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July 2021 Observations


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56 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

NHC’s 11:00 AM cone shifted just a tad to the west compared to the previous update.  It gives the Triangle area a chance for some rain.  The 12z GFS did move west again, too, but I’ll remain skeptical at this point.

I’d be shocked if the triangle missed out on rain from this system given the track and angle of approach with an approaching trough that usually pulls moisture a bit north as the system interacts with it. Models have really not shown that but from experience that usually happens with tropical systems hitting the gulf coast and moving through our area, and the rain shield almost always ends up further north and west than forecast due to that interaction 

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4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’d be shocked if the triangle missed out on rain from this system given the track and angle of approach with an approaching trough that usually pulls moisture a bit north as the system interacts with it. Models have really not shown that but from experience that usually happens with tropical systems hitting the gulf coast and moving through our area, and the rain shield almost always ends up further north and west than forecast due to that interaction 

The 5:00 PM cone shifted slightly to the west again.

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Lost power twice so far today. Once for about a minute, heard a big bang when that one went out, and once for about 5 minutes. Very windy out there and humid. Sitting at .38" for the day. Looks like we have a few more bands to move thru in the next hour or so.

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I’m both grateful for and underwhelmed by the 0.37” of rain that I received today.  RAH called for about 1.6” here based on the consensus of the modeling for most of yesterday.  Not even close.  This one went wide right…or east in this case.

My July total is now at 3.23” with almost all of that coming on the 1st and 2nd.

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7 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

I’m both grateful for and underwhelmed by the 0.37” of rain that I received today.  RAH called for about 1.6” here based on the consensus of the modeling for most of yesterday.  Not even close.  This one went wide right…or east in this case.

My July total is now at 3.23” with almost all of that coming on the 1st and 2nd.

They did a good job, choosing the east side of guidance. Consensus of the models was for about 2-2.5"

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40 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

I’m both grateful for and underwhelmed by the 0.37” of rain that I received today.  RAH called for about 1.6” here based on the consensus of the modeling for most of yesterday.  Not even close.  This one went wide right…or east in this case.

My July total is now at 3.23” with almost all of that coming on the 1st and 2nd.

You are doing much better than me. I am at .60" for the month. A far cry from last month.

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13 hours ago, Avdave said:

I wouldnt have believed it from the get go. 

I live along the southern escarpment so we often see enhanced orographical uplift in tropical systems, even the flow around ones. 

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