Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

[wolfie09]

Euro still with the farther north primary.. Solid front end thump though..

[BGM Blizzard]

0z ensemble members

Eps

Gefs

Geps

[BGM Blizzard]

0z ensemble 10:1 mean from mid week to 18z Saturday 2/26. That's a pretty strong signal for a widespread heavy snowfall event at this range.

Just need the Euro/Eps to spread the love.

[lakeeffectkid383]

I hope SouthBuffaloSteve is in his spot at the waterfront already. This “pre” front lake effect/enhanced snow right now with these wind gust is insane. I bet right at the waterfront has to be absolutely nuts right now and this isn’t even the front ! 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

41 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

I hope SouthBuffaloSteve is in his spot at the waterfront already. This “pre” front lake effect/enhanced snow right now with these wind gust is insane. I bet right at the waterfront has to be absolutely nuts right now and this isn’t even the front ! 

Was a little late getting out.  Made for a very fun drive downtown this morning.  Winds are really whipping the snow around… Hunkering down at the Erie Basin Marina for the front passage.

 

[TugHillMatt]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Let us have this one near the coast 

Nope. Long Island and most of coastal New England are above average for the season.

6 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Yowzer. Lol

The Canadian has jackpotted Onondaga county a couple times this season. I obviously would love to see this lock in and actually happen.

[TugHillMatt]

Winter Weather Advisory for Syracuse area for 3 to 6 inches of lake effect snow. It starts at 4 this afternoon after whatever fun we will already have with the front. I'll take it.

[TugHillMatt]

Got down to the lower teens here last night and then the Chinook winds of the South kicked in and popped it up to the Upper 20s overnight. Oh, to be at the mercy of those south winds.

[rochesterdave]

Here it comes. Don’t blink

[rochesterdave]

And Tim, not even a flurry in Roc yet….

[tim123]

Where you up looking. Good grief.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Insanity down here!  

 

[tim123]

Gfs is active.

[Thinksnow18]

True whiteout with the frontal passage. Can’t see across street. Insane.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

True whiteout with the frontal passage. Can’t see across street. Insane.

It just hit so fast.  Barely made it back into the car just saw a wall of white racing towards shore and bam went from clear to whiteout in 10 seconds.   Snagged 2 super bright thundersnow flashes in the whiteout.

[WaistDeepSnow]

Had thundersnow here in western Amherst.  

[TugHillMatt]

Nice, Buffalo guys! Looks like HEAVY snow over North Buffalo.

[TugHillMatt]

15 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Insanity down here!  

 

Are you going to do a "Jim Cantore" and dramatically walk as if it will blow you away?

[BuffaloWeather]

Power is out here, that was crazy 

[tim123]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Power is out here, that was crazy 

How high did winds get?

[DeltaT13]

Still popping some lightning. 

[tim123]

Looks like most intense part of bad headed for roc

[wolfie09]

[tim123]

Huge spin in clouds over Huron headed se. Should be fun to was how this all plays out today.

[wolfie09]

Expect a burst of lake enhanced snow with the clipper cold front
early to mid morning. A band of heavy lake effect snow will then
develop by late morning across the Tug Hill Plateau. This band of
snow will drift slowly south across the Tug from late morning
through mid afternoon, becoming quite heavy with 2-3"/hr snow fall
rates likely. Late this afternoon the band will move south across
Oswego County and weaken as boundary layer flow veers more
northwesterly. Total accumulations will likely reach 8-12" across
the Tug Hill Plateau, with 3-6" for some of the surrounding lower
elevations.

Some lake effect snow will persist tonight southeast of Lake
Ontario, but in a weaker state as inversion heights fall and
moisture decreases. Expect 2-3" across portions of Wayne and
northern Cayuga counties, and 1-2 inches near the lakeshore in
Monroe County. What remains of the lake effect will drift back over
the lake and end by Sunday morning.

[tombo82685]

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Does that site not show them all? Because there are more members now than 20. They have 30

[wolfie09]

Colder air settles into the area for a couple days until the next
system with decent timing unison in model guidance approaches for
Thursday night and Friday. The ECMWF is notably warmer than other
global model solutions, and it is really the only solution that
brings up enough warm air to have a changeover to rain, however it`s
rarely a good idea to fully discount the ECMWF in the extended.
Thus, while the forecast favors colder solutions for the moment, the
numbers were tempered a bit to account for the warmer ECMWF.

[tim123]

This there is more energy coming in this afternoon with more squalls

[wolfie09]

2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Does that site not show them all? Because there are more members now than 20. They have 30

That's all COD provides..Not sure of any other free sites with GEFS snowfall..

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

35 minutes ago, tim123 said:

How high did winds get?

Winds were strong pre front 40-45 but really ramped up inside the squall line.  Car was violently shaking for a few minutes had to be 55-60 gusts. Crazy how fast the winds subsided to just a breeze on the backside of the front.  Got at least 4 thundersnow strikes.