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2022 Short Range Severe Thread


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34 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

 

giphy.gif

 

 

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The main severe threat should be shifted east this season with the drought out west.  Mildly optimistic about things especially as we head into summer. 
 

for this weekend, looking at a strongly forced line to push nw out of Iowa and give us some gusty winds

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Yeah, for Saturday surface/500 mb look intriguing and have for quite a while, but paltry instability values have also been a consistent aspect of the model forecasts despite relatively high dewpoints for the latitude and time of year. As I've mentioned, it can happen but it takes absolutely on point kinematics and really cold air aloft (3/15/16 being a good example). At this point not really seeing a strong signal toward that, SPC's areal outline seems more like a "hedge our bets" type of forecast.

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NAM suggests even more meager instability than the GFS despite what appear to be decent lapse rates ahead of the cold front...looks like Saturday will be a "save the gas and enjoy the rain" kind of day at this point. Would like to bottle that forecast 500mb pattern and repeat it in about 6-8 weeks, though. :twister::twister:

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2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

NAM suggests even more meager instability than the GFS despite what appear to be decent lapse rates ahead of the cold front...looks like Saturday will be a "save the gas and enjoy the rain" kind of day at this point. Would like to bottle that forecast 500mb pattern and repeat it in about 6-8 weeks, though. :twister::twister:

The NAM often struggles in the boundary layer for some reason at this time of year.  I don't know if it thinks there's going to be snowcover or something.  Would definitely side with warmer guidance.

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I hope this isn't too far off topic. We have a La Nina winter, once again. Don't you think it is about time that a La Nina winter would bring about some springtime patterns favorable for greater than average tornadoes? I mean this possibly could be anywhere from the standard tornado alley all the way through "Ohio Valley Alley." The unusual part of this is that, this La Nina winter did bring about tornadoes, in WINTER, on December 10th and 15th. So you could argue that some of the Midwest is way above average for springtime tornadoes if you count December 1st as the beginning of springtime.

 

on to the topic

the 18z NAM has this in Iowa

LA5PPL4.png

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

I hope this isn't too far off topic. We have a La Nina winter, once again. Don't you think it is about time that a La Nina winter would bring about some springtime patterns favorable for greater than average tornadoes? I mean this possibly could be anywhere from the standard tornado alley all the way through "Ohio Valley Alley." The unusual part of this is that, this La Nina winter did bring about tornadoes, in WINTER, on December 10th and 15th. So you could argue that some of the Midwest is way above average for springtime tornadoes if you count December 1st as the beginning of springtime.

 

on to the topic

the 18z NAM has this in Iowa

LA5PPL4.png

At a glance, that sounding ironically has a lot more CAPE than earlier runs, but wonky directional shear and paltry SRH.

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3 hours ago, IWXwx said:
Who's heading to Iowa this afternoon/evening? :twister:

Thought about it, but the best action looks to be a little too far west for my liking and there are issues with the setup besides marginal moisture that decrease my confidence in more than transient supercellular mode.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

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SPC went up to 10% on the 20Z outlook for parts of SW/SC IA. Tornado watch out. As usual, going to make me bite my nails on choosing not to go, but I stand my my assertion that the window for quality tornadic supercells, if any, will be quite narrow.

They also added a 70% contour to the general thunder outlook, which Madison is on the eastern extent of. :thumbsup:

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There has also now been a confirmed tor near Corning in sw IA. That makes two confirmed.  Was not really expecting tors out of this set up but will have to watch.  Increasing tor threat over south central IA per recent meso discussion.

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IAC001-121-052300-  
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220305T2300Z/  
MADISON IA-ADAIR IA-  
421 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR MADISON  
AND SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES...  
      
AT 421 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF  
GREEN VALLEY LAKE, OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF CRESTON, MOVING NORTHEAST  
AT 40 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TWO INCH HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
WINTERSET, EAST PERU, MACKSBURG AND WINTERSET-MADISON COUNTY AIRPORT.  
  

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
439 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022  
  
IAC049-121-153-181-052315-  
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220305T2315Z/  
POLK IA-MADISON IA-DALLAS IA-WARREN IA-  
439 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR  
SOUTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS AND  
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...  
          
AT 439 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED OVER WINTERSET, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY   
         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES   
         WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
         BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION   
         IS POSSIBLE.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
DES MOINES, WEST DES MOINES, INDIANOLA, NORWALK, PLEASANT HILL,  
WINTERSET, WINDSOR HEIGHTS, CARLISLE, SAYLORVILLE, SOUTHRIDGE MALL,  
IOWA STATE FAIRGROUNDS, PRINCIPAL PARK, DES MOINES INT'L AIRPORT,  
DRAKE STADIUM AND KNAPP CENTER, IOWA EVENTS CE

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
451 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022  
  
IAC049-121-153-181-052315-  
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220305T2315Z/  
POLK IA-MADISON IA-DALLAS IA-WARREN IA-  
451 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR  
SOUTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS AND  
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...  
      
AT 451 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF AVENUE OF THE SAINTS EVENT CENTER, OR 8  
MILES EAST OF WINTERSET, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. DAMAGE HAS BEEN   
         REPORTED NEAR THE WINTERSET AREA AND JUST SOUTH.  
  
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY   
         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES   
         WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
         BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION   
         IS POSSIBLE.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
DES MOINES, WEST DES MOINES, INDIANOLA, NORWALK, PLEASANT HILL,  
WINDSOR HEIGHTS, CARLISLE, SAYLORVILLE, SOUTHRIDGE MALL, IOWA STATE  
FAIRGROUNDS, PRINCIPAL PARK, DES MOINES INT'L AIRPORT, DRAKE STADIUM  
AND KNAPP CENTER, IOWA EVENTS CENTER, HARTFORD, MARTENSDALE, CUMMING,  
PATTERSON, BEVINGTON AND SPRING HILL.  
  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
505 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES  HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...  
  WESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...  
  NORTH CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 545 PM CST.  
  
* AT 505 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER NORWALK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS   
           MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE   
           HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
           BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE   
           DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  DES MOINES INT'L AIRPORT AROUND 510 PM CST.  
  SOUTHRIDGE MALL, PRINCIPAL PARK AND IOWA EVENTS CENTER AROUND 515   
  PM CST.  
  DES MOINES, PLEASANT HILL, CARLISLE AND IOWA STATE FAIRGROUNDS   
  AROUND 520 PM CST.  
  PRAIRIE MEADOWS AND ADVENTURELAND AMUSEMENT PARK 

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