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Central PA - Summer 2021


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7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Another night of close lightning strikes. Impressive storm. Have a buddy near Mountville well over 3”. 

We finally got the rain. 2.43" as I type this. Wind and lightning have pretty much been non-existent, though. Some distant flashes and low rumbles, but that's it 

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2 hours ago, Newman said:

2230z    UNK    4 E HALIFAX    DAUPHIN    PA    MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED. 

That might have been the one storm with the couplet I made a post about earlier back on Page 176 when it was south of Halifax at the time.

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I guess when I said pales I meant we got that in 3 days vs, your one day total.  But I am glad we got our 2".  Anything else was runoff over here.

You did very well and I'm thrilled for you. Regardless of timing in regards to yards and vegetation, this is still water in the ground table. That's a plus. 

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Didn’t have too many major issues locally today, despite having some pretty significant rain totals along and east of I-99. Doppler estimates right over my house are in the 1.5” or so range, which seems about right as I had the first band that triggered the early flash flood warning just to my east only briefly. CTP noted in their disco earlier that KAOO saw over 2” in 40 minutes between that 12-1pm hour. 

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Did some driving in the large area of 3-4” (purple and blue) this afternoon as well as in what ended up being the eventual local bullseye of 4-6” in NW Huntingdon County. Surprisingly I didn’t come across any major flooding issues  or impassable roads, just a lot of washouts and decent run off. It hasn’t been overly dry around here but it also hasn’t been wet either, thus I think the ground and vegetation was able to mitigate what can be a pretty major flash flood event with precip numbers like that in a 6-12 hr span. Both Frankstown and Little Juniata branches of the main stem Juniata River easily stayed below flood stage despite the gauge stations being right in that 3-4”+ area. 

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9 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Just back from dinner out - received 2.01" of rain in 30 minutes, 2.54" for the day, 2.80" of rain since yesterday. No to little wind, some lightning and thunder. Big news here very clearly was the water...that's a lot of rain in 30 minutes. 

I've got to give props to NWS for holding the line on the flood side of the forecasts.  I'll admit that I didnt see that potential showing up on the models (for LSV).  Looking at NAM'rs inside 24 i wasnt seeing it, but yeah...they got that right for sure. 

Little water in garage last evening so I was dong some cleanup.  3rd time in 18 yrs here and other 2 times were impressive rains as well. 

On the severe side, we really didnt have much more than run o da mill thunder and lightening (with very few CTG strikes).  I'll take that part as a win.

That said I took a couple bites outta the crow to keep my word, but that's all.

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1 hour ago, Superstorm said:


That is some impressive rain totals!! Wow.


.

sure is.  Funny thing is I thought Lanco would be on the low side, while most other regions had shown this for a while. 

Wife got a text to go to work a different way.  Roads under water just south of town.  

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2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

I've got to give props to NWS for holding the line on the flood side of the forecasts.  I'll admit that I didnt see that potential showing up on the models (for LSV).  Looking at NAM'rs inside 24 i wasnt seeing it, but yeah...they got that right for sure. 

Little water in garage last evening so I was dong some cleanup.  3rd time in 18 yrs here and other 2 times were impressive rains as well. 

On the severe side, we really didnt have much more than run o da mill thunder and lightening (with very few CTG strikes).  I'll take that part as a win.

That said I took a couple bites outta the crow to keep my word, but that's all.

 

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:


That is some impressive rain totals!! Wow.


.

I thought my area maximized on that line that went through - I only had rain for 30 minutes and got over the 2" mark during that time. The southern half to 2/3rds of the county got into an additional band that came out of Maryland and kept the rain cranking for a few hours, hence the super lofty totals. 

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Looking ahead the GFS has several days in the low to mid 90's through August....Euro has maybe one and CMC has none. 

 

All 3 have East PA seeing outer bands from Henri (or enhanced from) meaning two Tropical related systems affecting PA in one week.  Numerous other almost daily rain chances with tonight and tomorrow AM being one to watch for a shot at a more steady rain as a S/W goes by to the south. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Looking ahead the GFS has several days in the low to mid 90's through August....Euro has maybe one and CMC has none. 

 

All 3 have East PA seeing outer bands from Henri (or enhanced from) meaning two Tropical related systems affecting PA in one week.  Numerous other almost daily rain chances with tomorrow being one to watch for a more steady rain as a S/W goes by to the south. 

Our new normal of a never-ending summer seems to be coming into focus.

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2.0" on the nose for me.  A nice little weather event.  No flooding issues around here but have heard of a few in Lancaster City and of course York City where things were significantly worse.  Lower levels are still quite saturated and I only dropped to a low of 73 last night.  I don't see much in the way of precip the next couple of days outside of some spotty activity. Guess it's time to see if Henri is gonna smack Cape Cod.

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

CFS really kicks the country into early fall Mid Sept with no major heat between now and then.  Just a trend watcher of course as to using the CFS. 

That would be nice. In fairness, the normal high doesn’t drop into the 70s at MDT until the 12th anyway.

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2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

That would be nice. In fairness, the normal high doesn’t drop into the 70s at MDT until the 12th anyway.

Yea, I personally am not calling 70's and low 80's in early Sept anything other than ok.  I really do not expect real fall weather until October.  Just no 90's in Sept and certainly no "heat waves" however one may categorize them.    If the GFS hot days next week are whittled down to match the other two, we may be done with extreme heat....maybe. 

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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I thought my area maximized on that line that went through - I only had rain for 30 minutes and got over the 2" mark during that time. The southern half to 2/3rds of the county got into an additional band that came out of Maryland and kept the rain cranking for a few hours, hence the super lofty totals. 

Was checking around a bit and a number of stations had ten minute periods where they saw .7-.8" of rain, pretty darn impressive. 

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18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, I personally am not calling 70's and low 80's in early Sept anything other than ok.  I really do not expect real fall weather until October.  Just no 90's in Sept and certainly no "heat waves" however one may categorize them.    If the GFS hot days next week are whittled down to match the other two, we may be done with extreme heat....maybe. 

I would say there’s a better than 70% chance that most places in PA have already reached their highest temperature for 2021. But it could still happen.

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13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Was checking around a bit and a number of stations had ten minute periods where they saw .7-.8" of rain, pretty darn impressive. 

Guessing one of them hit my area, as I only get water in when extremely heavy rains pond on back porch.  Thats when the garage springs a leak.  Fortunately we hope to update portch next year and that goes away.

@Itstrainingtimeyes that last band is what really did it (and was what I should call the bubblesband cause he was watching that early yesterday when the HRRR started to hone in.  had that not occurred, Ida felt a bit better w/ my hunch.  All good.  I'm just a hobbyist and eatin crow is part of the game for me/us.

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4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I would say there’s a better than 70% chance that most places in PA have already reached their highest temperature for 2021. But it could still happen.

If I were putting a number on that I would put that at 90-95 percent when using averages, time of the year and models going out into several days into Sept now.    At least for the LSV area.  Most have hit 98-99 this year.   But interesting odd's thought.  MDT's high is 98 in the 3rd hottest June in recorded history.  We can agree its not getting that hot under any circumstances until at least mid next week so take August 24th.   In MDT history it's only gotten above 98 five days past that date so statistically the chance is probably less than 1-2%. 

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