Wurbus Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 WBIR is showing what I thought MRX would show earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 March 12th could possibly be called Magic March 12th if this storm pans out for everyone that experienced the magic of March 12th, 1993. Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, Wurbus said: WBIR is showing what I thought MRX would show earlier. I see that snow is sneaking up into the high impact zone. Earlier it was at medium. I will say I like WBIR when it comes to snow forecast. They typically just shave off a couple of inches of the model or blends which is wise. Like you can tell they take into account what the data shows instead of just making up whatever. I like that they are transparent and often even post model runs on their forecast page and try to explain the probabilities in their forecast. Is Howell a snow weanie? Definitely seems more positive than the other guy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 The 18z Euro continues with a strung out look where the front runner low climbs the coast and washes out the pattern behind it and flattens the next, main storm a bit due to lack of separation. I can't find that look on other modeling. It was not on the Euro yesterday at this time. It went OTS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 18z Euro with basically the same look BTW...just the "less precip" look from 12z. Basically, same run with no big changes. Sorry, that earlier post might have sounded like something changed. Not really... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 41 minutes ago, John1122 said: Not such which model Accuweather uses. It says 1-3" for Crossville lol. They are usually the worst by far in my experience. My buddy checked it in the last big snow here and and it called for 6-10" in Batesville, AR where he lives (it was the only thing calling for anything close to that there) and he ended up with a few sleet pellets that never covered the ground fully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I feel like a broken record, but the 21z SREF went up again for the plateau & SE KY. Slight uptick for KNX it appears. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 18z Euro with basically the same look BTW...just the "less precip" look from 12z. Basically, same run with no big changes. Sorry, that earlier post might have sounded like something changed. Not really...I haven’t looked a lot today because I’ve got some family stuff going on but could the Euro be holding that 4 corners energy back too long? I know it use to have a bias of that but wasn’t sure if that got fixed last update . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 37 minutes ago, Wurbus said: I feel like a broken record, but the 21z SREF went up again for the plateau & SE KY. Slight uptick for KNX it appears. The mean is 4 inches for Memphis, 5 for Nashville and Knoxville. Each have a few 10+ inch big hitters. Nashville had a 15 incher. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 SREF mean is around 7 inches for the Plateau and SE KY. Around 4 inches for Tri/SWVa and nearly 4 for Chattanooga. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: The mean is 4 inches for Memphis, 5 for Nashville and Knoxville. Each have a few 10+ inch big hitters. Nashville had a 15 incher. Held steady here with 3.37”. In an encouraging change, zero members show a total shutout. One only has 0.25” or so. Big dog here is around 9”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Looking at KNX, the mean held steady, but much more agreement between 5-7 inches and the lowest member is 1.17. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 We are around 24 hours out for AMZ and our west sider from this starting. Shelby is under snow returns by 8pm CST tomorrow per the HRRR. It's coming in healthier out west than 18z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 HRRR is coming in quite a bit different. Low was near Asheville at 06z Saturday at 18z. Here at 00z its over South Central Alabama at the same hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Strengthening and heading NE now. Huge run shaping up it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Pulling through Central NC by 12z. Faster out than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Basically followed the SREF plumes. Up over the Plateau area and Mid Tn, and around the same over the East Valley. Looks like more snow out west vs 18z as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 18z HRRR 00z HRRR 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Maybe it's just wishful thinking but it seems all the models are trending snowier with each run *knocks on wood* 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I’m secretly overjoyed that 99% of NC misses out on this. I’ll consider it reverse CAD. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I’ll also add that the HRRR appears to show a dramatic improvement in BL temps throughout the southern valley on this run. 2.4” is the minimum over the UHI downtown on the river. Looks like most of Hamilton county is in the 3-4” range. That would be fantastic. As bad as the last two years were, I would settle for enough to cover the grass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Visual of the 21z SREF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 hours ago, Silas Lang said: Oh sorry, there was a little more for the far East. Goodness. Bit of a late response but... Well let's see how 0z holds up. I'm hoping the 3km fills the ETN "snowhole" but really even that much would be a nice close to the season. Dear God...mp4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Live look at all of us waiting on the NAM to finish. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Low pressure isn't as amped as the 18z run, but still looks to be a good track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Is it just me, or is the changeover happening quicker on the NAM? Comparing run to run the snow line keeps trending east quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Silas Lang said: Is it just me, or is the changeover happening quicker on the NAM? Comparing run to run the snow line keeps trending east quicker. It changed over faster on the HRRR too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Is it just me, or is the changeover happening quicker on the NAM? Comparing run to run the snow line keeps trending east quicker. I think it is to. The sleet/mix line is noticeably thinner on this run compared to the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 This looks like a reasonable run to me. Plateau & Mountains get plastered and a general 2-4 inches up through the valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now