Syrmax Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Totally forgot about him, he has a chance. I'd put the odds at about 33.33333% So low? There are epic melts in good patterns...esp if your avatar is "annoying." cc: RochesterDave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Matt's future about late January: D_G5KipXUAAs3Z-.mp4 Too late. I just did it after looking at the 12Z GFS looking like the 0Z Euro for Christmas... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Too late. I just did it after looking at the 12Z GFS looking like the 0Z Euro for Christmas... It looks like it has a follow up wave? It does show some snow for southern areas the following day..I'm not sure what it's trying to do lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: So low? There are epic melts in good patterns...esp if your avatar is "annoying." cc: RochesterDave Lol...Yes, in my defense, if I may I don't melt AT others because of their personal interests. Poor rochesterdave and Tim....I think freak has a deep-seeded hatred towards Rochester. They take lots of abuse over the duration of a winter. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: So low? There are epic melts in good patterns...esp if your avatar is "annoying." cc: RochesterDave I’ll have to pull out my good avatar. I still remember Freak going off on me about my “stupid face”. Lol. Freak would be the underdog (Matt and I the picks) but when he goes he REALLY goes. I actually miss a good Freak meltdown. He’s incredibly funny when he’s hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: It looks like it has a follow up wave? It does show some snow for southern areas the following day..I'm not sure what it's trying to do lol Yeah, it ends up making the followup wave an intense burst of snow. I think they're trying to key in on a baroclinic zone starting to set up next week and they haven't figured it out yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 GFS saves the melts temporarily. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’ll have to pull out my good avatar. I still remember Freak going off on me about my “stupid face”. Lol. Freak would be the underdog (Matt and I the picks) but when he goes he REALLY goes. I actually miss a good Freak meltdown. He’s incredibly funny when he’s hot. Does this ring a bell: "NOBODY CARES WHAT'S GOING ON IN YOUR STUPID YARD IN ROCHESTER, YOU IDIOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS saves the melts temporarily. I don't know....all I see is the band bend southward as it tries to avoid me and creates a little weenie off the lake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I was certainly under the impression that @TugHillMatt hated snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS saves the melts temporarily. It's not called the GooFuS for nothing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Our friends on the PA subforum are starting to crack a bit now. All the cold dumping into the Northwest on the 12Z GFS is a bit disconcerting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Canadian pretty weak as it transfers to a weak coastal low.. Maybe a few snow showers changing to rain showers.. Only about a tenth or two wrt precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 Dark horse candidate for epic January melt would be @Thinksnow18 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I'm probably the least likely to have a meltdown, I take my aggression out on my woman, shes been enjoying this rough stretch 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Who is ready for some Seattle weather? That's what we are going to be seeing for the foreseeable future. We need some good blocking over Ontario/Quebec but that won't be happening...so the next best case would be for that -NAO to move over a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I'm probably the least likely to have a meltdown, I take my aggression out on my woman, shes been enjoying this rough stretch We do NOT want to know what the toothless people do in their spare time..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Who is ready for some Seattle weather? That's what we are going to be seeing for the foreseeable future. We need some good blocking over Ontario/Quebec but that won't be happening...so the next best case would be for that -NAO to move over a bit. We need PAC help. You can have atlantic blocking all day but if you have that warm SW flow there is little hope of a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 The Canadian weenies out a couple days after Christmas and could give us enough before for a white Christmas. since Canadian people are nicer, I choose this outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: We need PAC help. You can have atlantic blocking all day but if you have that warm SW flow there is little hope of a good pattern. I agree...I am just looking at it with what CAN we work with....which is the NAO to maybe give us enough cold for a snow/mix at the start of systems...which can often happen in this setup. BUT, as we saw this past weekend, the mega -PNA and SE ridge combo are even making that difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: We do NOT want to know what the toothless people do in their spare time..... You do realize I'm not a local right? Lol Just as many toothless crack heads in syracuse lol Actually probably more..The first thing I see when getting off 481 to clay is a bum begging for money lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: You do realize I'm not a local right? Lol Just as many toothless crack heads in syracuse lol Actually probably more..The first thing I see when getting off 481 to clay is a bum begging for money lol You always take my teasing you seriously. I just said that because Syrmax calls the region's people that. Haha.... Plus your comment comes across as something a toothless person would do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: You do realize I'm not a local right? Lol Just as many toothless crack heads in syracuse lol Actually probably more..The first thing I see when getting off 481 to clay is a bum begging for money lol Let’s not forget RevRacer in Hannibal. It is the capital for cars on blocks and bathtub Virgin Marys’. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We need PAC help. You can have atlantic blocking all day but if you have that warm SW flow there is little hope of a good pattern. Bingo. Pac>atl. You can still have a -pna but not a -5 standard deviation one 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Every shift of models...there is at least one.... I swear @Syrmaxand @BuffaloWeatherhave a secret lair where they conspire and hack the models.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I think it’s going to be my mission to get @TugHillMattto jump off the cliff. You know when you’re little and someone teaches you how to ride a bike they are behind you holding the seat guiding you a long. That’s going to be me guiding Matt off the cliff 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Every shift of models...there is at least one.... I swear @Syrmaxand @BuffaloWeatherhave a secret lair where they conspire and hack the models.... Ooo, you mean like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Bingo. Pac>atl. You can still have a -pna but not a -5 standard deviation one Yeah we've been saying it for awhile on these forums while others along the east coast require more blocking. It's virtually impossible to get a good LES pattern without a -EPO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I think it’s going to be my mission to get @TugHillMattto jump off the cliff. You know when you’re little and someone teaches you how to ride a bike they are behind you holding the seat guiding you a long. That’s going to be me guiding Matt off the cliff You must be excited not to live in PA anymore. I don't even have a dusting yet here in NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Ooo, you mean like this Is that your location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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