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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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6 hours ago, madwx said:

For a few runs now the GFS has a carbon copy of this weeks storm happening next Thursday into Friday.  Can’t wait to do it all again 

This time, at least as of latest 06z run it's already starting out with the heavy swath passing south of us (through central IL) so watch it end up going through southeast Missouri, Kentucky and far southern Indiana/Ohio. In late February. :facepalm:
Also MKX has a 70% chance of snow for Monday night and 50% Tuesday, but GFS doesn't really show any increase in accumulation over us in that timeframe.

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On 2/6/2022 at 4:06 PM, Chicago Storm said:

As mentioned in the February thread, the pattern we are now is fairly zzz overall. Ridging around the West Coast and PV location between Greenland and the Hudson during this stretch. Mostly a duster clipper pattern for most, though maybe a bit more at times (See late week clipper), though more MN/WI/MI favored then. A to BA temperature wise for most as well.

Around or just after Valentines Day is the time to watch for our next significant pattern shift. It's looking increasingly likely that we will shift into a +AO/+NAO/-PNA pattern, with still some question on the EPO (+ or neutral seems most likely). Also it looks like the PV will still be persistent just north of the Hudson up in Canada. That pattern would be favorable for a shift back to an active pattern, with quality storm potential (Rain & snow).

Bump.

Pattern change occurred as advertised early this week/this past weekend, with an active pattern this week and next week. As expected we are seeing a +AO/+NAO/-PNA, though the EPO will end up neutral/- overall instead of neutral/+. While the aforementioned EPO and the persistent PV based north of the Hudson will help keep this period from being an all out torch with significantly NW cutting storm systems, we obviously are/will see mild temp pushes (Current push, and one or two next week) and rainer risk for some.

Looks like our next pattern change will occur at the very end of the month and as we enter early March. Early signs from ENS would suggest the potential for a +AO/+NAO/-EPO and neutral/+PNA pattern, which would suggest we would have the potential to flip back to a more consistently cooler/colder and potentially at least a somewhat less active pattern for bigger/organized storm systems. In addition to that, we are entering a period of SC on this side of the pole, so that would temp to support a cooler/colder idea as well during that time. We'll see how it trends, as ENS have continued to significantly struggle in the longer range this season.

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^

Great write up CStorm love the mid range analysis. That said, your thread starting days need to take a break. No offense. Hell, last threads I started were in 2014 and I couldn't miss. Might be time to come out of retirement.

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9 minutes ago, Baum said:

^

Great write up CStorm love the mid range analysis. That said, your thread starting days need to take a break. No offense. Hell, last threads I started were in 2014 and I couldn't miss. Might be time to come out of retirement.

Will give him kudos for prediction of this current system taking similar path to GHDIII. 

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28 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

encasing this snowpack in sleet and ice and topping it with a real snow would be a great end to another shit winter redemption february

 

Would be fitting to receive .5" ice on top of the 0.5" of snow we just received. Hoping for just rain next week as the redemption part of February absent here. 

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After the next 7 days or so, the polar air really looks to get scoured from the CONUS and southern Canada,  not saying it'll be warm or torch by any means but our window for highs in the 20s and lows below 15 is quickly coming to an end

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Bump.
Looks like our next pattern change will occur at the very end of the month and as we enter early March. Early signs from ENS would suggest the potential for a +AO/+NAO/-EPO and neutral/+PNA pattern, which would suggest we would have the potential to flip back to a more consistently cooler/colder and potentially at least a somewhat less active pattern for bigger/organized storm systems. We'll see how it trends, as ENS have continued to significantly struggle in the longer range this season.
The next pattern shift as expected, albeit brief, has already occurred and will be around through the middle of this upcoming week. The mean trough that had been in place out in the West with the pattern we just exited has lifted, and will be more Ontatio/Quabec/Northern Great Lakes/Northeast based for this short period of time. This is leading to a short period of near A temps (Cooler north/mild south) and less active conditions. The biggest change from my previous post regarding this short period is, ENS guidance had backed off on how cold it would be.
Beyond that, there will be yet another significant pattern shift, which will occur in two stages. The first stage appears to be brief once again, occurring from the middle of this upcoming week and continuing through later the first weekend of March or perhaps early into the first full week of March. This pattern will allow for a bigger push of mild temps and a more active storm pattern to return (Rainer potential high). This first stage of the pattern shift will be possible in part due to a +AO/+NAO/+EPO/+PNA/+WPO combo spike, with this ridge then collapsing eastward over the CONUS.
The second stage of the main pattern shift from above appears as though it will be longer lasting. We will shift into a +AO/+NAO/-EPO/-WPO/-PNA pattern. This pattern will feature a mean trough that will sit in the middle of the country, leading to the return to a much more active storm pattern once again. Regarding temps, there will be the potential for cool/cold shots given ENS trough position and teleconnections...Odds are it might end up being a cold NW/mild SE situation across the sub-forum, which would obviously introduce the opportunity for rainers and snows depending on location. Should be a pattern that favors severe weather opportunities in the Dixie/SE/TNV as well.
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Hearing rumblings of a possible PV disruption, so let’s see what happens. 

A very significant disruption of the SPV is expected from now through early to mid March.

During this time a few things look likely to happen… First off the SPV will be split, with one half fading shortly thereafter. Beyond that point, the leftover half of the SPV, in a weaker state, centers near the North Pole with significant SW over North America.


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  • 1 month later...
On 4/1/2022 at 4:51 PM, kevlon62 said:
How similar is this setup to 4/14/19?

That was a daytime event that laid it down just right.

 


Not really remotely close in most aspects.

The biggest difference of all, is that was a wrapped-up/stronger SW-NW moving storm system.

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