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Winter 2022-23


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Just now, snowman19 said:

 

Yes, notice the past tense, as in restrengthened.

See, this is a perfect example of why you draw the ire of some posters....you just aren't very objective because you like to cherry pick data as part of an incessant, passive aggressive assault against winter enthusiasts.

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14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Of course there is some subsurface cold...its a la nina. But the fact of the matter is that the SURFACE has temporarily plateaued. Is it done strengthening? Highly unlikely given the calendar, but I'm not sure you or he realize how difficult it will be to peak at a strong ONI....again, NOT weekly....but ONI. And not all of that subsurface cold will upwell to the surface.....we've been hearing about these easterly trades for weeks causing upwelling, yet the surface just warmed rather significantly.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Of course there is some subsurface cold...its a la nina. But the fact of the matter is that the SURFACE has temporarily plateaued. Is it done strengthening? Highly unlikely given the calendar, but I'm not sure you or he realize how difficult it will be to peak at a strong ONI....again, NOT weekly....but ONI.

I don’t think it goes strong ONI as I have already said. However, high-end moderate/borderline strong is absolutely possible

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This honestly isn't directed at anyone in particular, but as a general rule, I wish there was less twitter regurgitation and more independent critical thinking.

Its brutal.

You’re killing it in here dude. And frankly, thank god you’re here.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You’re killing it in here dude. And frankly, thank god you’re here.

I just think we need to keep it real....do things look great for the mid Atlantic this winter? No; he's right about that. But lets not get carried away with la nina and imply that there is very little chance of any snow or appreciable cold. Right now, there is plenty of evidence that that will not be the case.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just think we need to keep it real....do things look great for the mid Atlantic this winter? No; he's right about that. But lets not get carried away with la nina and imply that there is very little chance of any snow or appreciable cold. Right now, there is plenty of evidence that that will not be the case.

I think December has the potential to be pretty banging, honestly. reminiscent of last Jan

and I also love seeing the ample amount of subsurface warmth near the dateline for next winter 

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just think we need to keep it real....do things look great for the mid Atlantic this winter? No; he's right about that. But lets not get carried away with la nina and imply that there is very little chance of any snow or appreciable cold. Right now, there is plenty of evidence that that will not be the case.

That’s correct

The  analogs are in and it’s not a snow drought nor heat wave 

 

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3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think December has the potential to be pretty banging, honestly. reminiscent of last Jan

and I also love seeing the ample amount of subsurface warmth near the dateline for next winter 

It would be night/day from last December.  I don't think I recorded any snow in McHenry last December which is unheard of.  It put the year in such a hole that it was almost impossible to finish normal snowfall.

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

It would be night/day from last December.  I don't think I recorded any snow in McHenry last December which is unheard of.  It put the year in such a hole that it was almost impossible to finish normal snowfall.

Even up here, near the Mass/NH border, I only mustered 2.75" this past December. It was brutal.

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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just think we need to keep it real....do things look great for the mid Atlantic this winter? No; he's right about that. But lets not get carried away with la nina and imply that there is very little chance of any snow or appreciable cold. Right now, there is plenty of evidence that that will not be the case.

I don’t think anyone in this forum implied that, in fact if you look at the total shut out winters, they were either super El Niño or neutral/La Nada following a Niña the previous winter 

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12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, notice the past tense, as in restrengthened.

See, this is a perfect example of why you draw the ire of some posters....you just aren't very objective because you like to cherry pick data as part of an incessant, passive aggressive assault against winter enthusiasts.

Enso not the sure hand it was in the past.  Would be interesting to have a strong  Nina and DC still gets decent cold and snow.  Some other proverbial assurities ENSO wise have had that happen since about 2000. 

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t think anyone in this forum implied that, in fact if you look at the total shut out winters, they were either super El Niño or neutral/La Nada following a Niña the previous winter 

Fair enough. True you have not explicitly said this, but some of your posts seem to insinuate as much. You think the Pacific will be hostile, and everything on the planet supports ++++NAO, so what in the world are we left to infer?

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1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Enso not the sure hand it was in the past.  Would be interesting to have a strong  Nina and DC still gets decent cold and snow.  Some other proverbial assurities ENSO wise have had that happen since about 2000. 

Nothing is a sure hand in weather, NVM seasonal forecasting...the moment that you feel otherwise is when you need to re evaluate. 

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nothing is a sure hand in weather, NVM seasonal forecasting...the moment that you feel otherwise is when you need to re evaluate. 

So, hear me out...Wouldn't a Nina producing anything beyond like...last year, be considered a bit of a random anomaly? Given all I read on here about all the various teleconnections, I'm trying to pull myself away from thinking ninas are indeed a predictable sure hand. It's just that I look at the last 5...and going back to the ones over the last 50 years, and they all (except 1995/96 of course) produced the same results! At least...the same snow results in terms of the totals and type of snowfall. Now...am I putting too much stock in that? Hard to look at something repeat with a specific ENSO and not think it's more of a sure thing. But I'm trying to have a more open mind, lol

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So, hear me out...Wouldn't a Nina producing anything beyond like...last year, be considered a bit of a random anomaly? Given all I read on here about all the various teleconnections, I'm trying to pull myself away from thinking ninas are indeed a predictable sure hand. It's just that I look at the last 5...and going back to the ones over the last 50 years, and they all produced the same results! At least...the same snow results in terms of the totals and type of snowfall. Now...am I putting too much stock in that? Hard to look at something repeat with a specific ENSO and not think it's more of a sure thing. But I'm trying to have a more open mind, lol

Well, they are more of a sure thing the further south you go....but I think the key for you guys is have some combo of an east based, weak, neg polar indexes, and some periods of PNA. 1995 had all of these, plus a beast STJ, which is why it was an orgie.

I should mention that the bottom line is you need Canada cold to have a shot...no source, no chance. This is why 2011-2012 was such a train wreck.

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5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fair enough. True you have not explicitly said this, but some of your posts seem to insinuate as much. You think the Pacific will be hostile, and everything on the planet supports ++++NAO, so what in the world are we left to infer?

While I don’t think 97-98, 01-02, 11-12 or 19-20 are walking through the door, IMO the preliminary indicators right now are not encouraging for any sustained Atlantic or arctic (-AO, -NAO) blocking nor are they for any sustained PAC (+PNA, -EPO) blocking. I also think this La Niña is being underestimated by some, it is very well coupled (MEI) and it will definitely make its presence felt. As I’ve said before, while I doubt strong, I can easily see a high-end moderate ONI peak 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

While I don’t think 97-98, 01-02, 11-12 or 19-20 are walking through the door, IMO the preliminary indicators right now are not encouraging for any sustained Atlantic or arctic (-AO, -NAO) blocking nor are they for any sustained PAC (+PNA, -EPO) blocking. I also think this La Niña is being underestimated by some, it is very well coupled (MEI) and it will definitely make its presence felt. As I’ve said before, while I doubt strong, I can easily see a high-end moderate ONI peak 

I think that MEI is really going to begin responding to some changes that have been set in motion over the next few months, but that remains to be seen. I am just under the impression that the ocean is going to lag the atmosphere a bit this season, and what plays out in terms of weather may not be entirely representative of a prototypical la nina. But I don't blame you for not buying into that..its a bit of a leap. 

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16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, they are more of a sure thing the further south you go....but I think the key for you guys is have some combo of an east based, weak, neg polar indexes, and some periods of PNA. 1995 had all of these, plus a beast STJ, which is why it was an orgie.

I should mention that the bottom line is you need Canada cold to have a shot...no source, no chance. This is why 2011-2012 was such a train wreck.

Ray I think the single most important issue for DC area is what are the synoptic features set up that gets very cold air around Mongolia and then disperses it over the pole and down thru Easter Canada and over NY/PA and n-nw of that

Can  you describe what set up and indexes correspond with that being able to happen? 

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7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that MEI is really going to begin responding to some changes that have been set in motion over the next few months, but that remains to be seen. I am just under the impression that the ocean is going to lag the atmosphere a bit this season, and what plays out in terms of weather may not be entirely representative of a prototypical la nina. But I don't blame you for not buying into that..its a bit of a leap. 

We shall see. I think this is going to be an Aleutian Ridge/High dependent winter, I expect that to be the biggest main feature given the Nina, question is, is it flat or poleward (-WPO)? You want as much -WPO as possible to keep Canada from getting overrun by PAC maritime air, so when you get blocking it can pull some arctic down

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Strong -PNA signal in Jan/Feb, especially with La Nina. I don't think there has ever been a La Nina on  satellite record that did not have a +anomaly in the NPH (North pacific high) region north of Hawaii. I think 95-96 is it, but that was after 8years of +ENSO in a row (the longest streak since 1800s). -PNA will correlate to -NAO, so watch out for maybe +NAO Dec and Mar if the leading indicator signals are right. My NAO index for DJFM has 50% chance of falling +0.16 to +1.24 for DJFM

vWatch out for a +NAO December

 

100.16.45.151.242.15.37.8.gif

 

 

2005 and 1983 were cold though

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8 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Ray I think the single most important issue for DC area is what are the synoptic features set up that gets very cold air around Mongolia and then disperses it over the pole and down thru Easter Canada and over NY/PA and n-nw of that

Can  you describe what set up and indexes correspond with that being able to happen? 

Not too sure about Mongolia, but over here I would say -AO/-EPO would be a good start.

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