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Central/Southern Plains Severe Weather Palooza (4/29 - 05/05)


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Just a few thoughts regarding tomorrow…

Models have trended south with the warm front. It was central Kansas a few days ago, to southern Kansas earlier today. Now 00z CAMs place the warm front across northern Oklahoma between 21-00z.

There’s strong model agreement that semi discrete storms or a cluster develop near the triple point and ride the warm front, now expected to be draped WNW to ESE across northern to east-central Oklahoma.

My concern is that early day convection could possibly keep the effective warm front even farther south, possibly close to OKC. It probably won’t be quite that far south, but effects from morning convection, including outflow boundaries/intersections with the warm front will need to be watched.

Down the dryline, most guidance does not convect. Point forecast soundings from the HRRR between OKC and Lawton seem to suggest CI is unlikely, given lower quality boundary layer moisture, as opposed to the 3km NAM. The latter shows a more volatile environment right down to the Red River, but this could be overdone, similar to how Friday was modeled. The most realistic scenario is in between.

Bottom line, tomorrow looks similar to this past Friday, only shifted about 150 miles south. The significant severe threat could be pushed close to OKC, especially if early day convection keeps the warm front suppressed. Betting odds favor north-central OK at this point, with dryline initiation near/south of I-40 leaning toward unlikely. 

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Several hourly HRRR runs along with 00Z HRW-ARW and NSSL-ARW suggest classic intense supercell to bow echo evolution will occur from north-central to northeast OK. This lends confidence in amplifying severe threat probabilities. Significant tornadoes and very large hail will be most likely in the early supercell stage, with the latter transitioning to a significant damaging wind threat in a bowing QLCS towards the Ozark Plateau.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

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6 minutes ago, Amped said:

Watch just issued for most of OK east of the panhandle.

 

2 parts:

1) Kind of surprised it wasn't PDS tagged given probabilities

2) Apple size? Was hoping for something more outlandish, like DVDs

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4 minutes ago, Calderon said:

2 parts:

1) Kind of surprised it wasn't PDS tagged given probabilities

2) Apple size? Was hoping for something more outlandish, like DVDs

 Everything purple except severe wind. Pretty dangerous if you ask me.

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Wow, several strong tornadoes likely is quite ominous. I will say as someone who lives in South Carolina but grew up in the Detroit/Toledo area, it's amazing to see how stark the difference has been in weather between the Sun Belt and Northern US this season. Until the CONUS levels out a bit temperature wise I think we're going to have a rocky road to June.

Overall I have to say I'm super impressed at how many setups have had terrific ingredients this year for intense/violent tornadoes

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2 parts:
1) Kind of surprised it wasn't PDS tagged given probabilities
2) Apple size? Was hoping for something more outlandish, like DVDs

I had this same thought. We used to get PDS watches virtually every moderate risk day, but that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. Seems odd not to have gone with PDS language given the high-end environment in place.


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I believe a PDS watch is issued for 80% and up, but I’m guessing they didn’t go that high because of the potential for these storms to merge upscale somewhat quickly. I bet they’d have gone PDS if it looked like this were going to stay discrete for longer.

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It should be a surface-based updraft. Perhaps a brief moment when I believed the CC (correlation) looked low, as if a debris signature. But I don't know if the debris signature ever happened, or I suppose, nobody ever reported a tornado.

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4 minutes ago, Chinook said:

It should be a surface-based updraft. Perhaps a brief moment when I believed the CC (correlation) looked low, as if a debris signature. But I don't know if the debris signature ever happened, or I suppose, nobody ever reported a tornado.

Seems like DDC is so much more picky than any other NWS office. Reminds me of their "no." controversy from Twitter a few years ago as well.

 

Maybe worried about the panic a false alarm would draw given the proximity to folks near Greensburg so decided to be super diligent? 

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1 minute ago, Misstertwister said:

Boy that cold front sure is racing into western Ok. Methinks this undercuts and goes linear fast. Environment too ripe and storms popping up too quickly. 

Or it will just happen further SE.  Cells are breaking out ahead of the line already.

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56 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Wow, several strong tornadoes likely is quite ominous. I will say as someone who lives in South Carolina but grew up in the Detroit/Toledo area, it's amazing to see how stark the difference has been in weather between the Sun Belt and Northern US this season. Until the CONUS levels out a bit temperature wise I think we're going to have a rocky road to June.

Overall I have to say I'm super impressed at how many setups have had terrific ingredients this year for intense/violent tornadoes

The equillibrium is kind of balancing out right now for the Plains, which has been fairly quiet region-wide the past several years.

I'm more interested to see when the tide will turn for DFW specifically. It still continues to luck out so far with near-misses from the widespread/intense severe weather events we've seen (aside from some modest hail storms), ever since the June 2019 Derecho and then the October 2019 tornado in Dallas. I imagine the Metroplex's luck will also run out eventually. 

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Storms by Alva seem to all being showing the curvature such that they might be supercells. I would suppose they could compete quite a bit. Still kind of awesome to see every single storm looking like a kidney bean. I would think one or more storms will produce a tornado in that group.

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5 minutes ago, Powerball said:

The equillibrium is kind of balancing out right now for the Plains, which has been fairly quiet region-wide the past several years.

I'm more interested to see when the tide will turn for DFW specifically. It still continues to luck out so far with near-misses from the widespread/intense severe weather events we've seen (aside from some modest hail storms), ever since the June 2019 Derecho and then the October 2019 tornado in Dallas. I imagine the Metroplex's luck will also run out eventually. 

DFW did have an EF4 plow through it in Dec of 2015. Those types of events don't happen very often.

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20 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Storms by Alva seem to all being showing the curvature such that they might be supercells. I would suppose they could compete quite a bit. Still kind of awesome to see every single storm looking like a kidney bean. I would think one or more storms will produce a tornado in that group.

I’ve noticed significantly more SRH is to the east of these storms. If they don’t line up too soon, could see tornadoes shortly

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