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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What the f are you talking about.  I just said "it's obviously coherent" and your telling me that IS my point..

No shit Sherlock.  ...So you must mean, 'coherent as in detectably forcing the Northern Hem' ?

wrong -

the MJO is not enforcing the NH when it is not even emerged barely out of the Marine continent ... thus, that's not what's causing that

What is lost on you is that the pattern in place has been consistent with an MJO wave in the marine continent during la nina. Launching vulgarities doesn't make you right.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is lost on you is that the pattern in place has been consistent with an MJO wave in the marine continent during la nina. Launching vulgarities doesn't make you right.

There was not coherent wave at all, before 4 days ago -

and you can handle a, " what the f are you talking about"  

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Never said that the strike through but nice gaslight LOL

I know what I am talking about. 

Sorry ...I do -

I have never implied that you don't know what you're talking about, but I think sometimes you get extremely focused on one changing aspect of the atmosphere, namely the Hadley Cell expansion, and it biases your perception of everything else. 

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What the f are you talking about.  I just said "it's obviously coherent" and your telling me that IS my point..

No shit Sherlock.  ...So you must mean, 'coherent as in detectably forcing the Northern Hem' ?

wrong -

the MJO is not enforcing the NH when it is not even emerged barely out of the Marine continent ... thus, that's not what's causing that

It’s going to help cause some dateline ridging which would help dump cold into the west. Are you stating something else?

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There was not coherent wave at all, before 4 days ago -

and you can handle a, " what the f are you talking about"  

I was driving....sorry. You were right about November. I should have checked before making that assertion. However, I stand by the fact that the MJO should definitively have some signifiant influence moving forward in the month of December while in phase 7.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s going to help cause some dateline ridging which would help dump cold into the west. Are you stating something else?

I created a lot of confusion by implying the MJO influenced November very much because it did not. However, I don't think its a coincidence that a lot of the long range guidance has the gradient look that is featured in MJO phase 7 during la nina composite, as the MJO reinvigorates in said phase.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I created a lot of confusion by implying the MJO influenced November very much because it did not. However, I don't think its a coincidence that a lot of the long range guidance has the gradient look that is featured in MJO phase 7 during la nina composite, as the MJO reinvigorates in said phase.

It was pretty stout for November. I’d say it had some effect although it’s tough for me to quantify exactly how much. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was pretty stout for November. I’d say it had some effect although it’s tough for me to quantify exactly how much. 

Well, it spent most of the month in the circle of death...but the monthly composite looked an awful lot like what you would expect if it were impacting. lol

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was driving....sorry. You were right about November. I should have checked before making that assertion. However, I stand by the fact that the MJO should definitively have some signifiant influence moving forward in the month of December while in phase 7.

Driving and posting?

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25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s going to help cause some dateline ridging which would help dump cold into the west. Are you stating something else?

The problem is... the momentum/flux of the MJO is distributed on the south side of the equator -

publication states that clearly -

So, that being said...  the momentum is not moving N through the equatorial 'boundary' condition. 

I keep saying this, and it's seems to be conditionally being accepted - ... I'm willing to go with that, "IF" the wave grows and start actually propagating on the N side of the Equatorial climo - ... we'll see.  Until that happens, less to negligible influence.

Also, the wave is in destructive interference with La Nina, which may be 'why' it is having trouble propagating on the N side - not sure... But, the longer term climate statistical correlation, La Nina's and Phase 8 ... not so good.

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, it spent most of the month in the circle of death...but the monthly composite looked an awful lot like what you would expect if it were impacting. lol

Those graphics can be misleading because other MJO variables can mask it and cause issues. Ventrice told me that once. Looking at this, I’d say the wave was formidable. 
 

0E951388-8445-469D-A10C-05117BE1FBE9.png

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33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have never implied that you don't know what you're talking about, but I think sometimes you get extremely focused on one changing aspect of the atmosphere, namely the Hadley Cell expansion, and it biases your perception of everything else

Nope -

No one is considering it enough -  ...

Particularly when it is papered - it's really more like reticence to accept change when it doesn't fit well-known and accepted [ institutional ] narratives.   It's not me doing jack shit to promote anything - I frankly go after objectivity.  

I have been perfectly clear, all along, the HC expansion is modulating the previous model -

Although, I pushed - admittedly - the fast velocity bias of the hemisphere as being related to that... To which I do believe that to be the case.  We'll see.   

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Things must be pretty dismal out there for a cyber fist fight to break out over the MJO.  Outside of (perhaps)south coastal NE and the Cape and Islands it will be a white Christmas for everyone. if we count Russian Orthodox Christmas (Jan 7 by the Gregorian calendar) even those left out on Dec 25 will end up with snow on the ground. The MOJO is absolutely clear about this. Even a monkey's uncle could figure that one out.

PS Don't ever underestimate the power of wishful weenie thinking. 

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The problem is... the momentum/flux of the MJO is distributed on the south side of the equator -

publication states that clearly -

So, that being said...  the momentum is not moving N through the equatorial 'boundary' condition. 

I keep saying this, and it's seems to be conditionally being accepted - ... I'm willing to go with that, "IF" the wave grows and start actually propagating on the N side of the Equatorial climo - ... we'll see.  Until that happens, less to negligible influence.

Also, the wave is in destructive interference with La Nina, which may be 'why' it is having trouble propagating on the N side - not sure... But, the longer term climate statistical correlation, La Nina's and Phase 8 ... not so good.

Ahh ok. I see what you mean. I’d have to look at the diagnostics but as you can see above, the forcing does weaken in that 5S-10N band. Perhaps attributed to that?

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Ahh ok. I see what you mean. I’d have to look at the diagnostics but as you can see above, the forcing does weaken in that 5S-10N band. Perhaps attributed to that?

It would seem to be the case - exactly ...

What I am less sure about is whether the destructive interference of La Nina is what is preventing the wave from "as much" ( less anyway ...) strength in the N latitude there.  

But you know... when sending wave through a fluid medium ( for the general audience in saying this ...) the wave grows laterally as it moves forward.  Wild imagination to say ... but, what if the wave got so intense it sort of "tunneled" through the inhibition, and then started showing up more propagating convection on the N side...  It's all about dominating forces, and La Nina could lose out if wave got exceptional - conjecture.

 

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Those graphics can be misleading because other MJO variables can mask it and cause issues. Ventrice told me that once. Looking at this, I’d say the wave was formidable. 
 

0E951388-8445-469D-A10C-05117BE1FBE9.png

Before I viewed that graphic, it certainly appeared to me that the MJO had an imprint on November....probably like everything else, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

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28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The problem is... the momentum/flux of the MJO is distributed on the south side of the equator -

publication states that clearly -

So, that being said...  the momentum is not moving N through the equatorial 'boundary' condition. 

I keep saying this, and it's seems to be conditionally being accepted - ... I'm willing to go with that, "IF" the wave grows and start actually propagating on the N side of the Equatorial climo - ... we'll see.  Until that happens, less to negligible influence.

Also, the wave is in destructive interference with La Nina, which may be 'why' it is having trouble propagating on the N side - not sure... But, the longer term climate statistical correlation, La Nina's and Phase 8 ... not so good.

I'm not arguing that it isn't biased in favor of S hem...I'll defer to your source on that. And its also very questionable whether it ever gets to phase 8, but there is plenty of evidence that it excites in phase 7.

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