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March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?


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We're now within 100 hrs of modeling of a regional/forum wide Winter weather event. Probably a good time to go ahead and fire up a dedicated thread. For those wanting snow accumulations, good luck. This system does look decent on the majority of ops and ensembles right now in its positioning and timing for cold air to be in place. Totals on the other hand are still up in the air. We shall see how the week unfolds.

 

Latest GFS operational...

1a65fcbe89d7eeb12c4b0b59bd888eae.gif

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Bad service at work unfortunately so the graphics won't load. From the last map I saw this morning it looked like the usual dry slot over the Chattanooga area. With 3--4 days to go anything can happen. We would call it a huge win to get some heavy bursts of snow with a light dusting here.

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42 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Did that drop 6 feet in southern Canada?  Is that the same storm?

I just switched to the Canada map and it looks like pivotal automatically switches it to cm.

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Here are Kuchera accumulations and also comparison of surface low placements.  Be sure to remember the new run is on the left.  The 0z run is on the right.  Track is pretty much my only concern at this point.  The CMC, GFS, and Euro are very similar w/ varying degrees of intensity.  Biggest concern is that this trends too far to the East at this point.  Heaviest snow axis at 12z is from the Cumberlands to the Smokies.

Screen_Shot_2022-03-08_at_1.41.51_PM.png


Screen_Shot_2022-03-08_at_1.40.22_PM.png

 

 

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So the 12z scoreboard is a Miller A inland runner on all three global models - varying strength and low placement.  The CMC likely has some energy handoff while the Euro and GFS are basically clean passes.  Strength and slp placement, as always, TBD.  I am wary after so many looks like this during the past winter which went poof!  Will wait for some continuity for future runs, but for now...track is the key.

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So the 12z scoreboard is a Miller A inland runner on all three global models - varying strength and low placement.  The CMC likely has some energy handoff while the Euro and GFS are basically clean passes.  Strength and slp placement, as always, TBD.  I am wary after so many looks like this during the past winter which went poof!  Will wait for some continuity for future runs, but for now...track is the key.

I’m trying not to get excited but here we are.


.
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8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


I’m trying not to get excited but here we are.


.

I know.  LOL.  That track(12z GFS/Euro) is the historical gold standard for E TN winter storms.  Whether it verifies or not remains to be seen.  Nailing down a track this winter for a good storm in E TN has proven to be a tough task!  

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The good thing is that cold air is in play.  It makes sense for a storm to fire on this boundary.  

What could go wrong?  The wave could fire too far to the east and the wave slip by too far to the east to do us any good.  The eastern trend has me a bit wary.  But...digging back through the Spring/Summer thread....modeling has had this storm for a week or more.  

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4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The good thing is that cold air is in play.  It makes sense for a storm to fire on this boundary.  

What could go wrong?  The wave could fire too far to the east and the wave slip by too far to the east to do us any good.  The eastern trend has me a bit wary.  But...digging back through the Spring/Summer thread....modeling has had this storm for a week or more.  

At some point, do you think we’ll see the NW trend come into play?  

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4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The good thing is that cold air is in play.  It makes sense for a storm to fire on this boundary.  

What could go wrong?  The wave could fire too far to the east and the wave slip by too far to the east to do us any good.  The eastern trend has me a bit wary.  But...digging back through the Spring/Summer thread....modeling has had this storm for a week or more.  

Yeah this thing has been pretty locked in for a week already. Kind of nuts. If this lands, it will be the biggest snow for the East this season. 

Here are MRX's thoughts: 

Big changes are in store for the late week and weekend as the upper
pattern begins to quickly amplify in response to a northern stream
shortwave from Alberta that digs south into the plains and phases
with a southern stream disturbance along the four-corners. The
resulting trough digs into the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS while
strong surface high pressure moves into the plains and strengthens a
thermal gradient from the western Gulf and across the Tennessee and
Ohio Valley. Increasing upper level ascent from a dual jet structure
accompanying strong advection of moisture poleward will support a
quick increase in precipitation Friday evening/night and continuing
into Saturday. A surface low will develop along the baroclinic zone
Friday night and move into the Southern Appalachians on Saturday
with increasing moisture wrapping around this circulation. At the
same time, an anomalous airmass will move into the area as 850mb
temperatures crash into the -10 to -15 C range. A quick transition
from rain to snow will likely occur late Friday night and into
Saturday. There is still a notable amount of uncertainty regarding
the actual track of this system, the arrival of the cold air and
just how much left over moisture will be available.

What is more certain is that temperatures will be well below normal
Saturday and Saturday night. Highs on Saturday will struggle to get
much above freezing with expected cloud cover along with cold air
advection. NBM suggests highs in the lower to mid 30`s across most
locations which is already several degree cooler than NBM guidance
24 hours ago. Saturday nights lows will likely crash into the teens
to lower 20`s which is 15-20 degrees below normal
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Looks like they are pretty confident in the cold air. 850 temps look to be pretty cold as well.

 

Anyone know of what kind of ratios we would be looking at? Pretty clear the back end could have some higher ratio snows. The Kutchera maps at least confirm that it will be averaging higher than 10:1. 

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