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“Let’s Talk Winter”


Steve
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  • 2 weeks later...

There's definitely a mixed bag of factors to deliberate about this winter for our area. Given this will be a 2nd year nina, there aren't very consistent analogs to compare from this standpoint. Obviously 2011-2012 was godawful, and that type of winter is certainly a possibility. Most of the other 2nd year nina's were close to, or just below average snow.

image.thumb.png.22002194bb3c8a199eb1aea766338e47.png

 

In terms of what we can see developing now, there appears to be a SSW either ongoing or staring soon. This should lead to a weaker than normal PV overall, but it's clearly too early to how this will impact us.

image.thumb.png.435b39d7d769fb8d6cf49dba80aeaa5e.png

Another factor I'm not as familiar with is the cooling in the NPAC region. I've seen some mets point this out as a red flag for the east coast, but I'm not sure how it could affect us.https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_current.png

Overall I think this winter will be warmer than normal with probably less than average snow, but not a complete torch/snoozer. Maybe Columbus will finally break out of it's "big storm" slump.

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  • 1 month later...
  • 3 weeks later...
On 12/4/2021 at 4:32 PM, jaf316 said:

Gfs and euro both give central OH a light frosting on Tuesday night. Maybe an inch or so. Not much, but I'll take it... 

Sure looks like we could see a widespread dusting or maybe an inch. Ratios will be on our side but dry air will be hard to overcome.

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  • 3 weeks later...
35 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

What happened in that winter here? I was on east coast at the time.

December '84 was very similar.  Aside from a fluke storm at the beginning of the month, it was very warm and snowless.  After the New Year, it got cold and it was wall to wall winter for the next 7 weeks.  

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Here's 84-85

  December            
  High Low Mean Dept Precip Snowfall Depth
1 46 34 40 2 Trace 0 0
2 49 29 39 1 Trace 0 0
3 48 26 37 0 0.13 0 0
4 32 19 26 -12 0 0 0
5 30 15 23 -14 0.28 5.7 0
6 26 10 18 -18 0.1 1.6 6
7 20 6 13 -23 Trace Trace 6
8 38 19 29 -7 0 0 5
9 44 17 31 -5 0 0 3
10 44 38 41 6 0.38 0 1
11 41 37 39 5 Trace 0 Trace
12 59 38 49 14 0.08 0 0
13 59 41 50 16 0.35 0 0
14 63 42 53 19 0.11 0 0
15 55 48 52 18 0 0 0
16 64 48 56 23 0 0 0
17 67 46 57 24 Trace 0 0
18 57 32 45 12 0 0 0
19 47 34 41 8 0.16 0 0
20 40 32 36 4 0 0 0
21 59 36 48 16 0.43 Trace 0
22 55 28 42 10 0 0 0
23 45 22 34 2 0 0 0
24 47 25 36 5 Trace Trace 0
25 26 15 21 -11 Trace Trace 0
26 36 17 27 -4 Trace Trace 0
27 56 35 46 15 0 0 0
28 68 53 61 30 0.03 0 0
29 64 50 57 27 0.46 0 0
30 50 33 42 11 0.28 0 0
31 53 35 44 14 0.05 0 0
               
Avg 48 31 39.5 6 2.84 7.3 0.7

 

  January            
  High Low Mean Dept Precip Snowfall Depth
1 65 33 49 21 0.09 0 0
2 34 30 32 4 0.01 Trace 0
3 34 26 30 3 0 0 0
4 36 28 32 5 Trace 0 0
5 40 30 35 8 Trace Trace 0
6 34 29 32 5 0 0 0
7 35 31 33 6 0.13 1.4 1
8 32 13 23 -4 0.03 0.4 1
9 21 7 14 -13 0 0 1
10 27 19 23 -4 0.18 4.9 2
11 24 14 19 -7 0.01 0.3 5
12 20 12 16 -10 Trace Trace 5
13 29 13 21 -5 0 0 5
14 30 19 25 -1 0.08 1.6 4
15 20 8 14 -12 0.01 0.3 5
16 22 4 13 -13 0.04 0.5 4
17 32 20 26 0 0.17 1.9 6
18 33 20 27 1 0.2 3.1 6
19 27 -5 11 -15 Trace Trace 9
20 -5 -19 -12 -38 Trace 0.2 8
21 11 -16 -3 -29 0.02 0.6 8
22 21 11 16 -10 0.02 0.7 8
23 28 17 23 -3 Trace Trace 8
24 30 25 28 2 0.06 1 8
25 30 14 22 -4 0.14 3.7 8
26 18 5 12 -14 Trace Trace 10
27 28 12 20 -6 0 0 9
28 27 22 25 -1 Trace Trace 7
29 24 14 19 -7 Trace Trace 6
30 32 10 21 -5 Trace 0.1 5
31 34 25 30 4 0.12 1.2 5
               
Avg 28.2 15.2 21.7 -4.6 1.31 21.9

4.6

  February            
  High Low Mean Dept Precip Snowfall Depth
1 25 11 18 -12 0.04 1 5
2 14 2 8 -22 0.07 2.4 6
3 15 -10 3 -28 0 0 8
4 25 -9 8 -23 0 0 8
5 33 19 26 -5 0.05 0.4 8
6 32 12 22 -9 0.02 0.3 7
7 16 7 12 -20 Trace Trace 7
8 19 1 10 -21 Trace Trace 7
9 24 -7 9 -23 0 0 7
10 31 5 18 -14 0.1 1.3 6
11 44 30 37 5 0.13 Trace 7
12 37 27 32 0 0.42 4.1 5
13 27 18 23 -10 0.2 2.5 11
14 23 14 19 -14 0.03 0.5 11
15 19 8 14 -19 Trace Trace 11
16 32 1 17 -16 0 0 11
17 39 23 31 -2 0 0 10
18 40 14 27 -6 Trace Trace 9
19 37 24 31 -3 Trace Trace 7
20 40 19 30 -4 0 0 6
21 49 25 37 3 0.05 0 5
22 49 42 46 11 0.42 0 2
23 66 46 56 21 Trace 0 Trace
24 62 39 51 16 0.14 0 0
25 40 33 37 1 0 0 0
26 48 35 42 6 0 0 0
27 42 28 35 -1 Trace 0 0
28 46 24 35 -1 0 0 0
               
Avg 34.8 17.2 26 -6.8 1.67 12.5 5.9

 

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The 57th Hocking Hills Annual Winter Hike is in two weeks at the Old Man Cave State Park and no ice formations or snow so far. With the models showing near normal temps over the next two weeks, no hope for the real winter like scenes.  The last real winter we've had here in Ohio was Jan. of 2014 and my avatar pic was at Ash Cave that year, it almost froze all the way to the top (85ft) and that only has happend once since I've been around and it happened in Jan/Feb of '78.

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