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Severe Weather May 26th- 28th 2021


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The last few HRRR runs show an interesting trend for tonight. It shows an intense MCS develop and move across much of Nebraska, yet little to no convection across Kansas. With this scenario, a 45% hatched wind probability could easily verify in Nebraska, but the 15% hatched tornado probability would be a bust with minimal storm development in the area. We'll see how it pans out, but something to be wary of, especially for those chasing in Kansas.

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Just now, OhioWX said:

The last few HRRR runs show an interesting trend for tonight. It shows an intense MCS develop and move across much of Nebraska, yet little to no convection across Kansas. With this scenario, a 45% hatched wind probability could easily verify in Nebraska, but the 15% hatched tornado probability would be a bust with minimal storm development in the area. We'll see how it pans out, but something to be wary of, especially for those chasing in Kansas.

I had noticed this as well as I live in far northern Kansas. Running the NAM Nest and HRRR through the morning there is about a 50/50 split in my area for a sigtor or 0 precip. at all in all of the runs. It will definitely be interesting to see how this plays out as it seems each model is different run to run. 

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Pretty much all other CAMs show convective initiation though... We've seen multiple times where the HRRR backs off on initiating during the late morning on the day of only to just be wrong and in disagreement with the other models. Of course, storms aren't guaranteed either, but I'm just saying that this kind of situation is not too unusual for the HRRR.

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5 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Pretty much all other CAMs show convective initiation though... We've seen multiple times where the HRRR backs off on initiating during the late morning on the day of only to just be wrong and in disagreement with the other models. Of course, storms aren't guaranteed either, but I'm just saying that this kind of situation is not too unusual for the HRRR.

And the run coming out now (16Z) has quite a few cells across KS later. 

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36 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Pretty much all other CAMs show convective initiation though... We've seen multiple times where the HRRR backs off on initiating during the late morning on the day of only to just be wrong and in disagreement with the other models. Of course, storms aren't guaranteed either, but I'm just saying that this kind of situation is not too unusual for the HRRR.

Even several HRRR ensemble members show earlier CI

 

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Hard to imagine there won't be at least widely scattered development down the dryline in western KS by early evening, given how weak the cap is. 

The storm currently west of Hays looks like it is near the effective warm front and probably becoming surface based. Low-level flow is still weak, but it might have a chance to do something given the large CAPE and its location near the boundary.  

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4 minutes ago, MUWX said:

DDC says that it is still well north or the boundary 

It may have started north of the boundary, but based on surface obs, satellite, and its southeastward motion, it is very near the boundary now or is about to be. The boundary is pretty diffuse anyway, so it isn't easy to pinpoint a location and call that the boundary. I doubt the cell would be propagating southeastward like it is if it wasn't surface based. 

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Someone who is a little smarter than me may be able to answer this. SPC mentioned in an earlier outlook about afternoon convection overturning the atmosphere that might lower the severe threat a bit later on. Is that valid for where the storms are occurring now or is there still plenty of time for the atmosphere to recharge?

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8 minutes ago, TheSuckZone said:

Someone who is a little smarter than me may be able to answer this. SPC mentioned in an earlier outlook about afternoon convection overturning the atmosphere that might lower the severe threat a bit later on. Is that valid for where the storms are occurring now or is there still plenty of time for the atmosphere to recharge?

Most of the moderate risk area is probably not going to be affected by the ongoing storms. Areas immediately to the north and east of the ongoing complex might have the threat reduced due to disrupted storm inflow, though. 

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