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Feb 2-4th Snowstorm- Observation Thread


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Models definitely busted high on total precipitation.. WPC had the whole area at around 1"-1.25" of total precipitation which clearly didn't happen.. Downsloping did take place right where the models had it, lacona only picked up 2.9" of snow.. Here idk, didn't measure lol But it was enough to at least get me some morning exercise with the blower...

GetMap (27).gif

GetMap (28).gif

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Models definitely busted high on total precipitation.. WPC had the whole area at around 1"-1.25" of total precipitation which clearly didn't happen.. Downsloping did take place right where the models had it, lacona only picked up 2.9" of snow.. Here idk, didn't measure lol But it was enough to at least get me some morning exercise with the blower...

GetMap (27).gif

GetMap (28).gif

I think it verified here

2/3

2022&cp=0

2/4

2022&cp=0

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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Models definitely busted high on total precipitation.. WPC had the whole area at around 1"-1.25" of total precipitation which clearly didn't happen.. Downsloping did take place right where the models had it, lacona only picked up 2.9" of snow.. Here idk, didn't measure lol But it was enough to at least get me some morning exercise with the blower...

GetMap (27).gif

GetMap (28).gif

wasn't that forecast for the entire event? What fell wednesday night into Thursday AM?

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2 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I didn't actually lose much of my snowpack. I'd say I have about a foot of snow on the ground. Snowbanks are so high that it's hard to see when backing out of the driveway.

Nice! I have about 11" on the ground now. the last 5" though is pure cement. Last night during a walk you could still feel like the slush under the dry powder. 

After looking at the long range I think its almost a lock that Toronto and Buffalo have snow cover for all of February 

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7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

wasn't that forecast for the entire event? What fell wednesday night into Thursday AM?

Yeah forgot about that, was still a little low, at least compared to WPC forecast but not terrible..

GFS and Euro probably did the best even though they may of still been to high for northern Oswego...

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2022-02-04T122000.210.png

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2022-02-04T122013.900.png

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2022-02-04T122031.759.png

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2022-02-04T122107.840.png

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Highest totals were Lockport and perrysburg with 16.8” and 16.5”. Highest in Erie was 13.6”

https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html

Someone in Lockport does not know how to measure…either the spotter who measured 16.8” measured twice or the spotter that measured 9.6 needs a new method…

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2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Someone in Lockport does not know how to measure…either the spotter who measured 16.8” measured twice or the spotter that measured 9.6 needs a new method…

Well they are 3-4 miles apart. The one that measured higher was closer to Lake Ontario and likely had lake enhanced totals while the other was 2.3” Ese of Lockport. Also if you weren’t measuring every 6 Hours with this pixie your totals would be much lower as it compacted quick. 

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Well they are 3-4 miles apart. The one that measured higher was closer to Lake Ontario and likely had lake enhanced totals while the other was 2.3” Ese of Lockport. Also if you weren’t measuring every 6 Hours with this pixie your totals would be much lower as it compacted quick. 

That’s why I wonder if their method of measuring was sloppy or incorrect. 

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My P&C forecast (aligns with mesos, but not their snow map)...which to believe?? Yet the WSW only goes until 1PM.

This Afternoon
Snow before 5pm, then snow showers likely after 5pm. High near 21. North wind 11 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow showers likely before 8pm, then snow between 8pm and 4am, then snow showers likely after 4am. Low around 12. North wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
 
 
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37 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

lowville coop melted down .6 with 8" of snow. Not sure if that liquid number is right, but thats like 30-1 ratios. Seems pretty high honestly. 

Agree.  Noone was reporting ratios that high upstate. Maybe one of the hilltops on the Chattaqua ridge saw that but that's about it.

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16 minutes ago, vortmax said:

My P&C forecast (aligns with mesos, but not their snow map)...which to believe?? Yet the WSW only goes until 1PM.

This Afternoon
Snow before 5pm, then snow showers likely after 5pm. High near 21. North wind 11 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow showers likely before 8pm, then snow between 8pm and 4am, then snow showers likely after 4am. Low around 12. North wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
 
 

I find point and click is better. Updated more often than the stupid maps.

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9 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Agree.  Noone was reporting ratios that high upstate. Maybe one of the hilltops on the Chattaqua ridge saw that but that's about it.

Maybe I'm missing something here lol 0.6" of liquid x 30/1 ratios would be 18" of snow.. Ratios would be more in line of 13/1..

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See this is why I post unrealistic Kuchera maps during the tracking. It’s a sliver of happiness before we have to measure and melt the snow and actually be honest. 

It’s like seeing analysts pick your favorite NFL team to win. You know it don’t mean shit but you still smile in the moment. 
 

:mapsnow:

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