rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Warmer yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Pretty close to the kbuf map.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Prima facie evidence of non-CO2 based Climate Change. cc: @TugHillMatt 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yes I’m aware. Guess I’m just surprised that very few of those runs have shown any type of real warmth is all. Yeah its going to be a warm christmas, Hopefully january is rockin! 40 degree lakes in mid january should get us going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Pretty disappointing just the same. ICON always had this pretty far north. It’ll be another win for this model (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 If RGEM wins it’ll be remarkable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: If RGEM wins it’ll be remarkable Lol yeah no chance. Models always too far south with the warm air intrusion. Never fails. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Gah. We have to always go with the farthest north track. Unfortunately, the farthest north keeps going farther north on the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Thats a cutter profile for sure. Blocking in all the wrong places. Fast Forwarding to May would be best at this point. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Well, if we do manage to get some snow on the ground, perhaps some of it can survive the 35 to 40 degree temps for the next week for a Patchy White Christmas...or Snow Pile Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The warm anomalies look perkier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Winter Cancel. Lol, you guys. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Yeah. RGEM is great for LES. Really poor for synoptic R/S lines. It’s still tight but the writing is pretty much on the wall. Gotta give credit to the crew here. I feel like most of us saw this coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Man the 18z hi res RGEM is a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Man the 18z hi res RGEM is a thing of beauty. Yep.. But tread very cautiously!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Hey quick question…what does the GEFS show during the same timeframe? Answer, it’s very different than the EPS…why are we choosing just that model? In fact the GEFS doubles down by New Years and would have quite the cold outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The difference appears to be it keeps that lower level cold locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Hey quick question…what does the GEFS show during the same timeframe? Answer, it’s very different than the EPS…why are we choosing just that model? In fact the GEFS doubles down by New Years and would have quite the cold outbreak. Those two suites are like siblings that can never get along and always go different ways...just cause... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Those two suites are like siblings that can never get along and always go different ways...just cause... Well I guess that’s why I’m trying to understand why only the EPS is being shown…the other global ensemble says hold my beer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said: Yep.. But tread very cautiously!!!! I live right above the lower number 7 on this map. We shall revisit at 2 pm tomorrow when it is 33F and drizzling...... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. The higher totals will be over the southern Adirondacks, and the Lake George Glens Falls area. * WHERE...The southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, northern Capital Region of Schenectady and southern Saratoga Counties, Lake George northern Saratoga Region of eastern New York. * WHEN...From 11 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions due to snow covered roads and reduced vsibilities in the snowfall. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates will approach an inch an hour Saturday afternoon into the evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 HRRR folded in spectacular fashion 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 The H in HRRRRRR stands for heartbreak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 NAM looking ugly early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Starting to think this “winter” will be crammed at some point to a 3 week timeframe. I believe it happened in January of ‘20 (when life was still normal) and we received a shit ton of snow at KBUF the last 2 weeks of January (40-60” if memory serves me) and that basically saved that winter. Kinda feeling a similar setup with a lot of ups and downs around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 The cold air really fights east of Ontario on the NAM, mix line gets to syracuse for several hours but doesn't advance north of S Oswego.. Going to be razor thin as it usually is here lol Forecast calls for snow/sleet so expecting some pingers... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 As shitty as the 0z HRRR and NAM look, the odds of atleast an inch in Pittsford still look good. This storm's not dead yet folks... not by a long shot! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Insert weenie model here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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