Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,127
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Jdhuffmanhws
    Newest Member
    Jdhuffmanhws
    Joined

June 2022 General Discussion


 Share

Recommended Posts

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Mid 90s look to be in play on Thursday around Chicago, probably even at ORD but certainly at least MDW.

What the heck, I'll take a crack.

Deep mixing and dry(ing) ground should allow for getting the most out of this airmass even with 850 mb temps probably just below 20C. 

I'll go 96 at MDW and 94 at ORD.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, frostfern said:

A few models show a general half-inch, but GRR isn't buying it.  I still say better chance of a spoiler with around 0.25" area wide, but could be lower locally.  Cellular activity often finds a way to dance around GRR this year.  Even the north side of town isn't quite so parched as the southeast because of some more hefty nocturnal cells just barely missing around the 13th/14th.

0.53" this morning at GRR.  So much for less than 1" of rain in June.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What the heck, I'll take a crack.
Deep mixing and dry(ing) ground should allow for getting the most out of this airmass even with 850 mb temps probably just below 20C. 
I'll go 96 at MDW and 94 at ORD.
I went 95 MDW, 94 RFD, and 93 ORD. Your call is definitely reasonable. The two degree difference between MDW and ORD seems about right. Today they were more uniform because the lake breeze went through MDW slightly earlier than ORD.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I went 95 MDW, 94 RFD, and 93 ORD. Your call is definitely reasonable. The two degree difference between MDW and ORD seems about right. Today they were more uniform because the lake breeze went through MDW slightly earlier than ORD.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

I was contemplating 95 and 93 but ultimately went a degree higher.  Can't really go wrong too much as tomorrow is a pretty high confidence/low potential spread kind of day with full sun (or almost full sun) and good mixing.  I would be a bit surprised if the highs are anything other than 93/94 at ORD and 95/96 at MDW.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There remains a signal within the various model output that the
   environment may become marginally conducive to organized convection,
   including supercells, in a narrow corridor north of the
   international border (across parts of southeastern Ontario into the
   St. Lawrence Valley) by late Friday afternoon.  However, given the 
   rather weak forecast boundary-layer instability across this region,
   it seems probable that this activity will tend to weak as it spreads
   into a less unstable air mass near and southeast of the
   international border Friday evening.

July 1 in S/E ON.

I got 6.6 mm of rain this morning. Nice evening now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

MDW and ORD both at 89° currently. An area of cirrus moving through, leveling the playing field a bit.

So it appears sunny days with S-SW-W winds is when MDW outperforms all.

MDW out to a lead again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

92 MDW, 90 ORD

Something I noticed is that dews are still in the upper 50s at the Chicago sites.  The more aggressive guidance had them mixed out into the mid 50s by now.  Not a huge difference, but I wonder if it's an indication of mixing depth lacking just a hair up to this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mid 80's here today with low dews on a gusty W/SW wind. Feels real nice. But it looks like 70's after today for a few days. Even some upper 60's here in town with some of that lake wind forecast. Upper 70's is the norm max temp this time of year.

June precip norm is 4.23", and we ended up at 3.02". For YTD the norm is 13.89", and we are at 15.57". So we are doing ok here. Temp average for the YTD is 34.5F, and we stand at 29.9F, which reflects how cold the start of the year was into the spring.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

92 MDW, 90 ORD

Something I noticed is that dews are still in the upper 50s at the Chicago sites.  The more aggressive guidance had them mixed out into the mid 50s by now.  Not a huge difference, but I wonder if it's an indication of mixing depth lacking just a hair up to this point.

94 MDW and 91 ORD currently.:guitar:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/29/2022 at 8:18 AM, WestMichigan said:

0.53" this morning at GRR.  So much for less than 1" of rain in June.

And all it did was make the stat record more boring.  It's not like the pattern will change for July.  We need like three inches to really put a dent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GRR mentioned anomalously high mid-level pressure over the south pushing all the gulf moisture the into the SW US.  The monsoon started way early in the desert SW.  Colorado front range could see flooding storms at some point.  That's where our moisture is being stolen to.  They need the rain too... but it's kind of a weird pattern and it's supposed to persist for at least another week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Final high temps for today across the area...

94 MDW

92 ORD

92 RFD

94 Ex-Home

 

90°+ day tally for the year...

15 - MDW
15 - RFD
12 - Ex-Home
11 - Current Home
9 - ORD

Edit: Also, had a sneaky high of 90 at ex-home yesterday as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Final high temps for today across the area...

94 MDW

92 ORD

92 RFD

94 Ex-Home

 

90°+ day tally for the year...

15 - MDW
15 - RFD
11 - Current Home
11 - Ex-Home
9 - ORD

I've been 1-2 degrees too high at the airports like 3 times in a row now.  A little annoying, but that is probably easier to "fix" than missing in both directions.  

Noted for next time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Final high temps for today across the area...

94 MDW

92 ORD

92 RFD

94 Ex-Home

 

90°+ day tally for the year...

15 - MDW
15 - RFD
11 - Current Home
11 - Ex-Home
9 - ORD


By the way, I can confirm ORD did not run cool today.

MDW is clearly just doing something special.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/30/2022 at 11:19 AM, Hoosier said:

More colorful this week

20220628_midwest_trd.png

Wow, I didn't realize how dry it's been over such a large expanse. I was just looking at the numbers since around June 14/15, and parts of multiple states have seen essentially no rainfall over that period. Erie, PA (0.02"), several sites in Indiana with only a few hundredths of an inch, Detroit, MI (0.11"). Most sites under a quarter of an inch, with a few 1"+ but those were generally from one or two hit-or-miss events over that stretch. Even in eastern IA, it looks better with 2"+ generally but almost all of that from a single day. And other locations (i.e., Burlington) show little if any rain over that stretch (0.17"). The dryness extends all the way into western New York - Buffalo has had less than 1/3 of an inch since June 9.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...