Riptide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 by 42 that s/w is a good deal sw compared to 12z.. hmm-- west of euro at same time as well I don't like how the northern stream is sliding eastward, reminds me of the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 by 42 that s/w is a good deal sw compared to 12z.. hmm-- west of euro at same time as well It's quite a bit drier west of the mountains, has no warm advection if you look at the 850 temps and winds so the only lifting is with the vorticity advection and some low level convergence with the 850 trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't like how the northern stream is sliding eastward, reminds me of the GGEM. it's still early in its evolving gyre tho.. if you still want coastal hope you gotta get the southern wave doing something like this. i would think this run has to be better in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Obviously Models can fook up phasing in the last second(See March 2001). Maybe this one is the reverse of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That southern PV anomaly has become so weak it really isn't even "phasing" anymore. The increasing flow aloft associated with the northern stream essentially "deforms" the flow field associated with the leftover southern PV/migratory circulation. It is basically almost a remnant circulation with little to no baroclinity associated with it in the upper levels. Makes sense, thanks for the explaination! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Eh, various small changes but end results still looks to not be very good for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Everything comes together a tad too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 looks good bit better thru 60 compared to 12z to me.. flow is about to start flipping more toward north, everything definitely west a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 way slower low gulf and florida hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hmm, is much better than 12Z. Remarkably close to a good solution. Well, if anyone needed a reason to stay up for 00Z they got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 big shift west with the precip nyc into 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 so close.. nice run -- wow that southern vort is a little pain in the arse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Night and day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hmm, is much better than 12Z. Remarkably close to a good solution. Well, if anyone needed a reason to stay up for 00Z they got it. Oh my lord, Cape Cod gets trashed according to the 18z. I imagine this could become a MECS if the shortwave slows down about 4-6 hours, it's damn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 wow..it has life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 looks to be 959 or lower at 96 off maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 man if we see similar with tonight's runs on that southern vort watch us all be back in if not already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 so close.. nice run -- wow that southern vort is a little pain in the arse Should get the new englanders excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Interesting lobe extending into Michigan/Wisconsin/Illinois at 500 around hour 60. As others have indicated, this sure looks a lot closer to "something", but not sure it's going to end up being enough or a trend. Too far east for us in the MA, but man does that thing blow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 New England still has a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 had alot go right in this run.... much stronger h5 yanked it back west. A weenie observation... reminds me a little of Jan 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 you finally get what looks to be an actual phasing of the southern stream impulse, instead of it getting completely sheared out....unfortunately it phases over N. FL, but you can see the result...a really intense storm just a bit too far out to sea....if you can get this phase to occur a bit further west...things will get much more interesting..... like was just said wrt to models and phasing....and i assume most people here have not taken advanced fluid dynamics...but wave phasing is very complicated, and very small perturbations can lead to very drastic results in a final solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This isn't so crazy that we are seeing changes 3 days out and those that have made any forgone conclusions already about this storm must not remember anything from past storm tracking. Models are never locked in this far out, plain and simple. Does that mean we'll get a storm? Not necessarily. But one small deviation here, and one small change there, can still certainly make it happen, and such type changes do happen in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Initial n. stream impulse misses phase, s. stream (being slower, is now almost phasing (or is late) with a second n. stream. Good stuff! The northern stream is really the bugger here....along with the speed of the s. stream.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thanks to you and other pros out there that post here, thank you.. Its like a library of information here.. Excellent post.. Appreciate it.. you finally get what looks to be an actual phasing of the southern stream impulse, instead of it getting completely sheared out....unfortunately it phases over N. FL, but you can see the result...a really intense storm just a bit too far out to sea....if you can get this phase to occur a bit further west...things will get much more interesting..... like was just said wrt to models and phasing....and i assume most people here have not taken advanced fluid dynamics...but wave phasing is very complicated, and very small perturbations can lead to very drastic results in a final solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 had alot go right in this run.... much stronger h5 yanked it back west. A weenie observation... reminds me a little of Jan 2000 im going to vote blip for now.. gfs is due for one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 you finally get what looks to be an actual phasing of the southern stream impulse, instead of it getting completely sheared out....unfortunately it phases over N. FL, but you can see the result...a really intense storm just a bit too far out to sea....if you can get this phase to occur a bit further west...things will get much more interesting..... like was just said wrt to models and phasing....and i assume most people here have not taken advanced fluid dynamics...but wave phasing is very complicated, and very small perturbations can lead to very drastic results in a final solution... Funny that you mention this, as I was thinking that we've seen some really big changes in both models just from 6 hours ago. Something is causing them, just don't know what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 man if we see similar with tonight's runs on that southern vort watch us all be back in if not already Cue the Godfather line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Right back where we were yesterday. Yesterday 18z / Today 18z. Not exact obviously, but much better than 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 you finally get what looks to be an actual phasing of the southern stream impulse, instead of it getting completely sheared out....unfortunately it phases over N. FL, but you can see the result...a really intense storm just a bit too far out to sea....if you can get this phase to occur a bit further west...things will get much more interesting..... like was just said wrt to models and phasing....and i assume most people here have not taken advanced fluid dynamics...but wave phasing is very complicated, and very small perturbations can lead to very drastic results in a final solution... A chance, but small. But still a small chance. A needle thread here for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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