Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Silas Lang]

Nice GFS run. Hopefully the other models pick up on the weekend storm as well. Even have a little breathing room for a NW trend, which is nice. 

For the borderline Tuesday storm, what's up with the ptypes? Shows mostly rain, but looking at the upper air maps doesn't look like rain? Warm layer somewhere between? 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Nice GFS run. Hopefully the other models pick up on the weekend storm as well. Even have a little breathing room for a NW trend, which is nice. 

For the borderline Tuesday storm, what's up with the ptypes? Shows mostly rain, but looking at the upper air maps doesn't look like rain? Warm layer somewhere between? 

The 12z CMC also has a big storm.  Just toggle over to precip instead of precip type on TT, and you can see it.  It is a slightly different evolution of the storm as it hits on the energy next in line after the GFS storm.

I think time of day, latitude, and elevation are going to be a important for the borderline storm on Tuesday....Guessing a slopfest IMBY or just cold rain.  

[Carvers Gap]

Both the 12z GFS and 12z CMC phased systems within about 24 hours of each other.  Models might be(and might not be) honing in on a threat during that time frame.  If the GFS hadn't stalled that first system, there might have been a second right behind it.  

[Carvers Gap]

That is the second big run of the GFS within this time frame.  It had it yesterday at 12z as well.  

[Carvers Gap]

Back to reality after two wild model runs....TRI for the month of January so far.  Impressive to see the positive departures of the first two days, and now the month is BN in terms of temps and AN for snowfall(those snowfall averages are woefully underdone IMHO BTW).  The next week should place temps firmly BN for the month of January.  For comparison, here are December and January wx data spreadsheets from TRI.  

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro about to give it a run as well?

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro has formed a compact slp along the GC.  Not sure it has a way to gain latitude.  But all three models now have a potent system during the same time frame.  

[Carvers Gap]

That is 3/3 with all global ensembles checking-in with a powerful winter storm next weekend.  We will see if that look holds.  We all know the drill.  

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro has less precip in the NW quadrant, but we take that track at this range 10/10 times.  

[Carvers Gap]

Euro manages to get a 987 slp inside Hatteras and deepens it to 982 over Delmarva.  Gets just north of NYC and goes to 978, and 975 just past that.  NO IDEA IF THIS HOLDS, but nice to see all global ensembles pick this up.  It is about 7 days out there, so plenty can change.  If we are talking about this Sunday afternoon still, that is a good sign.

[Carvers Gap]

Both the Euro and GFS at 12z keyed on the same piece of energy.  CMC keyed on the piece that was just after that.  The thing is, this is the timeframe where the pattern retrogrades.  All of these storms which have been recurving as they go OTS...that track is going to be right along the EC for about 3-4 days.  If some energy manages to get into that window, it could potentially form a Nor'Easter.  Nice suite. 

edit:  I should add, this is also right as the pattern shakes up.  I believe there may also be a sharp drop in the AO coming up as well according to JB.  Also, looks like the SOI had a couple of sudden drops just a few days ago.  That drop/rebound...seems like that preceded our recent stormy episode. 

Over and out for me this afternoon.  Have a good weekend, everyone!

[Silas Lang]

Appreciate the play by play, Carver! 

Glad to see a storm on all 3 models. Though, is it weird that I have more confidence in the GFS now? Seems to be better than the Euro these days. 

Anyway, do you have good odds of getting this one a little more NW to get more peeps in play? Kept hoping for that trend with the this past one but nada. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Silas Lang said:

Appreciate the play by play, Carver! 

Glad to see a storm on all 3 models. Though, is it weird that I have more confidence in the GFS now? Seems to be better than the Euro these days. 

Anyway, do you have good odds of getting this one a little more NW to get more peeps in play? Kept hoping for that trend with the this past one but nada. 

With a storm deepening to those levels, I would think that it would very likely trend NW of whatever cone/track models eventually settle upon IF the storm is indeed real.   Lots of hypotheticals in that last answer.  Also, the NW quadrant would very likely have incredible wind and precip totals.  Honestly, those are anomalous solutions compared to what we normally see during winter wx modeling.  Extremes rarely last on wx models at this range, but sometimes models do pick-up strong storms at range.   Odd to see all three models pick it up at 12z. To be fair, the GFS had this solutions yesterday at 12z.  So, might be something is in the kitchen cooking.  

I went over and read the MA comments after the GFS ran...as the energy began to phase in the Plains, Stormtracker(paraphrased) said, "Somebody fire-up the Jaws theme."  LOL.  Fun run on a cold and cloudy day.  I would think this will certainly change some with each run, ranging from nothing to varying tracks.  Doubt we see a 966 parked along the Carolina coast during future runs.  That said, all three ensembles had powerful systems.  The Christmas storm last year was picked up maybe at ten days?  Anyway, time will tell.  

Huge grains of salt at this range.  Just speculating at this point for sure....

[jaxjagman]

Yeah i agree with Carver.Plus you got a +NAO.But man looks like we have a nice AO upcoming,just need the PNA to work with it,if it does we could possibly get pipe busting cold into wk2 of FEB

[nrgjeff]

Tuesday continues to be a boundary layer question south of I-40. Rain Chatty. Next Friday is...

I'll continue to bad mouth the pattern (contrarian play) and jawbone in the severe thread. 

[John1122]

The similarities to 1984-85 continue. The extremes aren't here but snow fall dates, cold shots etc continue to line up. These last two days are liable to be the coldest of winter, just like 84-85. 84-85 featured a late January storm, then a big February storm and then it went warm. Looks like it may possibly roll out that way again this year. 

[PowellVolz]

The similarities to 1984-85 continue. The extremes aren't here but snow fall dates, cold shots etc continue to line up. These last two days are liable to be the coldest of winter, just like 84-85. 84-85 featured a late January storm, then a big February storm and then it went warm. Looks like it may possibly roll out that way again this year. 

I’m all about having a big winter but come March I’m ready for spring.


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[John1122]

GFS was more suppressed with the first two events. The deep low wasn't as strong and missed really wide. A massive event coming in for Feb 1st but 10+ days away. We know song will change a lot. 

[John1122]

This should be a massive winter storm but it looks like the GFS is going to turn it into a rainer over Tennessee. 

[PowellVolz]

Some precipitation trying to slide of the eastern valley




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[PowellVolz]

This should be a massive winter storm but it looks like the GFS is going to turn it into a rainer over Tennessee. 

Interesting…. Does the high pressure stay in a good spot? I
Like where that is here.


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[jaxjagman]

Dunno,it dont work out  all the time but i thought we'd see more ridging than cold.Heights rising in East Asia,+NAO/-pna although they arent really tightly clustered tho,crud EPO equals warm  not cold,this would be towards the end of the month

[John1122]

GFS has now lost the midweek system to the south. The one time all season it's folding towards the Euro. Looks like it would be a storm that would send moisture here but it just doesn't. 

[John1122]

The next weekend system is even more suppressed and looks more like a Miller B/transfer. A clipper dies out near here  and a low pops over Jacksonville. Earlier the clipper was okay for a lot of us. Not it's just dry and barely spits out anything. A long way to go still but a Jacksonville to Bermuda track used to be what you want to see, not so much this year. Wild times that the NAO is + and storms are more suppressed in the East than they would be if it were negative. 

[John1122]

Back to the very ugly look. Precip does everything it can do dodge most of the valley. 

[EastTNWeatherAdmirer]

I have a question…perhaps some of you smart weather needs and geeks on here could provide some insight. During the winter, are there any key atmospheric features(things like teleconnections, MJO, storm timing, ULL’s, SLL’s, trough tilt) that have a strong effect and influence on whether southern stream storm systems “phase” with the northern cold upper jet to create significant snow storms? In other words, are there any deeper answers to why the pattern doesn’t work out for some(even those in the south) because of suppression other than blaming a “strong -AO”?

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said:

I have a question…perhaps some of you smart weather needs and geeks on here could provide some insight. During the winter, are there any key atmospheric features(things like teleconnections, MJO, storm timing, ULL’s, SLL’s, trough tilt) that have a strong effect and influence on whether southern stream storm systems “phase” with the northern cold upper jet to create significant snow storms? In other words, are there any deeper answers to why the pattern doesn’t work out for some(even those in the south) because of suppression other than blaming a “strong -AO”?

Winter time you guys in the East want a -NAO,this helps keep the  LP suppressed,we want cutters cutting  through Birmingham to Montgomery.We dont get snow from LP towards the gulf coast  but Southern Md Tn into East Tn can,its very rare when you see this around Nashville  getting anything with a storm suppressed all the way to the gulf states..jmo

[Weathertree2]

Looks like a great run by 6z GFS for west/middle areas of forum 

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z GFS returns to a look that is pretty good.  More of a northern stream influence that pushes over the Apps and phases with a SLP along the coast.  With six days to go, going to see a lot of looks.  During the past 7 runs, the GFS has had the storm on four.  The 0z run was less optimal since it developed offshore.  TRI has scored multiple times with the 6z GFS look.  A Miller B which originates in the northern stream is a look that TRI can score with.  The Miller Bs which originate in the STJ are no bueno here.  

As for the M-T system....Unfortunately, the low in the northern stream on Tuesday is out of sync and/or latitude.  We need that system to interact with the STJ.

[Carvers Gap]

37 minutes ago, Weathertree2 said:

Looks like a great run by 6z GFS for west/middle areas of forum 

Actually, ran a good chunk of I-40 across the entire forum area.  It is going to change with each run for a while, but we are still talking about the storm today, so that is a plus.