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Central PA - Fall 2021


canderson
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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Newman - I think you are one of the student mets putting out forecasts for MU, and I see that the official MU Winter Forecast is coming out literally right now - what is the overall sense of your group for the upcoming winter? (if you don't mind sharing) 

Can you get a copy of the report?

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55 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

As hard as forecasting is I do have to say that those two panels basically just said "Not so good snow wise...unless it is good".  No offense to your posts. 

 

 

I was just thinking the same.  The risk part takes away much of what they put into the forecast part.  That kind of forecast/risk assessment thrown on this site is usually one that takes a beating.  Remove the risk part, and if verified would be impressive (or not if you are a snow weenie).  I'm going to look at what last year wasnt to be vs how it turned out (better) and just hope for another surprise year.  No matter, I'll view 10+ day maps with little weight until something tells me otherwise.

edit-and for any that think I'm showing bias, show me a forecast that says get shovels ready....and put a pile of risk factors into it...and I'll view it just the same as Horsts.

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15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I was just thinking the same.  The risk part takes away much of what they put into the forecast part.  That kind of forecast/risk assessment thrown on this site is usually one that takes a beating.  Remove the risk part, and if verified would be impressive (or not if you are a snow weenie).  I'm going to look at what last year wasnt to be vs how it turned out (better) and just hope for another surprise year.  No matter, I'll view 10+ day maps with little weight until something tells me otherwise.

edit-and for any that think I'm showing bias, show me a forecast that says get shovels ready....and put a pile of risk factors into it...and I'll view it just the same as Horsts.

Elliott's?

https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/about/index.php

 

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23 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I was just thinking the same.  The risk part takes away much of what they put into the forecast part.  That kind of forecast/risk assessment thrown on this site is usually one that takes a beating.  Remove the risk part, and if verified would be impressive (or not if you are a snow weenie).  I'm going to look at what last year wasnt to be vs how it turned out (better) and just hope for another surprise year.  No matter, I'll view 10+ day maps with little weight until something tells me otherwise.

edit-and for any that think I'm showing bias, show me a forecast that says get shovels ready....and put a pile of risk factors into it...and I'll view it just the same as Horsts.

 

18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yes, Kyle Elliott. Horst retired over a year ago. Elliott came to MU from AccuWeather (I believe) 

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Well they sure covered all their bases didn't they!? :lol:

Truthfully I thought that was an extremely detailed winter forecast. When you have average snowfall as low as we do and the fact that one major storm can account for 80%+ of snowfall and the fact of how hard it is to predict those storms even 72hours out let alone months I have considerably more respect for forecast as detailed as this. With the high variability in accumulations we have between storms and between +\- 25 miles of any location maybe the best way to judge forecast would be if they issued #of storms between an accumulation range (I.e 1-3,3-6,6-9,9-12,12-15,15-18) and there confidence percentage so that by taking the median multiplied by number by % percentage confidence they come up with snowfall.


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