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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Oops. Made the mistake of trying to interact with the twats on the Mid Atlantic subforum. Called them insufferable jackoffs. lol....so thankful for this subforum.

I hope they get 15 inches of rain and 10 dustings all winter.

The entire crew here should go like that post. 

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44 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Oops. Made the mistake of trying to interact with the twats on the Mid Atlantic subforum. Called them insufferable jackoffs. lol....so thankful for this subforum.

I hope they get 15 inches of rain and 10 dustings all winter.

Stay away from every other forum. I visit every single one of them and we're the best one by far.

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5 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Oops. Made the mistake of trying to interact with the twats on the Mid Atlantic subforum. Called them insufferable jackoffs. lol....so thankful for this subforum.

I hope they get 15 inches of rain and 10 dustings all winter.

To be fair...several of them have been kind and given good responses/suggestions....so for those guys, may they get 15 inches of snow and 10 inches of rain instead. ;)

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6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The backdrop of colors against his black coat makes for a fantastic picture! This legit could be a puzzle.

Thank you! A friend of mine is starting a pet photography business and did this for us for free to build her portfolio. Going to give her something since they came out so nice. There are others that were incredible, but that one is my favorite picture ever taken of him and we have like 10k pictures of him lol

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Friday night and Saturday the vertically stacked low will continue
to elongate and push eastward...with its axis reaching western
Quebec and western New England by early Saturday evening. As this
system pushes further east...an embedded strong shortwave and
secondary cold front will also slide eastward and across our area.
These features will bring about a general chance for some additional
scattered showers...while also ushering in a secondary shot of
colder air aloft. Coupled with a corresponding increase in
background synoptic-scale moisture...the progressively colder air
crossing the warmer waters of the Lower Great Lakes will help to
trigger a lake response. This will initially take shape off Lake
Erie on a somewhat sheared south-southwesterly flow Friday night...
which will help to direct the bulk of the activity across the
Niagara Peninsula... Niagara county...and adjoining portions of
Northern Erie and Orleans counties. On Saturday the low level flow
over Lake Erie will then gradually veer more west-southwesterly...
which will result in the Lake Erie lake effect drifting south to
areas ENE of the lake. At the same time a southwesterly flow will
develop across Lake Ontario...allowing for a band of lake effect
showers to develop across Jefferson county and the uppermost Saint
Lawrence Valley.

With respect to precipitation type...current thermal profiles still
suggest that the column will remain warm enough for the bulk of the
precipitation to fall in the form of plain rain through Saturday...
save for the higher terrain where some wet snow may mix in later
Friday night/early Saturday morning...and again toward Saturday
evening. With regard to surface temperatures...lows Friday night
should range from the mid 30s across the colder interior portions of
the Southern Tier/North Country to the upper 30s/near 40
elsewhere...with highs on Saturday then ranging from the upper 30s
to mid 40s across far western New York to the mid and upper 40s
further east.
Saturday night and Sunday upper level troughing and plentiful cool
air aloft will persist across our region...helping to support a
continued lake response downwind of the lakes. In general the medium
range model consensus supports a continued veering of the low level
flow to westerly for Saturday night and the first part of Sunday...
with the flow then backing a bit again to west-southwest during
Sunday as the main upper level trough reloads across the Upper Great
Lakes...and a corresponding weak surface wave develops across
Michigan/southern Ontario. Should this verify...any lake effect
activity should drift further south to areas east of the lakes for
Saturday night/early Sunday...before migrating a bit northward again
during Sunday. With 850 mb temps lowering just a little further to
-5C to -6C thermal profiles will become more marginal for rain vs.
snow...with the resultant ptype therefore more dependent on the
precipitation intensity and time of day. At this point some
accumulating snows are not out of the question Saturday night and
Sunday morning as the lake effect begins to intersect the higher
terrain...however it remains far too early to attempt to pin down
locations and amounts.

Sunday night and Monday the medium range guidance continues to
gradually come into better agreement on the aforementioned surface
wave crossing our region in conjunction with the passage of the main
upper level trough axis. Such a scenario would likely at least
temporarily weaken if not outright disrupt any lake effect via
corresponding adjustments to the low level flow...while also
bringing about a more general chance of rain and snow showers.
Following the passage of this feature...a general west-northwesterly
flow of colder air (850 mb temps of -7C to -9C) should then follow
for Monday night and Tuesday...leading to some additional lake
effect precipitation east-southeast of both lakes. During this
latter time frame...have elected to lean more heavily on the
ECMWF/GEM solutions rather than the GFS...which appears much too
fast at ejecting the upper trough and bringing warm air advection
into our area on Tuesday.
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Latest gfs run from 0z this morning has removed heat flux into stratosphere that it was showing a few days ago. Has been a good correlation with any strong bout of heat flux, we get a period of -NAM to follow.

 gfs_nh-ehflx_20211110.png.c409d173768e336172c82998b7466418.png

Anyways, wrote about this I believe this past weekend about wave 2 hit on SPV near tgiving,. Can now see this on the strat maps. I'm looking for a good cold shot around tgiving timeframe, if current progs hold on 

 

gfs_nh-hgt-w2-60n_20211110.png.3f3e28bae02f27a67a28cbd299d66449.png

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3 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

Tennessee Valley is good people :D

But I agree. Y'all the crunkest on the board iwabh

Crunkest....what an interesting adjective....lol

The Central PA guys are a good group too. Living in different parts of the northeastern part of the country and interacting on different subforums though, I love ours. It's a good reminder to me that while New Yorkers have a strong, cold exterior about them, many are teddy bears at heart and really do care about others. They just have an interesting way of showing it. As much as I find people in the Syracuse area miserable, they are some of the most generous I've ever met...and once they FINALLY open up to you, they are LOYAL friends.

Glad to have you join us...and I look forward to chatting about "our area" with you this lake effect season.

P.S. I am going to Tennessee during Thanksgiving week (wife's sister/family live in Clarksville)...which as the guys on here know...means WINTER STORM. They love when I go away during the winter because I take my curse with me. lol

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