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Potential large EC storm/Heavy LES March 11-13th


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This looks like an advisory event to me for the most part at this stage. Like a general 3-6 with maybe a stripe of 6-9 somewhere along the front where the best forcing is (CNY?). The negative factors against a bigger event appear to include fast-moving wave, positive-neutral trough, less than ideal snow rates for most of the event, time of day (mostly a Saturday event), and a warm antecedent ground and air mass (m/u 40s friday).

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10 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

This looks like an advisory event to me for the most part at this stage. Like a general 3-6 with maybe a stripe of 6-9 somewhere along the front where the best forcing is (CNY?). The negative factors against a bigger event appear to include fast-moving wave, positive-neutral trough, less than ideal snow rates for most of the event, time of day (mostly a Saturday event), and a warm antecedent ground and air mass (m/u 40s friday).

Things can change but IMO this is a warning event for everyone but Buffalo. And that’s close

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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Things can change but IMO this is a warning event for everyone but Buffalo. And that’s close

Hopefully the Gfs/Gefs is right. Euro and cmc and their ensembles are much more muted.

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55 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

The 12z Canadian is a decent hit for both Upstate and Vermont.  Would love to lock that in!   

If I was you as of this early juncture I’d be headed to Vermont for this one, looks like a super safe bet unless your in far southern VT. Should be more wind and whiteouts there as well with the low rapidly deepening as it moves north closer to you. 

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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

NAM and mesos have schooled the globals all season...The models literally trend until its game time lol 

 

2 hours ago, vortmax said:

Who wants to bet the mesos are going to be more amped when they get in range? ;)

 

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Some monster hits on GEFS would appear to be skewing the mean a little bit. Also a little hard to tell how much tomorrow's event is skewing the indiv member panels. Can't narrow the interval unfortunately like you can for the 10:1 mean.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-neng-snow_total_multimember_panel-7172800.thumb.png.5600dd5b5f87a4023c1beb5ebae385fe.png

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5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Some monster hits on GEFS would appear to be skewing the mean a little bit. Also a little hard to tell how much tomorrow's event is skewing the indiv member panels. Can't narrow the interval unfortunately like you can for the 10:1 mean.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-neng-snow_total_multimember_panel-7172800.thumb.png.5600dd5b5f87a4023c1beb5ebae385fe.png

Members 4 or 24 please. Not very often you see a bunch of 24"+ members...Clearly there's a chance for a massive hit.

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30 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

If I was you as of this early juncture I’d be headed to Vermont for this one, looks like a super safe bet unless your in far southern VT. Should be more wind and whiteouts there as well with the low rapidly deepening as it moves north closer to you. 

This is kind of my thought.  I'm riding Friday at Sugarbush and Saturday at Killington.  Worst case scenario is we get rain most of Saturday (I'd bail on snowboarding) but a rapid changeover late day and then some "storm chasing" and fun obs Sat night into Sunday morning to somewhat make up for it.  And the best case scenario would be a wild powder day on Saturday and an amazing trip overall.

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6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

This is kind of my thought.  I'm riding Friday at Sugarbush and Saturday at Killington.  Worst case scenario is we get rain most of Saturday (I'd bail on snowboarding) but a rapid changeover late day and then some "storm chasing" and fun obs Sat night into Sunday morning to somewhat make up for it.  And the best case scenario would be a wild powder day on Saturday and an amazing trip overall.

Sugarbush is awesome. I was just there. Not much around there but super fun hill. 

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The leading edge of a potent mid-level trough will bring increasing
chances for a few showers to far western NY into the North Country
on Friday. The cold front tied to this mid-level trough begins to
enter the region Friday evening while a southern stream
trough...originating out of the Desert SW begins to interact with
the trough tracking out of the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.
Timing or phasing between these two troughs will then dictate how
far west or east the developing sfc low then tracks. This will be
the key in determining snow amounts for our area. Right now...the
best chance for accumulating snows will focus from the Genesee
Valley into the North Country with lesser amounts further west. Even
so...it appears that there will likely be some accumulating snows
with the eastward advancing cold front for all of the CWA. Will
mention this potential in the HWO. Keep in mind though...any changes
in any specific portion of this system has the potential to cause
significant changes to the forecast, 

 

Saturday...current guidance rapidly deepens the coastal sfc low(<
970 mb) as it steams up the Northeast coast. Any remaining synoptic
snows will gradually transition over to a hybrid of lake enhanced to
then pure lake effect snows as the day progresses. CAA on the back
side of this system sends 850 hPa down to -16C/-18C. BUFKIT profiles
show deep moisture extending well through the DGZ and upstream
connections coming into play. It`s likely that there will be some
accumulating lake snows east-southeast of the lakes. One other thing
to note...as the sfc low pulls away winds will become quite gusty.
That said...don`t want to get too far ahead as there is still a lot
of time for things to change for Saturday and Saturday night Stay
tuned.
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