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Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021


wdrag
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Have to wonder if the western closed low is pulling in the entire circulation of Henri, which will result in a NW or even WNW track for part of the night and landfall in western LI towards 15z. The heavy rainfall band looks like a boundary between circulations around the two upper lows. It would probably drift very slowly west if there is a capture, then the heavy rain bands of Henri would move into central LI. Eventually the remnant low could drift into the Hudson valley and move into southern Vermont and central NH. 

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks to go further than modeled

No it’s not. Stop. 

1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

Have to wonder if the western closed low is pulling in the entire circulation of Henri, which will result in a NW or even WNW track for part of the night and landfall in western LI towards 15z. The heavy rainfall band looks like a boundary between circulations around the two upper lows. It would probably drift very slowly west if there is a capture, then the heavy rain bands of Henri would move into central LI. Eventually the remnant low could drift into the Hudson valley and move into southern Vermont and central NH. 

No. 

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2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

No.  Your eyes are playing tricks on you. 

Well then it's playing tricks on a lot of people because it seems to be moving nw to me also. 

 

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Convection is blowing up and getting pulled west but the storm is still heading nnw.  Montauk to southern Rhode Island in the crosshairs. 

If you say so. It looks like it slowed down and hasn't made much northward movement. 

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2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

A wobble is far more likely in a tropical storm than a winter storm no doubt. But I’m looking at radar scope and it’s moving due north lol 

It's NNW imo and recon's opinion as well.  Def not nw though like some are alluding to.  

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1 minute ago, Rjay said:

It's NNW imo and recon's opinion as well.  Def not nw though like some are alluding to.  

Might put Long Island back in play. As opposed to some of the eastern models. After what happened with this rain tonight who the hell knows lol

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would anyone like to give me their forecast for CNJ?

we've had some rain that's not extraordinary but it does look like the firehose is shifting WSW into my backyard in Middlesex.

i'm asking you guys because i respect your knowledge and opinion but also the models are clearly struggling, so your nowcasts would be appreciated.

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1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said:

would anyone like to give me their forecast for CNJ?

we've had some rain that's not extraordinary but it does look like the firehose is shifting WSW into my backyard in Middlesex.

i'm asking you guys because i respect your knowledge and opinion but also the models are clearly struggling, so your nowcasts would be appreciated.

Like you said, the models are clearly struggling with this inverted trough.  I have no idea what to expect for your area.  So my advice is to watch the radar and expect some rain lol.  

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As of 12:49 AM this is an excerpt from the NYC local hurricane statement:

 

* STORM INFORMATION:

    - ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITYNY OR ABOUT 180 

      MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT NY

    - 38.6N 71.0W

    - STORM INTENSITY 75 MPH

    - MOVEMENT NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH

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