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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

It’s been a deluge for the better part of 2 hours…in fact from almost the moment it began to rain it was moderate to heavy. The 6pm update @ KBUF said .67” but it has to be over an inch especially with the amount of ponding and standing water on the roadways, even the mains WITHOUT leaves snd fall debris. 

1.34” here in a few hours time. Yards everywhere flooded. I mean yards had standing water before this event with how much rain we’ve had lately. 

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44 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

1.34” here in a few hours time. Yards everywhere flooded. I mean yards had standing water before this event with how much rain we’ve had lately. 

I saw on the weather channel about 45 minutes ago that NYC has measured 10” rain July, August, September and 4.3 so far in October…almost 35” since July 1st!!! Our annual rainfall in Buffalo is I believe 38” for the year!!! It has definitely been wet in the North East

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I saw on the weather channel about 45 minutes ago that NYC has measured 10” rain July, August, September and 4.3 so far in October…almost 35” since July 1st!!! Our annual rainfall in Buffalo is I believe 38” for the year!!! It has definitely been wet in the North East

Yeah I’m just under 9” in October. Incredibly wet month around here. 

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On 10/28/2021 at 1:53 PM, DeltaT13 said:

An interesting data point for sure.  Yesterday was wall to wall sun all day so this would continue to support some sort of solar induced urban heat island at that location. 

But then we see nights like tonight that make me question UHI.  Its been cloudy all day, raining most of afternoon and evening should be a pretty consistent temp base.  And yes there is, with the PWS, not with KBUF.  The 15 closest stations were all reporting between 45.5 - 46.2 (0.7 degree variance).  That is pretty impressive to have that many stations reporting that close in temp.  KBUF is much warmer in comparison sitting almost 2 full degrees warmer at 48.0.  Glancing at the PWS hourly temps they all have been hovering between 45.5 and 46.5 since 6pm.  KBUF has been hovering at 48 since 6pm.  Somethings just not right...

1029 temps 903pm.png

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9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Rochester reporting heavy rain, little more than 3/4" as of last update (9:54pm)..

WUNIDS_map - 2021-10-29T220833.911.gif

Crazy again!  These training rain bands this fall have been impressive.  Flood warnings will be dropping soon.  One can only hope we will have this same mega abundance of moisture when we have some colder temperatures!  

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7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Big rain totals for Monroe County. Just a deluge. I’ve had to dump out my wheelbarrow twice in the last week. Looks like I’ll be doing it again tomorrow. I’d be surprised if we’re under 2”. 

Same here. MyTempest just blew past 1" with a lot to go.

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Euro still showing some snow even for the some blower elevations.. Forecast has the potential for snow to mix in from Wednesday night through Friday, granted pops at 30%..

NWS mentions light accumulation for the higher elevations..

While
these will initially be in the form of just plain rain...continued
cooling of the column should eventually result in the precip mixing
with and/or changing to snow outright across the higher terrain...
which could in turn result in our first minor accumulations of the
season.

sn10_acc.us_ne - 2021-10-30T094158.517.png

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Swing and a miss as of now..

00z model guidance has trended weaker and further offshore with a
potential coastal low off the East Coast on Friday. Therefore,
trended PoPs down a bit, however trough and lake influences support
low chances Thursday night and Friday.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus - 2021-10-30T101316.158.png

Not a bad place this far out. Euro on it's own though everything else is super squashed.

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It's funny that the disco says all rain for lower elevations but the P&C has potential for snow showers to mix in almost every day lol

Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night
Rain showers likely before 3am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday
Snow showers likely before 9am, then rain and snow showers likely between 9am and 10am, then rain showers likely after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday Night
Rain showers likely before 10pm, then rain and snow showers likely between 10pm and 5am, then snow showers likely after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday
Snow showers likely before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 11am, then a chance of rain showers after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain showers before 11pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

It's funny that the disco says all rain for lower elevations but the P&C has potential for snow showers to mix in almost every day lol

Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night
Rain showers likely before 3am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday
Snow showers likely before 9am, then rain and snow showers likely between 9am and 10am, then rain showers likely after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday Night
Rain showers likely before 10pm, then rain and snow showers likely between 10pm and 5am, then snow showers likely after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday
Snow showers likely before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 11am, then a chance of rain showers after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain showers before 11pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Yeah there will definitely be accumulating snow in the higher elevations this upcoming week. Maybe even LES advs for highest elevations.

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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