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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?


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 Mesoscale Discussion 1575
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1210 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

   Areas affected...Northeast Ohio to southwestern New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 241710Z - 241915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop through the
   afternoon hours and will pose a threat for strong to severe winds. A
   watch is likely within the next hour.

   DISCUSSION...A field of growing cumulus is noted from northeast OH
   into northwest PA with a few deeper convective towers becoming
   evident, one of which has rapidly intensified within the past 20
   minutes. In the absence of stronger surface/low-level forcing, this
   activity is likely being fostered by broad ascent ahead of a
   mid-level perturbation across the Great Lakes, aided by rapidly
   decreasing MLCIN as surface temperatures warm into the mid 80s
   (based on a modified 15 UTC BUF sounding). While thunderstorm
   coverage in the near-term is somewhat uncertain given the weak/broad
   forcing for ascent, continued destabilization through the day should
   support the maintenance of the deepening convection. Strong winds
   (upwards of 40-50 knots) are noted within the lowest 3 km of
   regional soundings and VWP observations, which suggests that any
   developing storm will pose a strong to severe wind risk. 0-6 km bulk
   shear values near 35-40 knots will support storm organization,
   including the potential for supercells capable of large hail. A
   watch will likely be needed within the hour to address this concern
   as addition thunderstorms mature through the early afternoon.

 

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It is worth noting that
there are signals indicating a significant warmup to close out the
first week of August as a strong 590-595dam H500 ridge expands
across the central and eastern CONUS. As of this forecast update,
the Climate Prediction Center still has much of the Great Lakes
region under a moderate risk for excessive heat from 8/3-8/6.

hazards_d8_14_contours.png

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25 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Looks like a legit tornado on the ground in Wyoming county. You can see debris in the air on the radar apps. Crazy gate to gate shear too. Seems like a long track for around here. 

Yep. We've been talking about it in discord. 100% a tornado on the ground and likely a decent one. 

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