Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like it will still be too late for our area, aside from whatever one s/w alone can produce. But it is pretty darn amazing that there could be such differences at H5 out west, but still produce a similar solution. Timing differences aside, the s/w being that far west early on, this run still produces a similar outcome to 6z wrt surface weather along the east coast:

 

 

It's almost like this sort of a phased storm, whether it is out to sea, or more inland, is something the pattern just wants to produce now. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

We need the low to start popping in the gulf to get decent snow, right? As I understood it, we didn't really get a whole lot off the huge coastal. Our potential snow comes from more of the lead up. 

Yeah, we need this look:

shifted west, so that the trough axis is over Alabama. 

Here is the ideal vort map evolution for east TN, IMO:

 

 

There have been some runs that looked close to that, but too far east, for the most part. But they were in that territory with 960 lows off of Hatteras. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I don't know what the surface will look like, but the shortwaves look better on the CMC:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Man, if you just shifted the CMC's evolution by a couple hundred miles southwest....

as much as these runs have been jumping around, it isn't out of the question, IMO. even as it stands it would be a nice small event for eastern TN. 

 

[Silas Lang]

28 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah, we need this look:

shifted west, so that the trough axis is over Alabama. 

Here is the ideal vort map evolution for east TN, IMO:

 

 

There have been some runs that looked close to that, but too far east, for the most part. But they were in that territory with 960 lows off of Hatteras. 

*Looks at date* 

Ha, well hopefully it does not need to be 93 perfect to get snow, but yeah I see what to look for better now, thanks! 

The Canadian almost has that general look. Really looks like East TN is in a good spot regardless of outcome for Friday to Saturday. We at least have decent odds of seeing some light snow.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Ha, well hopefully it does not need to be 93 perfect to get snow, but yeah I see what to look for better now, thanks!

I do want to add that there are other good H5 looks for us (bowling ball upper lows, overrunning, clippers), but that 93 gif is top tier for this kind of a phased bomb storm that the models keep trying to pop somewhere along the coast. 

[Carvers Gap]

So the 12z CMC has it this go around.  

[nrgjeff]

Clock runs out January 31. Medium range all points to warmer definitely by the 2nd week of Feb. Probably warms up the first week of Feb. MJO is blowing up in the eastern Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent bound. La Nina SER will go!

Yeah blocking lasts longer than progged. But it manifests in -PNA will keep the Rockies cold and snowy - good skiing. I am not just being cynical. Winter clock runs out January 31.

Next This week appears the storm track is to our south. Strong cold pattern at winter's climo peak is usually more a Deep South signal than our signal. We'd need to get something while the pattern is in transition. We all know how that'll go. It'll cut up the Apps and blank the Valley.

See y'all in the severe weather thread. I'm throwing in the towel.

[Icy Hot]

Ye forget the epic shows we've had in Feb and March in years yonder past.

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Clock runs out January 31. Medium range all points to warmer definitely by the 2nd week of Feb. Probably warms up the first week of Feb. MJO is blowing up in the eastern Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent bound. La Nina SER will go!

Yeah blocking lasts longer than progged. But it manifests in -PNA will keep the Rockies cold and snowy - good skiing. I am not just being cynical. Winter clock runs out January 31.

Next This week appears the storm track is to our south. Strong cold pattern at winter's climo peak is usually more a Deep South signal than our signal. We'd need to get something while the pattern is in transition. We all know how that'll go. It'll cut up the Apps and blank the Valley.

See y'all in the severe weather thread. I'm throwing in the towel.

Euro has a GREAT AO look but the PNA blows

[jaxjagman]

Got no complaints still about this winter,we can do good in Mid Tn during a moderate Nina or it can suck.This year was good,i know Nashville says they got just under 10",we are still around a foot and a half here plus some nicks and dimes.Definite the best snow we have gotten here since the snow dome effect came in place

[PowellVolz]

Tennessee valley for ya. Even in a great 500mb pattern nothing is guaranteed. Maybe we can hit on a ULL before climo takes over.


.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Clock runs out January 31. Medium range all points to warmer definitely by the 2nd week of Feb. Probably warms up the first week of Feb. MJO is blowing up in the eastern Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent bound. La Nina SER will go!

Yeah blocking lasts longer than progged. But it manifests in -PNA will keep the Rockies cold and snowy - good skiing. I am not just being cynical. Winter clock runs out January 31.

Next This week appears the storm track is to our south. Strong cold pattern at winter's climo peak is usually more a Deep South signal than our signal. We'd need to get something while the pattern is in transition. We all know how that'll go. It'll cut up the Apps and blank the Valley.

See y'all in the severe weather thread. I'm throwing in the towel.

I'm inclined to agree. May luck out if blocking behaves right and doesn't go screwy and lock cold west . 

       Blocking is what we needed with current pattern, imo, as would allow Clippers to track south and we'd do decent with those. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

csnavywx had a good post in the MA forum about the weekend storm, mentioning that he thought that the systems ability to dig and amp was dependent on the breakdown of the ridge off of the west coast. The slower that was to break down, the better chance our storm had. So far the ridge is looking better on the 18z run. 

[John1122]

The pattern is already changed/changing dramatically if modeling is accurate. We are shifting from well AN precip the first half of January to near drought conditions the second half. Moisture hasn't been an issue imby in several years now but apparently it will be the next 10-12 days. 

Counting the last several days of dry cold, the last few runs of the GFS/Euro/GEM would be the driest 15-17 day period I've experienced since the September into October flash drought several years ago. The GFS finally brings precip back around D13, but shows me at 17 days with around .10 qpf falling. 

The odd thing is, 24 hours ago the EURO had a sold inch of QPF falling over the next week or so, now it has .01 or so over the next 10 days. 

Gonna have to see it to believe it on the sudden drying up to that extent. 

On a minor positive note, the GEM and ICON aren't awful for the next Friday  system. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Since 0z today on the GFS the initial vort for the weekend system has shifted from Nebraska to Lake Powell at hr 99

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS is rolling.

[Carvers Gap]

At 96, this is not a weak vortex over Utah.  This is different than the last two runs.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Bob Chill mentioned in the MA forum that it might get cut off, and as deep as it is digging here at 18z, I could see that. 

 

Sorry I should have added that the above is the trend over the past 4 runs. 

[Carvers Gap]

I wonder if the eventual solution is the low gets cut off in the Southwest and then meanders through the SE.  

Ninja to Holston.  FTR, I had not read Chill's comments.  But if that is the eventual solution, ALL BETS are off down stream.  At that point, it becomes a bowling ball.

[Carvers Gap]

With that digging like that, I don't think modeling has this nailed down.  JB used to call that area money in the bank, i.e. at some point it is coming out and forming a storm.

[Carvers Gap]

At 114, this looks a lot like 18z yesterday.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think this run is just going to stretch out the first vort too much. 

[Carvers Gap]

And from there, I highly doubt we see that setup verify.  That is a really weird evolution.  LOL. Can't even begin to describe it.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The ridge just squishes it. But if csnavywx was right, and models are breaking down the ridge too quickly, that would allow the northern stream to line up more with the southern vort like on the 12z CMC. If that ridge holds up just a little longer, there is more amp opportunity with that healthy vort as it ejects. 

[John1122]

It's odd, no matter how the GFS starts handling the energy, the result is always the same. Super suppressed/OTS. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The ridge just squishes it. But if csnavywx was right, and models are breaking down the ridge too quickly, that would allow the northern stream to line up more with the southern vort like on the 12z CMC. If that ridge holds up just a little longer, there is more amp opportunity with that healthy vort as it ejects. 

Here's the post I'm referring to:

 

[Carvers Gap]

I think we see one of three things occurring in no particular order:

1.  Modeling is in error in dragging its heals in the southwest.

2.  That low is going to cut-off in the southwest.  Seems like modeling is caught between solutions one and two.  Either solution would like produce a big storm.  Obviously, timing would change if the the low cuts-off.  

3.  May just get strung out.  With that trough swinging through at 500, have to think something pops.  May just be too many pieces for modeling to juggle.  But still, a strung out solution has happened many, many times in the past.  

Interestingly, my yard is not dry at this point.  Fall was just rough here in terms of drought.  Off the top of my head, IMBY we went 2-3 weeks without precip, maybe on more than one occasion.  I rarely just let my garden go during the fall, but we did this year.  Didn't even plant any fall crops due to the warm temps and dry soil...and also being busy.  I need to get in my garden and work, but it is too muddy.  Our rivers and creeks are finally at normal levels again.  There is snow still on shady banks in Colonial Heights.  Saw some this AM.  We ar going to put in a couple of cold frames this spring(built but on in the garden yet).  I hope to get my low tunnel up this week.   Let's hope La Nina fades quickly.  I don't want to be in a rainfall deficit early in the growing season.  

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here's the post I'm referring to:

 

Good find.  

With roughly 1/3 to 1/2 of recent operational GFS solutions having a slp(ensuing precip shield as well) climb the length the eastern seaboard(almost right along the coast), this will be interesting to see which camp of solutions wins.  For now, the OTS option looks slightly more likely, but who knows in light of that discussion.  That is a very strong vortex coming through next weekend.  The CMC does demonstrate the camp of solutions which manage to gain latitude.  If models are breaking down blocking too quickly, that would almost certainly change the location of the potential storm.  

[jaxjagman]

19 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think this run is just going to stretch out the first vort too much. 

That looks like a long wave trough and a clipper on the back side