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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season


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13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

You say this every season and then the tropics heat up.

I wouldnt say every season. Last season when people were saying  it was  going to be an east  coast season and  a  long  lasting season i disagreed and  it wasnt. Right  now  the  MJO is supposedly  favorable yet  nothing  is  happening. The  MJO isnt going to stay favorable and  if  it  goes  negative  in mid aug the season might  not start till mid sept. If the  MJO is favorable  it sure  isnt  producing any clouds.

 

If anyone still thinks  its going to be an active season please  chime  in.

 

Here  is the  1933 hurricane season animation. How  could a season like that  or  2004/05 happen? 2 cat4's so close to each other.

 

 

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Heat returning to Europe? This  might  be the reason after the season people  use  for  busted high cane  numbers. Everything  is  interconnected and  its  possible the  same  pattern baking  Europe  is  putting  a tight  snug  lid  on the tropics.

It  makes sense that with a super ridge  locked  in over Europe it would also have the effect  of  pumping super duper  bone dry dusty air  into the tropics. It  is rather amazing with a supposed  favorable  MJO its almost  impossible for a tropical cloud to form.

If  i remember right 2003 had a  European heat wave with the ATL having alot  of weak sauce and  out to sea  nothings. Like  last season it was a  1 storm season with Isabel. Can 1 storm find  great  conditions  in an overall horrid ATL this season?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Atlantic_hurricane_season

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5 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Heat returning to Europe? This  might  be the reason after the season people  use  for  busted high cane  numbers. Everything  is  interconnected and  its  possible the  same  pattern baking  Europe  is  putting  a tight  snug  lid  on the tropics.

It  makes sense that with a super ridge  locked  in over Europe it would also have the effect  of  pumping super duper  bone dry dusty air  into the tropics. It  is rather amazing with a supposed  favorable  MJO its almost  impossible for a tropical cloud to form.

If  i remember right 2003 had a  European heat wave with the ATL having alot  of weak sauce and  out to sea  nothings. Like  last season it was a  1 storm season with Isabel. Can 1 storm find  great  conditions  in an overall horrid ATL this season?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Atlantic_hurricane_season

1. It is only July 24th! What's happened til now has practically no bearing on how the rest of the season will play out per actual stats.

2. There has been no study connecting European heat and quieter Atlantic hurricane seasons. There was also major European heat in 2019 and 2017. Yet, the Atlantic was active in 2019 with 132 ACE/Dorian/Humberto/18 NS. Also, it was hyperactive in 2017 with the 7th highest ACE/Harvey/Irma/6 MH! Besides, there is no super ridge "locked in" over Europe. What matters most is the setup 1-3 months from now, not the next couple of weeks.

3. In 2003 you said Isabel was going to harmlessly recurve and then your area unfortunately got slammed. Thankfully you were ok, but how can we take you seriously about the rest of the season on the east coast when you blew Isabel so badly just days out?

4. 2003 having "a lot of weak sauce and out to sea nothings"? Well, it had a way above average ACE of 177. Besides Isabel, Fabian was a cat 3-4 for a full week and it slammed Bermuda as a cat 3. Also, H Claudette hit TX. 

5. I already gave a reason (3rd year La Nina stats) why I don't think 2022 will end up hyperactive though I still lean to it ending up active. As of now, I'm in the general vicinity of 110-140 ACE. That's significantly above the long-term average even though it is a little below the 150s average since 1995 for non-El Nino seasons.

6. Living not too far inland and thus not wanting to have my family's and my lives badly disrupted, I certainly would love to have less to worry about with the season being weak or at least quiet near the SE US. But I just don't see a weak season nor one not having significant effects on the US. Third year La Nina analogs say watch out Gulf coast of FL especially!

 

 

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We’re in the 3rd week of July and we have people posting with certainty that the season is over? I’ve been away from this thread bc we are not in the meat of hurricane season and yet people are declaring it dead or a bust? I’m not even going to justify my reasoning, but please get back to me in October. 

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11 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Right  now  the  MJO is supposedly  favorable yet  nothing  is  happening. The  MJO isnt going to stay favorable and  if  it  goes  negative  in mid aug the season might  not start till mid sept.

Logic not even once.

Statement #1 implies that MJO doesn't have as much bearing as people may think.

Statement #2 implies that the MJO going negative will have a large bearing on the season.

 

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There is very little reason at this time to think this season will end up anything other than above average, though the MDR is a little cooler than I'd probably expect. 

That said, below the surface, things still look fine, especially in the western Atlantic. The monsoon trough is an issue right now in the MDR, but that won't last forever and even if it did have an extended stay, as CV season begins waves often muddle through a hostile eastern MDR to find more favorable conditions further west. 

ohc_naQG3_ddc.gif

 

h26_naQG3_ddc.gif

 

No concern over a busted forecast at this time. As for the steering pattern, that's hard to predict five days out let alone 4-8 weeks. Stick with climatology and the statistical analysis of past activity. The more active, the greater the risk to the US and Caribbean. 

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On 7/19/2022 at 2:05 PM, ldub23 said:

No change  in the  pattern as  of  aug 04. Protective  offshore trof, low  pressure  in northeast. If the  euros's big  ridge and  jb's wheel are going to appear  we  need to see a  pattern reversal rather  soon. Another  hurricane  in the east  pac  though

It's July

On 7/22/2022 at 12:02 PM, ldub23 said:

Atlantic  has possible disturbances while the east  pac  has  hurricanes. I do think August will be rightside  up, not  sideways

It's July

14 hours ago, ldub23 said:

I wouldnt say every season. Last season when people were saying  it was  going to be an east  coast season and  a  long  lasting season i disagreed and  it wasnt. Right  now  the  MJO is supposedly  favorable yet  nothing  is  happening. The  MJO isnt going to stay favorable and  if  it  goes  negative  in mid aug the season might  not start till mid sept. If the  MJO is favorable  it sure  isnt  producing any clouds.

If anyone still thinks  its going to be an active season please  chime  in.

It's July

9 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Heat returning to Europe? This  might  be the reason after the season people  use  for  busted high cane  numbers. Everything  is  interconnected and  its  possible the  same  pattern baking  Europe  is  putting  a tight  snug  lid  on the tropics.

It  makes sense that with a super ridge  locked  in over Europe it would also have the effect  of  pumping super duper  bone dry dusty air  into the tropics. It  is rather amazing with a supposed  favorable  MJO its almost  impossible for a tropical cloud to form.

It's July

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9 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Heat returning to Europe? This  might  be the reason after the season people  use  for  busted high cane  numbers. Everything  is  interconnected and  its  possible the  same  pattern baking  Europe  is  putting  a tight  snug  lid  on the tropics.

It  makes sense that with a super ridge  locked  in over Europe it would also have the effect  of  pumping super duper  bone dry dusty air  into the tropics. It  is rather amazing with a supposed  favorable  MJO its almost  impossible for a tropical cloud to form.

Also, this is demonstrably incorrect. Thanks for playing, though!

67_168_215_235_204_22_19_52.gif.b0d34a4b9b75a568f02e64f467ab0004.gif

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11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

There is very little reason at this time to think this season will end up anything other than above average, though the MDR is a little cooler than I'd probably expect. 

That said, below the surface, things still look fine, especially in the western Atlantic. The monsoon trough is an issue right now in the MDR, but that won't last forever and even if it did have an extended stay, as CV season begins waves often muddle through a hostile eastern MDR to find more favorable conditions further west. 

ohc_naQG3_ddc.gif

 

h26_naQG3_ddc.gif

 

No concern over a busted forecast at this time. As for the steering pattern, that's hard to predict five days out let alone 4-8 weeks. Stick with climatology and the statistical analysis of past activity. The more active, the greater the risk to the US and Caribbean. 

One  positive thing today  is the  predicted  pattern in 16 days. If we can just get this to lock in till November.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png

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There have been waves of dust coming off the African coast.  I'm new to this and to FL...Is this normal activity for this time of the year?  I'm told it can dampen tropical activity, is this true?
The Sub-Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is commonly active during peak Summer months due to positioning of the Azores semi-permanent subtropical ridge placement. Azores ridging tends to be strongest May through August and until it retrogrades west with an increase in western Atlantic (WAR) 600dm heights, which generally takes hold by September. It's generally back and forth in August leading into ASO ridge placement. Therefore, it's quite common to see lifted Saharan dust get pulled across the Atlantic basin and MDR when Azores ridging and Saharan ridge are strong and conjoined. We do still see plumes advance as late as September, but waning during peak CV/MDR portion of the Atlantic tropical/hurricane season. So nothing out of the ordinary about SAL so far this year. And yes, SAL can definitely have a negative effect on tropical activity in the MDR when present and particularly strong.
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1 hour ago, floridapirate said:

There have been waves of dust coming off the African coast.  I'm new to this and to FL...Is this normal activity for this time of the year?  I'm told it can dampen tropical activity, is this true?

1. Totally normal. Strong waves of dust (called SAL) are most common from late June through mid August. Just like tropical waves coming off Africa, waves of SAL coming off are normal. They originate from strong enough wind storms over the Sahara that result in dust thousands of feet up into the air (sandstorms) that then travel westward into the Atlantic with the same prevailing easterly steering flow that brings tropical waves westward from Africa. SAL waves come off on average every 3-5 days. 

2. Yes, each SAL wave is associated with a lowered chance for a tropical cyclone to form due to a combo of much drier air vs tropical air and also increased vertical wind shear. But as we get well into August, the protection from SAL waves typically reduces and thus is a strong factor in increased tropical activity by late August and even more so in September.

3. SAL often causes extra colorful sunsets over Florida in summer.

 

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/state/2022/05/23/saharan-dust-florida-2022-georgia-map-tropical-cyclone/9892279002/

Edit: I see that windspeed posted while I was still typing. So, you get two replies on this.

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3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

One  positive thing today  is the  predicted  pattern in 16 days. If we can just get this to lock in till November.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png

I'm not piling on, but at 2 weeks out, I'd use ensemble 500 mb ensemble means and realize it is still, at best, a guide, not the answer.  384 hour run of GFS MSLP doesn't mean that much

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3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I'm not piling on, but at 2 weeks out, I'd use ensemble 500 mb ensemble means and realize it is still, at best, a guide, not the answer.  384 hour run of GFS MSLP doesn't mean that much

I  dont  mind the  piling  on. If im right  like  last  year  i will be crowing. If im wrong and CSU's numbers  verify then i will eat the crow. I use this  16 day map because my idea  of a  hurricane season is a  hurricane able to get  into the  picture and  be a threat to the  US. Anything  else i ignore( like east  coast snow  lovers  ignore  blizzards  in Alberta)

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8 hours ago, floridapirate said:

There have been waves of dust coming off the African coast.  I'm new to this and to FL...Is this normal activity for this time of the year?  I'm told it can dampen tropical activity, is this true?

Totally normal. June + July combined don't even account for 10% of climatological hurricane activity.

 

Here's a gif of monthly 500mb heights, long term mean, 1991-2020 climo. Observe the yearly maxima in ridging in July. This is why right now is the peak of Saharan dust season (and also season cancel season).

It's also why August onwards constitute about 93% of climatological hurricane activity.

 

 

ezgif-2-093082f2e3.gif.dbce4b0cff65f953a03bd2f52acba286.gif

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Just now, ldub23 said:

Euro says the  Sahara desert  has  come to the Atlantic. Is this the  look of a  hyperactive season?

 

970e884c9cdea041f37f484900f7d0f4.jpg

Yeah surely 1080h will verify! 100% confidence

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31 minutes ago, StruThiO said:

Yeah surely 1080h will verify! 100% confidence

Well, by all means show  us some  hyperactive  maps. MJO, MJO, Where for art thou, MJO? July? The desert goes all the way till the  heart  of the season. Now  it  looks  like the season wont  begin till after sept  08. Is  it safe to say that August isnt going to be sideways, unless  you are  looking at a  calendar  upside down and August  in the Atlantic resembles  February. What that  map tells  me  is we will see a few  weak nothings try to spin up just  off the african coast then die  of thirst as they hit the  Sahara or  waves will come  off too far  north to mean anything to anyone. Please i hope for  an el nino next season, it cant be worse than the  last  2 seasons. We can still hang  our  hatts  on the  possibilty  of a  1 storm season and something  managing to find a window  of  moisture in a sea  of  sand. I think CSU  comes  out with an update  on Aug 04. Much lower  numbers  coming.  I still think the European heatwave will be seen by forecasters  like CSU for the reason the season died.

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Please i hope for  an el nino next season, it cant be worse than the  last  2 seasons.

Well, this does seems likely; after 3 years of La Nina it is likely to have exhausted itself and the El Nino response will probably initiate in Winter thru Spring 23

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2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Well, by all means show  us some  hyperactive  maps. MJO, MJO, Where for art thou, MJO? July? The desert goes all the way till the  heart  of the season. Now  it  looks  like the season wont  begin till after sept  08. Is  it safe to say that August isnt going to be sideways, unless  you are  looking at a  calendar  upside down and August  in the Atlantic resembles  February. What that  map tells  me  is we will see a few  weak nothings try to spin up just  off the african coast then die  of thirst as they hit the  Sahara or  waves will come  off too far  north to mean anything to anyone. Please i hope for  an el nino next season, it cant be worse than the  last  2 seasons. We can still hang  our  hatts  on the  possibilty  of a  1 storm season and something  managing to find a window  of  moisture in a sea  of  sand. I think CSU  comes  out with an update  on Aug 04. Much lower  numbers  coming.  I still think the European heatwave will be seen by forecasters  like CSU for the reason the season died.

Lol I mean we have a similar progression so far in MJO this year (maybe a week or two earlier) to last and you see what happened last year we pushed into 1/2 things took off mid august. Will it happen exactly like this maybe not but cant discredit the fact the pattern seems to be going this way.

202107.phase.90days.gif

n8n8kscrprwzmfekmgyn8tylrs8whjn.png

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4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Lol I mean we have a similar progression so far in MJO this year (maybe a week or two earlier) to last and you see what happened last year we pushed into 1/2 things took off mid august. Will it happen exactly like this maybe not but cant discredit the fact the pattern seems to be going this way.

202107.phase.90days.gif

n8n8kscrprwzmfekmgyn8tylrs8whjn.png

To add the only thing different from this year to last is we had a weakening La Nina where this year it has maintained itself much longer. Im not exactly sure how that will play out for this year but if we look at the last 3 peat La Nina episodes (final year of it) 1975 and 2000 they both had low ACE ratings but activity didn't pick up until about mid August. Give it like 3 weeks before we start ringing those potential low activity bells.

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8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

To add the only thing different from this year to last is we had a weakening La Nina where this year it has maintained itself much longer. Im not exactly sure how that will play out for this year but if we look at the last 3 peat La Nina episodes (final year of it) 1975 and 2000 they both had low ACE ratings but activity didn't pick up until about mid August. Give it like 3 weeks before we start ringing those potential low activity bells.

My point would  be  1975 and  2000 werent what was advertised  by most  if  not all the seasonal forecasters. If we do have another  1975 or  2000 then i will feel vindicated  im my ideas.

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5 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

My point would  be  1975 and  2000 werent what was advertised  by most  if  not all the seasonal forecasters. If we do have another  1975 or  2000 then i will feel vindicated  im my ideas.

I wasn't following hurricanes back then but just taking a look at the wikipedia page, the 2000 season lived up to or outdid the forecasts. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Pre-season_outlooks

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

My point would  be  1975 and  2000 werent what was advertised  by most  if  not all the seasonal forecasters. If we do have another  1975 or  2000 then i will feel vindicated  im my ideas.

 So what? Then the broken clock would receive mucho kudos. We would then be in awe of your absolutely amazing psychic abilities for 2022. There's a first time for everything and I'd expect you to keep reminding us of your incredible prediction in future seasons when you do your traditional downplaying. "Remember what I said about 2022 blah blah...." I guess you're going to milk this for as long as it stays quiet even though quiet now is not at all out of the ordinary. You are very good at what you do but it is just shtick to try to get to especially the newbies.


 This is so retro for the very longterm folks here. I feel like we're going back in time lol.

 

 But as @cptcatzsaid, 2000 was actually more active than expected. And 2022 isn't forecasted to be hyperactive.

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Could  this end  up being the deadest  of dead seasons? Another  person joins the bandwagon. Beginning  of the season now  pushed  back to sometime  in Sept. Has the  cane season began and ended  in the same  month? I  would advise CSU  to cut  numbers down to 10/3/1, but thats  only assuming the season actually  keeps  going  in OCT which seems  unlikely. Why were the  forecasters  so horribly  wrong  about this season? Please  chime  in on why they did such a horrible  job.

If this  is what we get  in a  La  Nina please for all thats  holy  give  us a super el nino next season. It  cant  possibly  be  any deader than this season was. I think the  best  idea  is for forecasters to dump trying to forecast a season in advance. Instead, just  look at the  pattern after the start  of the season. I was wondering  back in early  june where all the hype  was  coming  from when it seemed rather  obvious the  overall pattern was NOT  going to produce a season of  note. This season was quite dead. Lets  hope  next season has a  bit  of  moisture  in the tropics. 

 

Aug  is  clearly  not  going to be sideways. CSU  should  at  least  cut their  forecast  in half. Now we wait to see when JB says he was  wrong as well.

 

 

 

This  might be the  most active the Atlantic  looks  till SEPT 15.

 

202207261410.gif

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Could  this end  up being the deadest  of dead seasons? Another  person joins the bandwagon. Beginning  of the season now  pushed  back to sometime  in Sept. Has the  cane season began and ended  in the same  month? I  would advise CSU  to cut  numbers down to 10/3/1, but thats  only assuming the season actually  keeps  going  in OCT which seems  unlikely. Why were the  forecasters  so horribly  wrong  about this season? Please  chime  in on why they did such a horrible  job.

If this  is what we get  in a  La  Nina please for all thats  holy  give  us a super el nino next season. It  cant  possibly  be  any deader than this season was. I think the  best  idea  is for forecasters to dump trying to forecast a season in advance. Instead, just  look at the  pattern after the start  of the season. I was wondering  back in early  june where all the hype  was  coming  from when it seemed rather  obvious the  overall pattern was NOT  going to produce a season of  note. This season was quite dead. Lets  hope  next season has a  bit  of  moisture  in the tropics. 

 

Aug  is  clearly  not  going to be sideways. CSU  should  at  least  cut their  forecast  in half. Now we wait to see when JB says he was  wrong as well.

 

 

 

This  might be the  most active the Atlantic  looks  till SEPT 15.

 

202207261410.gif

It's August?

You love  the long range 

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Could  this end  up being the deadest  of dead seasons? Another  person joins the bandwagon. Beginning  of the season now  pushed  back to sometime  in Sept. Has the  cane season began and ended  in the same  month? I  would advise CSU  to cut  numbers down to 10/3/1, but thats  only assuming the season actually  keeps  going  in OCT which seems  unlikely. Why were the  forecasters  so horribly  wrong  about this season? Please  chime  in on why they did such a horrible  job.

If this  is what we get  in a  La  Nina please for all thats  holy  give  us a super el nino next season. It  cant  possibly  be  any deader than this season was. I think the  best  idea  is for forecasters to dump trying to forecast a season in advance. Instead, just  look at the  pattern after the start  of the season. I was wondering  back in early  june where all the hype  was  coming  from when it seemed rather  obvious the  overall pattern was NOT  going to produce a season of  note. This season was quite dead. Lets  hope  next season has a  bit  of  moisture  in the tropics.

It's July

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