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Winter 2021/2022 January Thread


AMZ8990
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UK and ECMWF join the chorus for I-40 and I-81 north on Thursday. Looks like all good straight east of Knoxville too. GFS has an odd southern solution; so yes, I'd go with the GEFS. OK in Chatty we are praying for the GFS Op.

Cold air will be in place. Might not start below freezing, but it's not starting at 70. Starting around 40 is doable with an east wind, except for... you know.

ECMWF weeklies in cold for three weeks. Could be a fun January. It has MJO support attm. AN rain Deep South and BN precip here is a good look. Snow holds less moisture. 

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Just looking at the Euro Weeklies and the 12z EPS(which has a very short warm-up after Jan 10...not even sure one would call that a legit warm-up), this current pattern(and this is a new pattern I think) will be potentially be sustained maybe through the end of January.  The next 30 days feature below normal(temps) for the entire forum area according to the Euro Weeklies, roughly 1-3 degrees below normal. Mean ridge in the Southwest.  PNA ridge first couple of weeks will retrograde into an EPO ridge through approximately the end of January.  LR posts by me will be fewer in the coming days as we now have a cold pattern.  Hopefully, we actually have short range stuff to discuss and track.  Only fly in the ointment is a BN precip pattern over western forum areas.  E TN is seasonal in terms of precip.  It is by no means a perfect pattern.  I would not be shocked by a severe Arctice outbreak should one of the systems really deepen.

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