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July 14 severe potential


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5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

It’s law enforcement confirmed

 

1 minute ago, andyhb said:

Pretty sure that's confirmed...

You mean 8 minutes after he posted this? He said a tornado west of Lake City was going towards town. It didn't touch down until after Lake City. Stupid thing to say it's confirmed when not.

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1 minute ago, MNstorms said:

 

You mean 8 minutes after he posted this? He said a tornado west of Lake City was going towards town. It didn't touch down until after Lake City. Stupid thing to say it's confirmed when not.

Who cares the point is there's a tornado in progress. 

Anyways cell to the east near Stanhope has a cc drop and has a confirmed tornado.

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17 minutes ago, MNstorms said:

You mean 8 minutes after he posted this? He said a tornado west of Lake City was going towards town. It didn't touch down until after Lake City. Stupid thing to say it's confirmed when not.

There literally was a spotter confirming it at the time and a TDS showed up the scan after.

Now have this.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1287
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0542 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

   Areas affected...Eastern IA...Northern IL...Southern WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 142242Z - 142345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing across eastern IA/northwestern
   IL into southern WI. New ww will likely be warranted soon.

   DISCUSSION...Early-day MCS has progressed across the upper Midwest
   with the leading edge now spreading across LE. Considerable
   boundary-layer disruption has been noted across WI/northern IL into
   extreme northeast IA. However, over the last few hours, partial
   clearing across eastern IA has allowed surface temperatures to warm
   into the lower 80s from east of ALO-MXO-CWI-north of C75 in
   Illinois. Further recover appears likely to near the WI/IL border
   over the next few hours. While updrafts may struggle to be truly
   surface-based where temperatures struggle to rise above 75F, there
   is increasing concern/confidence that ongoing supercells over
   central IA will progress east of ww378 into a region that is
   recovering in the wake of earlier convection. Ample shear/buoyancy
   suggest supercells will continue, along with a tornado threat.
   Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase across southern/central WI
   this evening and this should encourage renewed convective
   development. New ww will likely be issued soo

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For those in N IL/Chicago metro, don't expect that complex out west to come rolling through with any interest.

0z DVN sounding is underwhelming to say the least...And mesoanalysis is way overdone.

 

EDIT: Disregard the above. COD having issues per usual these days, and the 0z sounding it showed me was actually from 12z. The environment is hot...carry on.

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23 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

For those in N IL/Chicago metro, don't expect that complex out west to come rolling through with any interest.

0z DVN sounding is underwhelming to say the least...And mesoanalysis is way overdone.

 

EDIT: Disregard the above. COD having issues per usual these days, and the 0z sounding it showed me was actually from 12z. The environment is hot...carry on.

Lol I was about to be like "whaaaaaa". Cedar Rapids might have a problem here shortly with that cell on the southern end.

 

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31 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

For those in N IL/Chicago metro, don't expect that complex out west to come rolling through with any interest.

0z DVN sounding is underwhelming to say the least...And mesoanalysis is way overdone.

 

EDIT: Disregard the above. COD having issues per usual these days, and the 0z sounding it showed me was actually from 12z. The environment is hot...carry on.

Plus I thought the LLJ was also expected to kick in this evening and overnight even though instability should wane.

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2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It appears likely Cedar Rapids is going to get absolutely nothing tonight as storms pass north and south.  Un f'ing believable.  :gun_bandana:

It is hard to believe given how things have looked all night; however, considering (up until tonight) Independence has had the same fate multiple times this year I do believe it.    I'm actually amazed we got what we did this evening.

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