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MLK Storm - something for everyone


ChescoWx
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I guess it's going to be quiet around here except for the upper LV folks. I don't really see this trending anywhere, the dynamics aren't set up to make this an event for PHL/DE/NJ. A little shift could get some folks a little something interesting to pay attention to though. Stay safe friends. Good luck Ralph.

-RSC

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9 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

I guess it's going to be quiet around here except for the upper LV folks. I don't really see this trending anywhere, the dynamics aren't set up to make this an event for PHL/DE/NJ. A little shift could get some folks a little something interesting to pay attention to though. Stay safe friends. Good luck Ralph.

-RSC

image.png.889c703fec75b3c7259444ccb82543b1.png

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Improvements on the ICON track fwiw. GEFS look amazing....textbook. Lost all the western members. BIG changes coming with today's runs. Buckle up:

 

1642074014517_18946979298394.gif

I dont know, this feels like the upgraded OP handling things well and lower resolution GEFS struggling like old times. Anyone remember the GEFS and Dec 16/17 last year? Pepperidge farms remembers...I'm always wrong though. I'm just hoping theres someone who gets 2 feet on the models as we get closer because I plan to chase

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Massive difference's between the 12z NAM @ 84 hours and the 06z GFS @ 90 hours. NAM is about 7 MB weaker and 200 miles further south. 06z GFS jumped about 50 miles east as well from 00z. Start of a trend towards the east like the ensembles? Still a lot of time for big changes. There's no way 95 stays snow the whole storm but if it trends to a track like the ensembles, it should be mostly frozen. Would be a ton of sleet I think.

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Changes at the surface as the tick S and E is on. The low wants to be East as you can see in the bagginess. GFS did this yesterday and keeps adjusting that zone East. Track went from Greenville to Philly when the op was showing it going Greenville to Harrisburg. Then it made an adjustment. 

GFS 12Z looks like it wants to do this again today with notable weakness East of Henlopen. You can even see a closed surface circulation here from 12z:

20220113_113635.thumb.jpg.075c401ef25293c2132a405754fdd5a8.jpg

 

At 6z this weakness was carving a route thru New Castle:

20220113_114102.thumb.jpg.e15333a2dd6e841b4b278750ea333389.jpg

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2 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

More than 72 hours to go...just a few more ticks east, please. We'll still taint, just hoping to maximize frozen.

Funny because speaking with someone earlier, they were "impressed that the weather people nailed this 5 days out". Mind you, this is someone who only watches the news. Well, they do say the big ones are sniffed out early, so there's that.

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

The tracking has been a tedious affair with this one. We don't get many of these inland huggers the last twenty years. 

 

 

I despise these storms. 

I'll probably be somewhere between Pitt and buffalo, could change of course, hoping it's more of a BGM chase

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As a note about this storm regardless of p-type, the full moon is Monday so the tides will be running high and any winds that mixed down can exacerbate flooding along the coast and other waterways.  Could be a LV "drought buster" ;):lol: (although it looks like it is a fast mover).

Here was Mt. Holly's take last evening -

 

WPC yesterday -

 

 

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NWS forecast for a chance of snow after 1pm Sunday is giving a clue. These often start faster than projected and with less virga, we may get snow in here before dark Sunday. 

Thinking snow on Sunday from 3pm-9pm with obviously earlier changeover the further SE you go. 

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

NWS forecast for a chance of snow after 1pm Sunday is giving a clue. These often start faster than projected and with less virga, we may get snow in here before dark Sunday. 

Thinking snow on Sunday from 3pm-9pm with obviously earlier changeover the further SE you go. 

 

This thing must be truckin. Last I heard (yesterday?) start time was mid evening or so...

Balmy 47F

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3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

0z Euro seems to have gone way west (the 6z not in range from how they do their runs).

floop-ecmwf_full-2022011300.sfcwind_mslp.conus-0z-01132022.gif

lol look at that thing just meandering around, reminds me of the path i'd take trying to walk home in college after a night at the balloon

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