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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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Forecast has the change over after 9 am Friday, light accumulation during the day.. Friday night we should have better ratios with the NW flow.. Hoping for a decent 3"-6" lol

Friday
Rain and snow showers, becoming all snow after 9am. Areas of blowing snow between 9am and 4pm. High near 38. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday Night
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Northwest wind 15 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
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Sunday through Monday the guidance suite is coming into better
agreement on dropping a fairly potent shortwave through the backside
of the mean upper level trough across our region...with this feature
eventually carving out a small closed low over New York State and/or
New England by Monday...while also helping to deepen the larger-
scale upper level trough. Meanwhile at the surface...an attendant
elongated surface wave will slide over or just south of our region
on Sunday...before redeveloping off the New England coastline on
Monday.

The above developments will result in a good chance for a general
light snowfall developing across our area Sunday into Sunday night.
PoPs have thus been raised substantially from continuity to account
for this...and can foresee a need to raise these even further in
later packages should current model trends persist. As the surface
low redevelops off the New England coastline later Sunday night and
Monday...a cyclonic northwesterly flow of colder air will develop
across our region and lead to the development of areas of lake
effect snow to the southeast of both lakes...along with a few more
synoptic snow showers elsewhere.
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Forecast soundings show plenty of moisture in the
snow growth layer through most of the overnight, however the
best omega is still progged to be just below the snow growth
layer...all in all, things still look rather favorable for snow
to liquid ratios reaching 13-16:1 for a time. With QPF amounts
between 0.20 to 0.40", that would indicate snow amounts of 3 to
6 inches in the favored areas around Syracuse, south into the
higher elevations of the northern Susquehanna & Finger Lakes
regions. Still a bit too far out to go with a winter weather
advisory at this time, however confidence in these amounts is
increasing. Will cover this potential in the HWO for now. If
things line up even better than currently forecast (i.e. max
Omega becomes better co-located within the snow growth region)
the 90th percentile amounts are pushing 6-8" locally around
Syracuse and the higher elevations just south. Winds will
continue blowing at 15-25 mph and gusty at times overnight,
creating areas of blowing, and perhaps drifting snow in wide
open areas. Further south, expect scattered snow showers and
flurries for the Twin Tiers (up to 1" or so here), with just
isolated flurries and partly cloudy skies for the Wyoming
Valley/Poconos region. It will be colder with lows well down
into the 20s.

StormTotalSnowWeb (9).jpg

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Looks like we might have an interesting drive back from Tennessee on Sunday. At least it's looking like snow and not ice. The last time we came down to Tennessee for Thanksgiving (2019) we came back to Freezing rain around Buffalo, sleetstorm in Rochester, and Graupel storm in Syracuse. The thruway was a disaster.

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17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Monday could be a great day of Lake enhanced snows if that Low is off New England. Lake enhanced snows are my favorite! Hours and hours of steadier snowfalls in moist environment with no shenanigans of mixing, dry layers, shear, blah blah blah.

Couldn’t agree more. I love how a LP can prime that atmosphere and blanket us with enhanced snow. Little grainy flakes from the LP and parachutes from the lake. Perfect combo

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4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Couldn’t agree more. I love how a LP can prime that atmosphere and blanket us with enhanced snow. Little grainy flakes from the LP and parachutes from the lake. Perfect combo

YES!!! When I lived in West Michigan, we would get them with cold Alberta clippers on a SW flow off the wide part of Lake Michigan. They were the heaviest and most enjoyable snowfalls of Winters there. I know you guys rock them on NE flow and Syracuse cashes in on NW flow with those Retrograding Lows. But, you and I can both often enjoy them in some form at different times of an event.

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

YES!!! When I lived in West Michigan, we would get them with cold Alberta clippers on a SW flow off the wide part of Lake Michigan. They were the heaviest and most enjoyable snowfalls of Winters there. I know you guys rock them on NE flow and Syracuse cashes in on NW flow with those Retrograding Lows. But, you and I can both often enjoy them in some form at different times of an event.

We might be seeing the first area wide snow advisories for the entire CWA

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Three houses I own, one in Lynbrook in Nassau County, one in Liberty in Sullivan County and one now in Cicero (Ononangda County.)

 

After T day turkey in Liberty later heading for Cicero this evening since LES kicking in. Kitchen update being redone so just a mini fridge and mini microwave there

 

Takeout 1-2 miles away, hope my AWD SVU will handle roads up there well but I heard with 3-6 inches it shouldn't be too bad to go out ( hope so)

 

Learning about the sweets pots of where heavier snows fall, almost like the Heavier snows for NYC are usually to the North and West of the city

 

Jeff

 

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