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2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Discussion


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20 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


I somehow missed that gem.

LOT doesn’t even have precip in the grids right now, let alone t’storms. Based on current guidance, that’s the way to go for now.

I was once told by someone well known that the SPC is “The best at what they do”. Kind of comical, really.

Day 4 outlook contains the entire state of WI.

Here's MKX's take:

 

Quote
A strong shortwave is expected to rotate across the northern
Plains into the Great Lakes Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing a
cold front into the area late Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
Wind fields are fairly strong for this time of year, but the
early morning timing is not particularly favorable for severe
weather. Nonetheless, we`ll need to keep an eye on this risk for
the midweek time frame, especially of timing speeds up (Tuesday
afternoon) or slows down (pushing into the daytime hours
Wednesday).

They didn't even mention the Day 4 highlight, probably so as to avoid explicitly disagreeing with SPC, but it's pretty rare to see them implicitly do so anyway.

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12 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Day 4 outlook contains the entire state of WI.

Here's MKX's take:

 

They didn't even mention the Day 4 highlight, probably so as to avoid explicitly disagreeing with SPC, but it's pretty rare to see them implicitly do so anyway.

IWX decided to implicitly disagree with them in their afternoon AFD, citing models being all over the place 

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On 7/18/2022 at 5:54 PM, Chicago Storm said:

The Fri-Sun timeframe is looking interesting as we get closer.

Definitely better ridge placement compared to the 4th of July week period, which likely will help things a bit.

Holy shit, the environment on the 12Z NAM which just came into range for Saturday evening. :twister:

Granted, it's the NAM at the tail end of its range and it doesn't appear to break out any discrete precip in that environment (just a big cluster in WI, presumably a bowing MCS) but I don't believe the model is capable of resolving that, anyway.

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There have been a few tornado warnings today in Michigan and Ohio, and also some severe warned storms in Ontario. This may have been a real tornado, east-southeast of Mansfield. (report of a tree down at this location.)

5NmiRva.jpg

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  • 2 weeks later...
9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


heat isn’t looking great (not surprisingly), so moving attention to severe?

Faster timing has made me a little more interested locally.  A couple days ago I didn't think there was a prayer of getting anything down here on Wednesday.

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  • Chicago Storm changed the title to 2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Discussion

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