Central & Eastern Pacific Thread

[TheDreamTraveler]

6 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Absolute nightmare fuel, going to bed expecting a moderate tropical storm and waking up to your home being ripped apart by a cat 5.

1920's level forecasting by the computer models. 

This really was like we went back in time with weather forecasting. This is how these powerful canes used to hit, with barely any warning. I'm really afraid the death toll is going to be very bad especially since this was a city. The use of the term nightmare scenario was 100% warranted here. I can't remember anything that has occurred like this in recent decades.

[Amped]

Tons of damage near Hotel Emporio in the main tourist district in the back center of the bay.

Here's the Princess Hotel East of the city.

 

[Windspeed]

The high rise damage is insane.

[Random Chaos]

Location: https://maps.app.goo.gl/mB82uj4BEokmpnC37?g_st=ic

[dan11295]

Has to be some of the worst high rise damage I have seen from a tropical cyclone

[olafminesaw]

 

 

 

[klw]

20 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

 

 

 

It reminds me of the damage from that massive explosion at the post in Beirut 4 or 5 years ago.

[NorthHillsWx]

Just wow at the videos and pictures coming out of the impact zone. What an intense buzz saw of wind that must’ve been coming through that city 

[Normandy]

There will be studies and papers written about this storm, but the one thing that strikes me with this is the insane amount of damage it produced for being such a small cyclone with such little duration of max winds.  There are a handful of curious cyclones that fit this bill (cyclone Tracy, charley, even Patricia in a weakened state, and to a lesser extent Andrew because it wasn’t micro sized).  I wonder do Mets here think there is a certain increased violence or vorticity with these small cyclones that caused greater wind damage? Maybe I’m off base here, but interesting to think about. 

[Floydbuster]

I think the smaller the radius of maximum sustained winds, the most concentrated the wind gusts are. Not to mention the lower the pressure, you wind up with a steep pressure fall the smaller the eye is.

 

[dan11295]

 

 

[olafminesaw]

 

[olafminesaw]

It does seem like a lot of the construction in residential areas is more concrete/cinder block, as is more typical in Mexico. So hopefully the general population fared better than what we have been seeing.

[Amped]

20 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It does seem like a lot of the construction in residential areas is more concrete/cinder block, as is more typical in Mexico. So hopefully the general population fared better than what we have been seeing.

Depending on the anchor bolts of course.

[wncsnow]

27 confirmed deaths already. Afraid it will only climb from here. 

[NorthHillsWx]

This is some of the most high-end pure wind damage you will ever see. This will be one of the all time wind events for a major city. Speechless looking at the images and video coming out of the impact zone. Most amazing this is how quickly this damage occurred. This wasn’t a long buildup, long duration event. This was 1-2 hours of hell that produced this. Essentially an F3 tornado that tore through a major city. Just wow.

[Random Chaos]

I decided to look at the EF damage scale for high rises for what we are seeing. While we don't have the negative pressure of a tornado (so thus roof damage isn't expected), some of the other damage level categories are likely valid. I am specifically looking at damage level category 8 "Significant damage to curtain walls and interior walls" for 20+ story high rises - some of the videos and pictures that have come out show entire portions of floors appearing wiped clean of walls. The wind range for a tornado to do significant wall damage is lower bound 123 to upper bound 172mph, with the average point that this damage appears at 145mph. Given that the hurricane was estimated 165mph at landfall, this damage level makes sense. Additionally, the high rise is likely to sustain more damage than ground level - winds are stronger 100+ feet above the ground than they are at the surface, and the 165mph was surface winds. We could have seen 185 to 200mph at the tops of some of these buildings.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/19.html

[Tezeta]

10 hours ago, Normandy said:

There will be studies and papers written about this storm, but the one thing that strikes me with this is the insane amount of damage it produced for being such a small cyclone with such little duration of max winds.  There are a handful of curious cyclones that fit this bill (cyclone Tracy, charley, even Patricia in a weakened state, and to a lesser extent Andrew because it wasn’t micro sized).  I wonder do Mets here think there is a certain increased violence or vorticity with these small cyclones that caused greater wind damage? Maybe I’m off base here, but interesting to think about. 

 

9 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

I think the smaller the radius of maximum sustained winds, the most concentrated the wind gusts are. Not to mention the lower the pressure, you wind up with a steep pressure fall the smaller the eye is.

 

This just hit the right spot. I don’t think the winds were special because of its small size, beyond the usual mantra of small storms can wind up quickly. 

[Wmsptwx]

Pics are unreal. Pure cat 5 imo.

[Amped]

Surprised this is fading from the news so quickly. The damage keeps looking worse and worse as pictures come in. 

[Normandy]

Worst wind damage since andrew, and the more that comes out there is a case being made for worst urban wind damage ever produced by a tropical cyclone globally. 

[dan11295]

6 minutes ago, Amped said:

Surprised this is fading from the news so quickly. The damage keeps looking worse and worse as pictures come in. 

Not in U.S., general lack or info and other new big stories are dominating the news cycle.

[Tezeta]

9 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Worst wind damage since andrew, and the more that comes out there is a case being made for worst urban wind damage ever produced by a tropical cyclone globally. 

Depends on how you categorize Tracy. It was urban. And it was wind damage. But the buildings were sticks. These are modern condo buildings and a mall just shredded. 

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

Depends on how you categorize Tracy. It was urban. And it was wind damage. But the buildings were sticks. These are modern condo buildings and a mall just shredded. 

That’s what’s so impressive about this is the type of damage modern well built structures took. Not many examples come to mind especially with the high rise damage. There’s no question those taller structures took 200+ mph gusts to produce what we’re seeing. Think about Laura and lake Charles. That was a cat 4 with gusts to near cat 5 measured in the city and those high rises had mostly window damage. This completely gutted entire floors and any windward facades are just gone. It’s not just one building either, it’s all of them. I don’t even think there’s a remote comparison to this storm given the city it hit

[NorthHillsWx]

If Andrew had hit in 2023…

[Normandy]

The time of duration and Intensity of the damage is still stunning to me, even for a 165 mph strike.  The time of max winds was about two hours, and considering forward motion we are talking about maybe a 10-15 mile wide RMW.  something that small in scale being violent enough to shred a major modern city is stunning.  Perhaps slow movement factored in (other violent canes were moving faster than this).  
 

Unrelated but cyclone Tracy was mentioned.  I will give Otis the nod over Tracy because of obvious primitive construction standards not being able to deal with winds greater than 115 mph on any level.  That being said….I’m still stunned that a 950 mph storm flattened Darwin like that.  It should also be noted all trees and vegetation was stripped.  Steel power poles were also bent over.  Otis and Tracy are very analogous situations though.  Very tiny and violent cyclones that had very short duration periods.  Otis obviously significantly more intense though.

[Amped]

Despite being small you couldn't have asked for a worse track. It dragged along the coast and everywhere between the International Airport and Pie Del la Cuesta got hit by the eyewall, including the tourist district on the west side of the bay. At least that's my guess based on the damage. 

[Tezeta]

13 minutes ago, Amped said:

Despite being small you couldn't have asked for a worse track. It dragged along the coast and everywhere between the International Airport and Pie Del la Cuesta got hit by the eyewall, including the tourist district on the west side of the bay. At least that's my guess based on the damage. 

exactly.  so much depends on track. we have had some crazy storms but nothing this perfectly aligned for destruction.

imagine:

andrew slightly further north

hugo further left of charleston

laura 30 miles west.

michael slightly more west

etc etc

that's what happened here.  one of those scenarios...

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If Andrew had hit in 2023…

Had Andrew been 20 miles further north we likely would see this kind of damage in Miami. It will happen one day, it’s just a matter of when. No building codes exist for 200+mph winds, and debri. 

[olafminesaw]

The first I've seen on the East side of the city. This would be where the surge would have occurred and appears to be significant standing water still.