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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I do feel the same way, but I don’t completely discount the NAM’s robust warming higher up near  the 850mb level either. But same stuff as 12z. The money 3hr frames for ZR are 60 and 63. Using my nearest station at KAOO as an example since I’m in the thick of the heavy ZR over here.

HR 60: Surface -6ºC, 925mb (~3k ft) -6ºC, 850mb +2ºC

HR 63: Surface -2ºC, 925mb -3ºC. 850mb back to 0ºC

Even with that basic breakdown at the major layers I look at that and ask what part of that suggests that particular station sees 0.78” as freezing rain? I think something toward a NAM scenario might get a few hours of sleet into the central and *maybe* western counties. But Pitt’s advantage is the 850 low tracks favorably on the NAM for western (and serviceable to central counties) plus overall flow is on the cold conveyor belt side of the low. We don’t have an Ohio Valley low with SW flow intruding in this situation and trying to overcome that with a secondary to the coast. The warm advection comes from the tremendous easterly flow aloft with the coastal low. I can’t really think of a situation in the past that has presented the NAM type scenario of that much mix/ZR into western PA so that would be a new one to me if it happened. 

 

Thanks for your thoughts. He was weenying out a bit 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

The pivotal maps shows you getting less than 1".  Several runs now where I question it what is going on with pivotal figures in close situations. 

I mean...it's possible, especially if the WAA is weak sauce. If snow is going to confined to merely a couple/few hours before it flips, it better rip or it will end as much adieu about nothing.

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I mean...it's possible, especially if the WAA is weak sauce. If snow is going to confined to merely a couple/few hours before it flips, it better rip or it will end as much adieu about nothing.

Well that is what happens, quick flip,  but it was snowing quite hard over you for that one panel.   I think some of the more smoothed over snow maps are a bit better than pivotal right now. 

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4 minutes ago, anotherman said:


Yeah, I’m the same way. Hard to believe this went from a storm giving South Carolina major snow and then out to sea to what it is now.

Yep, humbling for forecasting.  I kept it to myself for the most part so no 'Where is my one foot of snow" from friends (Sort of similar to Trainings story) but still very disappointing at this point.  I feel for the most part we did a good job in tracking so far.   Surprised more NWS and paid mets did not catch on to the 850 low/surface wave that hangs on west of the apps. 

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