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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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9 minutes ago, donyewest said:

Holy cow, the operational GFS (blue line) is a huge outlier from the other GEFS ensemble members.  Operational Euro and ensemble also places the low further east at hour 144.

KPIT_2022011112.png

Great chart. Shows how much we do not know. All I know is we need an earlier phase and closed off low. There could be wild swings depending on the speed of the vorts, the high, and how close they are to one another.

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2 hours ago, jwilson said:

It's a very unusual looking evolution.  Pure northern stream that digs down and tries to imitate a Miller A.  This is basically an Alberta clipper that is going as March of '93 for Halloween.

The timing looks better than it did on previous runs, but this is a window I've been looking at for a while now.

 

You can see here the -NAO starting to really pump above Greenland and the 50/50 off Newfoundland.  Ridge out west.  Closed off low near the benchmark.  This is about as classic of an East Coast snowstorm look as you can get on paper.  The fine details still need to work themselves out as all these pieces of energy rotate around the trough.  Someone in the east is probably going to get buried, however.  Could be anywhere.

I spit my drink out reading that lol. :lol: I thought the same thing, is this technically a miller a, or what? It looks like on the GFS it redevelops a secondary low near SC, then as it starts moving NE starts getting captured by that energy diving down out of the Midwest which starts pulling it more NNE so I guess its sorta a miller B? Either way as of right no on the gfs it gets first prize for best costume at the Halloween parade in my book. ;)

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12 minutes ago, dj3 said:

18z gefs still looks west of 12z correct or am I missing something?

For sure it moved west and that's all you need to look at I think. I'd actually be concerned if the mean was crushing us.  

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18z eps looks east slightly from 12z. Lots of time on this and there will be some waffling back and forth. I just don’t want to see the ops start spitting out any really suppressed solutions again. 

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5 minutes ago, jimhill311 said:

Aw, geez fellas, I've got the movers scheduled to load up my stuff next Tuesday and move us back to Tennessee. Guess I need to get a contingency plan, ya think?:unsure:

Tough call there we've seen these things jump 200 miles in a day. 

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Still a ton of uncertainty with this, the GFS and Canadian are good hits, Euro is a miss east. ENS for all 3 have come west, but OPs are still western outliers so the goal posts have seemingly narrowed but we could still be anywhere from partly cloudy to major snow event. Based on everything I've seen and you put a gun to my head to make a call I still think missing / getting fringed east is the more likely scenario. Mainly I'll be looking to see the goal posts continue to narrow. A compromise between the GFS / EURO would probably work pretty well, especially at 6z GFS introduced some potential mixing issues.

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2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Still a ton of uncertainty with this, the GFS and Canadian are good hits, Euro is a miss east. ENS for all 3 have come west, but OPs are still western outliers so the goal posts have seemingly narrowed but we could still be anywhere from partly cloudy to major snow event. Based on everything I've seen and you put a gun to my head to make a call I still think missing / getting fringed east is the more likely scenario. Mainly I'll be looking to see the goal posts continue to narrow. A compromise between the GFS / EURO would probably work pretty well, especially at 6z GFS introduced some potential mixing issues.

Interesting that the GFS OP doesn't seem to be caving at all with the western track for the last several runs. Euro did take us from nothing to at least a few inches, although on the western fringe like you said. I am sorta liking where we sit at this point. 

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14 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

This looks very 94ish just from low placement and upper levels. How often does that track even happen though. Long way to go and I'm sure we are gonna see some wild run to run swings.

That kind of track has to be due again though.  At some point.

Weather Channel point and click is up to 4-6" on Sunday from about 1-3".

Hopefully this ticks west and then corrects perfectly for us.

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20 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

That kind of track has to be due again though.  At some point.

Weather Channel point and click is up to 4-6" on Sunday from about 1-3".

Hopefully this ticks west and then corrects perfectly for us.

CIPS analogs has 1/94 pretty high up there along with PD2 and Feb 2010 a little lower. GFS is starting to have the look of a hybrid miller A/B with a primary running up west and then transferring. That can certainly be good for us provided it doesn't hang on too long and we have a strong enough HP. A blend of the GFS and EURO at this point would be pretty solid for us I would think. 

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WTAE picked up on it this morning with only a vague “could be potentially looking at a significant snowfall event, but still too early to tell and you will hear it here first” tagline.

 

Wunderground showed 4” last night, 6” this morning for the same time period.

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We actually need that west trend to stop.  The GFS keeps amplifying the energy dipping down immediately behind the main system and it's sharpening the trough, which in turn pulls the main low more to the west.  We're now at the point where the lows are almost triple-stacked and pass right over Western PA.  That's danger territory if it moves any further.  We also see the high pressure scoured out to the east without much resistance.

6Z yesterday was the last time the GFS showed a true coastal.

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15 minutes ago, jwilson said:

We actually need that west trend to stop.  The GFS keeps amplifying the energy dipping down immediately behind the main system and it's sharpening the trough, which in turn pulls the main low more to the west.  We're now at the point where the lows are almost triple-stacked and pass right over Western PA.  That's danger territory if it moves any further.  We also see the high pressure scoured out to the east without much resistance.

6Z yesterday was the last time the GFS showed a true coastal.

I noticed this as well. That warm air is getting closer and closer to being sucked up right over western PA. A return of that dreaded warm tongue of death. 

The good news is that the GEFS is in a good spot. Moving west with each run, but for now it is good. I think...

 

Screen Shot 2022-01-12 at 9.25.22 AM.png

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20 minutes ago, jwilson said:

We actually need that west trend to stop.  The GFS keeps amplifying the energy dipping down immediately behind the main system and it's sharpening the trough, which in turn pulls the main low more to the west.  We're now at the point where the lows are almost triple-stacked and pass right over Western PA.  That's danger territory if it moves any further.  We also see the high pressure scoured out to the east without much resistance.

6Z yesterday was the last time the GFS showed a true coastal.

UKMET and EURO are still east enough that I think ground truth ending up between the GFS and other models would leave us happy. We are always walking a fine line, 24 hours ago we needed a huge west shift to even be in the game. We get it, and now we're already worrying about mixing haha.

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If the ensembles were super amped and showed tons of hits I'd be concerned that this was gonna be a Youngstown special. I think we are in a great spot for possible warning level snow. We need everything to line up perfectly for 12+ and we know this.

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2 minutes ago, north pgh said:

There is still time for this storm to go anywhere. I would still prefer a decent snow event with mixing issues to a dry miss to the East. 

Seconded, as long as “mixing issues” means sleet/zr that cuts into totals and not 6” of snow that ends as rain and wipes half of the snow out.

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