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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2021 OBS Thread


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Another point, anything near an inch tonight will cause flooding again on the Little Lehigh Creek. Why is there no flash flood watch issued?  A radar out of NJ is not the only tool in the tool chest for forecasting possible flooding.  Look at the amount of precip recorded each hourover the last 24 hours on Thursday- Fridays storm at both airports.  What about the USGS digital  stream gauges?  They do exist. A flood advisory should have been issued after 12 hours of continuous rains. Two + inch rains floods creeks. That is a no brainer. Spring Creek Rd was closed all day in Lower Macungie Township from flooding. I guess the Lehigh Valley is not in the Mt. Holly area.  Forecasters  are too worried about discussing potential riptides to mention the two- three inches of rain that fell across the Lehigh Valley/ Quakertown area  on Thursday- Friday in their weather discussion. There is almost a million people that live in that particular forecast area. Priorities need to be reviewed.

Let’s be honest, the mere act of spitting in that creek brings it to flood level. The flooding there is caused by poor regional planning in decades past leading to explosive growth and development in that area… in fact it has been one of the fastest growing areas in PA. The area now looks more like northern NJ or the DC suburbs. The rain was absorbed by the land for thousands of years. Now it runs off pavement and buildings. I am sure it is flooded tonight as well with some banding of heavier showers over that area.
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33 minutes ago, BBasile said:

Yep.  Turned into a big turd here.  

I'm convinced this is not my year for severe weather. I've been getting screwed any way possible. Last year was rather decent so I guess it's Mother natures way of evening things out...

67F 

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5 hours ago, MGorse said:

Ummm, okay. Some of your post is just simply wrong, we care about our entire forecast area. Perhaps reports of flooding were not received at the office. Not to say that this as an excuse (I was not working Friday, so not sure what happened), but our KDIX radar was taken offline starting last Friday for scheduled work on the dome.

MIke, regional favoritism thats all it is.  There are USGS digital gauges that Mt Holly has access too and were never used. Official Flood stages have not been set up at the newer  remote stream gauges In the Trexlertown area but I set my own flooding electronic notification thresholds up myself because my property borders the streams and I visually know the exact  depth in which the streams comes out of their  banks.  If I can do this, so can Mt Holly/USGS.  I did this  when we had the record flooding on the Little Lehigh last August when the  Lower Macungie Township municipal building actually was severely flooded and closed for a several months as the result of this historic  flooding event.  That flooding event was worse than Agnes or Floyd and that is saying a lot. The FEMA floodplain lines were violated by this event as well for the mapped 100 year storm event. 

All I am saying is the LV deserves much more attention by the regional forecasters in the regional discussion as almost a million people live in this MSMA area and well over 300,000 people in the Little Lehigh Watershed alone. Physical structural flooding damage in our area is not as predominate as in others in the MT Holly region as the Little Lehigh Creek has strict floodplain regulations( strictest in the state) and stormwater regulations for structures(again the strictest in the state) and structural damage is usually limited to open areas and road closures. However, flooding occurs constantly.  Mt. Holly cannot rely just on structural damage reports but also  rely on stream gauges. and precip hourly events. That is why USGS  set up digital/internet telemetry gauging stations in my backyard as this area floods way before the city of Allentown's Little Lehigh Creek gauges do since these new gauges are also located further upstream in the watershed and have digital rain gauges. 

 

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3 hours ago, LVLion77 said:


Let’s be honest, the mere act of spitting in that creek brings it to flood level. The flooding there is caused by poor regional planning in decades past leading to explosive growth and development in that area… in fact it has been one of the fastest growing areas in PA. The area now looks more like northern NJ or the DC suburbs. The rain was absorbed by the land for thousands of years. Now it runs off pavement and buildings. I am sure it is flooded tonight as well with some banding of heavier showers over that area.

Volume/rate  control of stormwater plays an important part. The Little Lehigh Creek watershed was the first stream in PA to have these modern model stormwater ordinances (1982)  and was used as a basis for all others municipalities/counties in the state to implement. I know because I was personally involved on the Little Lehigh and its tributaries stormwater boards.  The flooding of this stream is far worse than the Neshaminy Creek in Bucks County  but gets  very little attention by Mt. Holly/media because there are very few physical structures actually entirely contained within the actual 100 year floodplain of the Little Lehigh Creek --33 miles worth of stream going into Berks County. I could probably count less than 50  structures in the actual 100 year floodplain and my house  is one of them going all the way to the Lehigh River. Allentown residents/commercial structures are not in the actual 100 year floodplain  as the Little Lehigh Creek is contained in a greenway park that was donated by General Trexler to be preserved forever, one of the largest in the entire country. The only structures in the actual floodplain are the water treatment plant near the main stem of the creek in the middle reach of the stream and the sewage treatment plant at the Lehigh River, the way it should be for any municipality when proper planning takes place. Those facilities are well protected by structural walls for flooding events too. 

 

But you are indeed correct,  the Little Lehigh creek and its tributaries flood  constantly on the slightest heavy rainfall event. The current flooding problem is however is not just from over development. The main problem is that the historical cement quarries/iron mines in Fogelsville area closed up in the late 80's and pumping of the Little Lehigh Creek groundwater for dewatering these quarries  ceased. The natural spring flow came back to the Little Lehigh Creek and its tributaries after about 10-15 years (1996 with the great January snow melt event) and so did the natural flooding , way before any  new more land development could take place. The new stormwater/ floodplain regulations are working, its just nature taking over what man screwed with over 100 years ago when they mined this area.

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Volume/rate  control of stormwater plays an important part. The Little Lehigh Creek watershed was the first stream in PA to have these modern model stormwater ordinances (1982)  and was used as a basis for all others municipalities/counties in the state to implement. I know because I was personally involved on the Little Lehigh and its tributaries stormwater boards.  The flooding of this stream is far worse than the Neshaminy Creek in Bucks County  but gets  very little attention by Mt. Holly/media because there are very few physical structures actually entirely contained within the actual 100 year floodplain of the Little Lehigh Creek --33 miles worth of stream going into Berks County. I could probably count less than 50  structures in the actual 100 year floodplain and my house  is one of them going all the way to the Lehigh River. Allentown residents/commercial structures are not in the actual 100 year floodplain  as the Little Lehigh Creek is contained in a greenway park that was donated by General Trexler to be preserved forever, one of the largest in the entire country. The only structures in the actual floodplain are the water treatment plant near the main stem of the creek in the middle reach of the stream and the sewage treatment plant at the Lehigh River, the way it should be for any municipality when proper planning takes place. Those facilities are well protected by structural walls for flooding events too. 
 
But you are indeed correct,  the Little Lehigh creek and its tributaries flood  constantly on the slightest heavy rainfall event. The current flooding problem is however is not just from over development. The main problem is that the historical cement quarries/iron mines in Fogelsville area closed up in the late 80's and pumping of the Little Lehigh Creek groundwater for dewatering these quarries  ceased. The natural spring flow came back to the Little Lehigh Creek and its tributaries after about 10-15 years (1996 with the great January snow melt event) and so did the natural flooding , way before any  new more land development could take place. The new stormwater/ floodplain regulations are working, its just nature taking over what man screwed with over 100 years ago when they mined this area.

Very interesting history. Thank you. I always assumed the flooding was from runoff from overdevelopment. Lower Macungie was the fastest growing township in PA in the last census, Upper Macungie is now seeing that extreme population growth. And both townships have a huge manufacturing and warehouse footprint. What was farmland is now surburbia. Any truth to the rumor that Jandl offered to dredge the creek some time ago and was scared off by liability concerns?
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13 hours ago, Albedoman said:

MIke, regional favoritism thats all it is.  There are USGS digital gauges that Mt Holly has access too and were never used. Official Flood stages have not been set up at the newer  remote stream gauges In the Trexlertown area but I set my own flooding electronic notification thresholds up myself because my property borders the streams and I visually know the exact  depth in which the streams comes out of their  banks.  If I can do this, so can Mt Holly/USGS.  I did this  when we had the record flooding on the Little Lehigh last August when the  Lower Macungie Township municipal building actually was severely flooded and closed for a several months as the result of this historic  flooding event.  That flooding event was worse than Agnes or Floyd and that is saying a lot. The FEMA floodplain lines were violated by this event as well for the mapped 100 year storm event. 

All I am saying is the LV deserves much more attention by the regional forecasters in the regional discussion as almost a million people live in this MSMA area and well over 300,000 people in the Little Lehigh Watershed alone. Physical structural flooding damage in our area is not as predominate as in others in the MT Holly region as the Little Lehigh Creek has strict floodplain regulations( strictest in the state) and stormwater regulations for structures(again the strictest in the state) and structural damage is usually limited to open areas and road closures. However, flooding occurs constantly.  Mt. Holly cannot rely just on structural damage reports but also  rely on stream gauges. and precip hourly events. That is why USGS  set up digital/internet telemetry gauging stations in my backyard as this area floods way before the city of Allentown's Little Lehigh Creek gauges do since these new gauges are also located further upstream in the watershed and have digital rain gauges. 

 

You seem to know how NWS Mount Holly operates, which you are just making assumptions. We are certainly aware of the USGS gauges as they are a partner of the NWS. The two gauges on the Little Lehigh are not forecast points, meaning there are no actual forecasts issued for them. Not sure what else to tell you, other than voicing your concerns directly to NWS Mount Holly via email or a phone call instead of ranting about it here on a weather board. Can you pass along regarding what happened up there last Thursday-Friday? Feel free to PM me.

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9 hours ago, LVLion77 said:


Very interesting history. Thank you. I always assumed the flooding was from runoff from overdevelopment. Lower Macungie was the fastest growing township in PA in the last census, Upper Macungie is now seeing that extreme population growth. And both townships have a huge manufacturing and warehouse footprint. What was farmland is now surburbia. Any truth to the rumor that Jandl offered to dredge the creek some time ago and was scared off by liability concerns?

No Jaindl was not scared off. The Army Corps of Engineers and PADEP refused to permit him to dredge the creek. The Little Lehigh Creek does not need dredging. There are numerous debris dams blocking the channel along with a few beaver dams as a result of the 2018 tornadoes/straight line wind tree/feled tree damage. There are hundreds of dead ash trees ready to fall soon as well.

 

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14 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Volume/rate  control of stormwater plays an important part. The Little Lehigh Creek watershed was the first stream in PA to have these modern model stormwater ordinances (1982)  and was used as a basis for all others municipalities/counties in the state to implement. I know because I was personally involved on the Little Lehigh and its tributaries stormwater boards.  The flooding of this stream is far worse than the Neshaminy Creek in Bucks County  but gets  very little attention by Mt. Holly/media because there are very few physical structures actually entirely contained within the actual 100 year floodplain of the Little Lehigh Creek --33 miles worth of stream going into Berks County. I could probably count less than 50  structures in the actual 100 year floodplain and my house  is one of them going all the way to the Lehigh River. Allentown residents/commercial structures are not in the actual 100 year floodplain  as the Little Lehigh Creek is contained in a greenway park that was donated by General Trexler to be preserved forever, one of the largest in the entire country. The only structures in the actual floodplain are the water treatment plant near the main stem of the creek in the middle reach of the stream and the sewage treatment plant at the Lehigh River, the way it should be for any municipality when proper planning takes place. Those facilities are well protected by structural walls for flooding events too. 

 

But you are indeed correct,  the Little Lehigh creek and its tributaries flood  constantly on the slightest heavy rainfall event. The current flooding problem is however is not just from over development. The main problem is that the historical cement quarries/iron mines in Fogelsville area closed up in the late 80's and pumping of the Little Lehigh Creek groundwater for dewatering these quarries  ceased. The natural spring flow came back to the Little Lehigh Creek and its tributaries after about 10-15 years (1996 with the great January snow melt event) and so did the natural flooding , way before any  new more land development could take place. The new stormwater/ floodplain regulations are working, its just nature taking over what man screwed with over 100 years ago when they mined this area.

Thats very interesting it sounds like the mines/quarries should be part of a dam control system that is forced to pump when these rainfall events occur. Blue marsh dam was put in place to chorale the Tulpie's flooding. 

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1 hour ago, MGorse said:

You seem to know how NWS Mount Holly operates, which you are just making assumptions. We are certainly aware of the USGS gauges as they are a partner of the NWS. The two gauges on the Little Lehigh are not forecast points, meaning there are no actual forecasts issued for them. Not sure what else to tell you, other than voicing your concerns directly to NWS Mount Holly via email or a phone call instead of ranting about it here on a weather board. Can you pass along regarding what happened up there last Thursday-Friday? Feel free to PM me.

 

14 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Volume/rate  control of stormwater plays an important part. The Little Lehigh Creek watershed was the first stream in PA to have these modern model stormwater ordinances (1982)  and was used as a basis for all others municipalities/counties in the state to implement. I know because I was personally involved on the Little Lehigh and its tributaries stormwater boards.  The flooding of this stream is far worse than the Neshaminy Creek in Bucks County  but gets  very little attention by Mt. Holly/media because there are very few physical structures actually entirely contained within the actual 100 year floodplain of the Little Lehigh Creek --33 miles worth of stream going into Berks County. I could probably count less than 50  structures in the actual 100 year floodplain and my house  is one of them going all the way to the Lehigh River. Allentown residents/commercial structures are not in the actual 100 year floodplain  as the Little Lehigh Creek is contained in a greenway park that was donated by General Trexler to be preserved forever, one of the largest in the entire country. The only structures in the actual floodplain are the water treatment plant near the main stem of the creek in the middle reach of the stream and the sewage treatment plant at the Lehigh River, the way it should be for any municipality when proper planning takes place. Those facilities are well protected by structural walls for flooding events too. 

 

But you are indeed correct,  the Little Lehigh creek and its tributaries flood  constantly on the slightest heavy rainfall event. The current flooding problem is however is not just from over development. The main problem is that the historical cement quarries/iron mines in Fogelsville area closed up in the late 80's and pumping of the Little Lehigh Creek groundwater for dewatering these quarries  ceased. The natural spring flow came back to the Little Lehigh Creek and its tributaries after about 10-15 years (1996 with the great January snow melt event) and so did the natural flooding , way before any  new more land development could take place. The new stormwater/ floodplain regulations are working, its just nature taking over what man screwed with over 100 years ago when they mined this area.

While a bit pointed, I think Albedoman makes some good points. 

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7 hours ago, RedSky said:

I love how the article says "snow is considered rare this time of year". "Rare" but not "unheard of"...lol!  Maybe I'll retire to Iceland. How difficult could it be to pick up the language??

67F/DP 53F...beautiful sleeping weather last night.

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3 hours ago, JTA66 said:

I love how the article says "snow is considered rare this time of year". "Rare" but not "unheard of"...lol!  Maybe I'll retire to Iceland. How difficult could it be to pick up the language??

67F/DP 53F...beautiful sleeping weather last night.

As I understand it, Iceland was the more temperate area and Greenland (of "Greenland Block" fame) is actually the ice kingdom, with the glaciers and permafrost!

greenlandblock.jpg

I had a former co-worker who had been in the Navy during the '60s and he (and his wife) had been stationed at a base in Iceland (now closed) for a few years.  He said the weather was pretty moderate (more like a typical Northern U.S. climate).

As an obs - my low of 60 this morning was refreshing, and after a brief spike to 77 earlier, I'm currently at 74 (dp 54) and mostly cloudy, once lots of cumulus arrived and blocked the sun.  Was able to turn the air off yesterday and today so far.

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Beauty of a day both down the shore in Sea Isle City where the sea breeze battled the synoptic wind with the temp varying 10 degrees over the afternoon hours depending on the wind direction but temps at the beach did peak at 78.6 during one of the late PM land breeze time frames....while back in NW Chesco in East Nantmeal we saw our 5th of the last 6 days with below normal temps with our splits of 74.3/57.9

Backyard.20210616_212619703.jpg

SicHi.20210616_212607294.jpg

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21 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

As I understand it, Iceland was the more temperate area and Greenland (of "Greenland Block" fame) is actually the ice kingdom, with the glaciers and permafrost!

greenlandblock.jpg

I had a former co-worker who had been in the Navy during the '60s and he (and his wife) had been stationed at a base in Iceland (now closed) for a few years.  He said the weather was pretty moderate (more like a typical Northern U.S. climate).

As an obs - my low of 60 this morning was refreshing, and after a brief spike to 77 earlier, I'm currently at 74 (dp 54) and mostly cloudy, once lots of cumulus arrived and blocked the sun.  Was able to turn the air off yesterday and today so far.

As Ji would say, that map is meteorologically impossible.

Another night of great sleeping weather, 67F/DP 45F.

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5 hours ago, JTA66 said:

As Ji would say, that map is meteorologically impossible.

Another night of great sleeping weather, 67F/DP 45F.

I expect many believe that anything Ji says is meteorologically  impossible. :lol:

Had an unexpected low of 53 this morning (if it hadn't been a bit breezy then it might have decoupled).  Am currently at my high (so far) today of 77 with dp an amazing 46 and not a cloud in the sky.

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29 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The chances for above normal June slip each day. If the GFS long range has a clue we will slip below normal and that would be an unprecedented back to back months missing on above normal calls. 

 

We may fry a bit this weekend (not overly) but things become normal/below normal early next week moving forward. These low DPs and a breeze lately are great. Windows open at night and chill out. Great sleeping weather...

63F

 

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Had a slightly warmer low this morning than yesterday (56) but still off to a good, although warmer start this morning.  Currently sunny and 77 with dp 57, and slowly creeping up.  Supposed to start heating up a bit for the next couple days so getting the last of the open door (with screen) and open windows before I throw the air back on again.

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