Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

 

March 4-6 2003 was the best example.  I saw 32 in Methuen.  Vday 2007, 38.   We only got 24 for 1993 superstorm in Stowe.  But it came in 12 hours.  That 32 in Methuen was the most I had ever seen in a single storm until vday 2007.   But I had multiple 18-28 during the 3 years in methuen, north and weest of 495 was in the ****ing zone.  Vinateri kicking in 2001, so much snow that year,  

Methuen, MA did not get 38" on Valentine's day 2007.

That is patently false and inaccurate.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Now THERE, is the demon....lol

 

Yea. We’re fully prepared to see evil but it won’t make it any less painful. 

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Now THERE, is the demon....lol

 

wth model is that? GFS?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

what is this?

GFS NARCAN......that seems a bit much, though.

Sometimes that algorithm goes haywire.....I would cut that in half.

[wxsniss]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Comforting thing for me is even the UK would get deformation here, but is probably wrong IMO.

Maybe the other comfort: compared to western SNE or NNE, you're not on the edge in any of the different scenarios currently depicted.

Let's get a good Euro run here...

[dmcginvt]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

March 4-6 2001*

 

2001 makes more sense!!  Hahah, I remember people further south being pissed

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Maybe the other comfort: compared to western SNE or NNE, you're not on the edge in any of the different scenarios currently depicted.

Let's get a good Euro run here...

Yea, probably not jackpot, but I have a safe floor.

[dmcginvt]

Just now, dmcginvt said:

2001 makes more sense!!  Hahah, I remember people further south being pissed

But I remember the afd from Walt drag too,  I think he mentioned at one point that places more to the south might turn to rain

[dmcginvt]

Just now, dmcginvt said:

But I remember the afd from Walt drag too,  I think he mentioned at one point that places more to the south might turn to rain

I remember what I want to remember, and I miss Walt afd's

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

I remember what I want to remember, and I miss Walt afd's

Look in here for your pics from Don. What was your name on NE.WEATHER.  I was GinxSRIWX

 

http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoindex.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

One thing I have in the back of my mind ....I have seen others mention this, is that these models are NOT going to launch these deformation zones far enough west. I remember vividly...in the lead up to March 14, 2018....model QPF was killing PYM, and I was near the edge of the good stuff. Then, in the wee hours of the morning.....it began as rain where I was in Wilmington, and I swear, I was out in my driveway at 3am looking for a football to spike bc I knew that meant.

31" later.....

[dmcginvt]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Methuen, MA did not get 38" on Valentine's day 2007.

That is patently false and inaccurate.

Sorry that wasnt clear,  i was talking about the biggest storms I've personally seen, Methuen was 32 inches March 4-6 2001, Vday was Stowe vt 38 inches (Not the mountain).,  

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dmcginvt said:

Sorry that wasnt clear,  i was talking about the biggest storms I've personally seen, Methuen was 32 inches March 4-6 2001, Vday was Stowe vt 38 inches (Not the mountain).,  

Found these 2 right away from Methuen 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dmcginvt said:

Sorry that wasnt clear,  i was talking about the biggest storms I've personally seen, Methuen was 32 inches March 4-6 2001, Vday was Stowe vt 38 inches (Not the mountain).,  

OOOOOHHH.....haha That makes perfect sense.

Gotcha.

Yea, I know this is a decent spot, I just moved here for a bad stretch.

Hopefully that ends in about 72 hours-

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

I remember what I want to remember, and I miss Walt afd's

u can read all the AFDs u want from the past 30 years here:

IEM :: NWS Text Product by Issuing Center by Date (iastate.edu)

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

u can read all the AFDs u want from the past 30 years here:

IEM :: NWS Text Product by Issuing Center by Date (iastate.edu)

I go there and rub off to 2015 

[40/70 Benchmark]

That 32" for Methuen in 3/5/01 sounds about right...just north of there in se NH had JP at 36-40".

I had about 22" in Wilmington.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I go there and rub off to 2015 

do u like to hurt me

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I go there and rub off to 2015 

My favorited AFD ever was the one from @wdrag on Sunday evening, March 4, 2001. Never forget reading that after I got home from my part time shift at MB

[weathafella]

Comparing UKMET to euro at 54 hours euro has a higher amplitude ridge higher out west.    I believe that should make a good sized difference 

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My favorited AFD ever was the one from DRAG on Sunday evening, March 4, 2001. Never forget reading that after i got home from my part time shift at MB

Off topic: did they have dine-in stuff at MB back then? One of the best parts of moving to the suburbs is realizing the sheer epicosity of grocery store dine-in. Made by real chefs cheap, delicious, and quick. I get a slice of cheese, which is a quarter of a pie, for $2.38. And its delicious

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

Off topic: did they have dine-in stuff at MB back then? One of the best parts of moving to the suburbs is realizing the sheer epicosity of grocery store dine-in. Made by real chefs cheap, delicious, and quick. I get a slice of cheese, which is a quarter of a pie, for $2.38. And its delicious

No, just the DELI back then.....they started to ramp up with that stuff like 2004ish....selling pizza and such.

[dmcginvt]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look in here for your pics from Don. What was your name on NE.WEATHER.  I was GinxSRIWX

 

http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoindex.html

Thanks, my photos were the bottom 2 here http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photomarch2001.html and I know I had many more also Im dave mcguriman mentioned on that page.  man, my name on ne.weather was probably my name there also there was no security care then, although I know I started as [email protected] in like 95.  Silly aol!  I used to enjoy tq's forecasting snowfall contests.  I remember some kid from albany who had a magical local knowledge of snowfall who's every word i followed back then, and he turned out to be powderfreak and still gives the best local forecast of anyone I know.  

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro will probably be east. Let’s see if it isn’t too far..

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dmcginvt said:

Thanks, my photos were the bottom 2 here http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photomarch2001.html and I know I had many more also Im dave mcguriman mentioned on that page.  man, my name on ne.weather was probably my name there also there was no security care then, although I know I started as [email protected] in like 95.  Silly aol!  I used to enjoy tq's forecasting snowfall contests.  I remember some kid from albany who had a magical local knowledge of snowfall who's every word i followed back then, and he turned out to be powderfreak and still gives the best local forecast of anyone I know.  

 

I won TQs contest on a couple of storms. Don S was the best

[wxsniss]

Holding back southern energy a bit more over New Mexico vs. 12z... we'll see how that translates considering that 12z captured the low early and relatively southwest

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Holding back southern energy a bit more over New Mexico vs. 12z... we'll see how that translates considering that 12z captured the low early and relatively southwest

Good. F&*k Boxing Day......00Z CMC fine by me.

[TheSnowman]

OK, guys, I'm in LA right now with gigs tomorrow tomorrow night and a private one on Saturday, so I need to start thinking.....

THE GRAND QUESTION......  

Do I Change My Trip and Come Home??  I just heard about this storm hours ago...  If I'm likely to get 18"+ I'll do it.  Less than 18 I'll have to miss it.   

 

I can probably just book a flight Friday night on SW now and cancel late since I don't lose the money.   BUT is getting in mid-day Friday too late?  

[brooklynwx99]

the ECMWF has a more favorably oriented NS vort that’s more meridional than 18z with a negligible change with regards to the southern wave

this should phase more efficiently than 18z

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

OK, guys, I'm in LA right now with gigs tomorrow tomorrow night and a private one on Saturday, so I need to start thinking.....

THE GRAND QUESTION......  

Do I Change My Trip and Come Home??  I just heard about this storm hours ago...  If I'm likely to get 18"+ I'll do it.  Less than 18 I'll have to miss it.   

 

I can probably just book a flight Friday night on SW now and cancel late since I don't lose the money.   BUT is getting in mid-day Friday too late?  

NO. Get home