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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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TheSnowman

TheSnowman

Posted
Posted

Oh!  Let not forget that Southwest does Not fly at night, nor takes a chance flying into places where planes will get stuck Even if they can get in.  So even though I have $2000 with them in various points and Vouchers, I don't want to cancel Thursday events and fly all day Thursday, so I'd have to pay probably $400+ on a Redeye on Thursday night.  AND not sleep.   AND change my flights to my next stop in Alabama.  It's way Way way too much.  I was home November through January 18th.  I waited long enough.  

 

This ain't happening.  Have everyone FaceTime me.  

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

This is an Absurdly Difficult Call.  

I would be pissing off about 40 different people in about 5 different friend groups, miss a Recording, miss a $1000 private gig, basically not get money back for the early returned rental car, Miss Sledding in the Snow at Mt. Whitney up Rte. 2 in LA, and Miss about 7 flipping meetings.  

Again.  Unless I'm 90% GUARANTEED 24", I can Not do this.  

Then your best call is it not cancel and come home. You will never, ever have 90% probs of a MINIMUM of 24" even in a 12 hour window. Never.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said:

In that electric Seahawks 12th man green. I remember checking the 4 PM update for Feb 6th, 2013 as a wee weenie, and since I'd never seen a blizzard watch before, I was worried it was a flood watch and that the track had dramatically shifted west! 4th grade me was very excited for his first two foot event as a sentient being

wait, what were you before you were a sentient being?

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Then your best call is it not cancel and come home. You will never, ever have 90% probs of a MINIMUM of 24" even in a 12 hour window. Never.

I could see a 90 pct probability of 18 inches but not 24.  It's very hard to get that kind of 24 inch coverage in even the largest storms....not even Jan 1996 or Jan 2016 had that here even though we had widespread 20 inch plus in Jan 1996 and widespread 24 inch plus in Jan 2016.

 

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

Oh!  Let not forget that Southwest does Not fly at night, nor takes a chance flying into places where planes will get stuck Even if they can get in.  So even though I have $2000 with them in various points and Vouchers, I don't want to cancel Thursday events and fly all day Thursday, so I'd have to pay probably $400+ on a Redeye on Thursday night.  AND not sleep.   AND change my flights to my next stop in Alabama.  It's way Way way too much.  I was home November through January 18th.  I waited long enough.  

 

This ain't happening.  Have everyone FaceTime me.  

Dont feel bad man i missed Feb 2003 (PD2), Oct 2011, Jan 2011 and Feb 2013.

You'll get more chances for big ones in the future, doesn't sound like the risk, inconvenience, sleep deprivation, loss of money and everything else is worth it.

 

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

WOR....STOP WORRYING.

You have margin for error on that map, and keep in mind...I agree east kicks are still likely, but model QPF is NOT going to capture the full extent of that deformation, so its not far enough west to begin with. NVM that this has so much s stream origin.

This is NOT Juno....this is NOT March 2018.....this is on another level as far as regional impact, though probably similar east.

This will be the most severe regional impactor in 9 years-

Period.

yep!

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Dont feel bad man i missed Feb 2003 (PD2), Oct 2011, Jan 2011 and Feb 2013.

You'll get more chances for big ones in the future, doesn't sound like the risk, inconvenience, sleep deprivation, loss of money and everything else is worth it.

 

Regardless of how big the big ones get, there is just something emotional about the first one.

April 1982 and Feb 1983 were my first big ones, and I loved them and was very excited to experience them but I was only 8 and 9 years old and there was no internet so no tracking outside of local tv reports.  Jan 1996 was the first all snow snowstorm I avidly followed so that one will always hold a special place in my heart (also because of the 13 year HECS drought here, unimaginable today), but there was no internet for me back then so it was all tracking via local news.  Seeing 2 and 3 foot snowfall amounts predicted for the first time in my life was absolutely amazing.  I still say to this day that the snowfall amounts measured locally were lower than reality, because the 20-21 inches supposedly measured in Jan 1996 was exceeded by the 26 inches measured in PD2 and then the 31 inches measured in Jan 2016.  But the supposed 20-21 inches in Jan 1996 looked a lot higher than the 26 inches in PD2 and probably close to the level of the 31 inches measured in Jan 2016.

 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Oh!  Let not forget that Southwest does Not fly at night, nor takes a chance flying into places where planes will get stuck Even if they can get in.  So even though I have $2000 with them in various points and Vouchers, I don't want to cancel Thursday events and fly all day Thursday, so I'd have to pay probably $400+ on a Redeye on Thursday night.  AND not sleep.   AND change my flights to my next stop in Alabama.  It's way Way way too much.  I was home November through January 18th.  I waited long enough.  

 

This ain't happening.  Have everyone FaceTime me.  

I have already told you what to do...why bother to ask? :lol:

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Regardless of how big the big ones get, there is just something emotional about the first one.

April 1982 and Feb 1983 were my first big ones, and I loved them and was very excited to experience them but I was only 8 and 9 years old and there was no internet so no tracking outside of local tv reports.  Jan 1996 was the first all snow snowstorm I avidly followed so that one will always hold a special place in my heart (also because of the 13 year HECS drought here, unimaginable today), but there was no internet for me back then so it was all tracking via local news.  Seeing 2 and 3 foot snowfall amounts predicted for the first time in my life was absolutely amazing.  I still say to this day that the snowfall amounts measured locally were lower than reality, because the 20-21 inches supposedly measured in Jan 1996 was exceeded by the 26 inches measured in PD2 and then the 31 inches measured in Jan 2016.  But the supposed 20-21 inches in Jan 1996 looked a lot higher than the 26 inches in PD2 and probably close to the level of the 31 inches measured in Jan 2016.

 

I agree. Feb 5th 2001 and Mar 4-6th 2001 are still #1 and #2 for me despite having many storms that have eclipsed those in the snowfall department. Seeing CG thundersnow that strikes like 100ft from you in the middle of blinding snow when you didn't even know that was possible changes you when you're a kid.

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TheSnowman

TheSnowman

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Dont feel bad man i missed Feb 2003 (PD2), Oct 2011, Jan 2011 and Feb 2013.

You'll get more chances for big ones in the future, doesn't sound like the risk, inconvenience, sleep deprivation, loss of money and everything else is worth it.

 

I missed the Buzzsaw of 2011 (20" in 12 hours), February of 2017 (18" in 10 hours), March of 2018 (21" in 12 hours).  

 

But I FLEW HOME for March 2017 from the Netherlands, missed being on TV there,  sorrento $700, and getting a lap of Zandvoort.  Got home for 9.5" of glop.  I'm 0-3 staying and 0-1 coming home.  Not worth going through the hell.  I'll just accept going 0-4.  

 

And WHY ARE YOU GUYS UP AT 3:30am??  

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I agree. Feb 5th 2001 and Mar 4-6th 2001 are still #1 and #2 for me despite having many storms that have eclipsed those in the snowfall department. Seeing CG thundersnow that strikes like 100ft from you in the middle of blinding snow when you didn't even know that was possible changes you when you're a kid.

Thundersnow is the best and most memorable part of the big ones (especially CG....I think I've only experienced that once and that was in Feb 1994 and it was both thrilling and scary at the same time.)  The best part is when the heaviest snows occur during the day, so that's important too.  I remember when I experienced CG heavy snowfall in Feb 1994 and I still say that was some of the heaviest snowfall rates I've ever experienced....we literally went from bare ground to 8 inches in like 2 hours lol.  Best part was it happened between 10 am and noon.  I was having breakfast that morning to bare ground and had 2 foot drifts by lunch time lol....

Jan 2016 and Jan 2017 (back to back years curiously enough) were my longest periods of daytime white out (confirmed blizzard) conditions, which I also really enjoy, zero visibility with heavy snow.  I think Jan 2017 set the surge record at Boston if I'm not mistaken?  What an amazing storm that was.  All day heavy snow and zero visibility.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I missed the Buzzsaw of 2011 (20" in 12 hours), February of 2017 (18" in 10 hours), March of 2018 (21" in 12 hours).  

 

But I FLEW HOME for March 2017 from the Netherlands, missed being on TV there,  sorrento $700, and getting a lap of Zandvoort.  Got home for 9.5" of glop.  I'm 0-3 staying and 0-1 coming home.  Not worth going through the hell.  I'll just accept going 0-4.  

 

And WHY ARE YOU GUYS UP AT 3:30am??  

Strategically oriented my sleep patterns for these late night runs.  Went to sleep at 9 PM and woke up at 1 AM lol.  Will go back to sleep at 4 AM and wake back up by 9 AM....so 9 hours of sleep but in unconventional way.

 

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