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Central PA - Spring 2021


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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Mesoanalysis is showing a wave of low pressure it appears . Maybe that will enhance things a bit but probably south of the M/D line be my guess..towards Baltimore- DC 

Yes, SPC missed today up here. I can’t read ,all well enough to see what prevented instability - cape numbers were great, wave was timed well, etc 

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10 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yes, SPC missed today up here. I can’t read ,all well enough to see what prevented instability - cape numbers were great, wave was timed well, etc 

Best parameters atm are near i95 but with added energy from that wave places like mby nw of the cities could still see some moderate to heavy showers next couple hours.  

 

The dews haven't been inspiring at around 60 all day . 

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4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

But re: the GFS, the “for entertainment purposes only” portion of the 0z run does bring a heat wave into PA.

The 6Z was just so "anti heat wave" though.  Jns2183 said no 90 through June 29th and its actually no 80 as to graphics. .  MDT does not hit 80 once on the 18Z maps.  Would surely creep into the low 80's a couple days later but fairly amazing not seeing one 80 for two weeks. 

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11 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Picked up .08" here from a brief shower.

I matched ya, eight hundredths here as well.

 

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Beautiful 57 out this AM.   Unfortunate we did not get the heavier rain yesterday as a dry spell looks to be upon us. Maybe a few lucky souls today. 

Yeah not much of anything substantial in the forecast, except of course possibly Saturday which is the day of our annual summer party ugh, but even that doesn't look like like anything more than scattered.

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

The 6Z was just so "anti heat wave" though.  Jns2183 said no 90 through June 29th and its actually no 80 as to graphics. .  MDT does not hit 80 once on the 18Z maps.  Would surely creep into the low 80's a couple days later but fairly amazing not seeing one 80 for two weeks. 

I like that idea, and quite honestly about 3 of the 4 GFS runs every day have that cooler long term, so there’s more support for that.

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9 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I like that idea, and quite honestly about 3 of the 4 GFS runs every day have that cooler long term, so there’s more support for that.

Only catch is that it potentially would be dry just due to the nature of the situation.  Low DP's mean less chance of afternoon convection so relying upon frontal rains 

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37 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Only catch is that it potentially would be dry just due to the nature of the situation.  Low DP's mean less chance of afternoon convection so relying upon frontal rains 

Funny thing is the run with the heat wave actually has less precip. (Including a min of 0.3” for the entire run at Altoona.)

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Funny thing is the run with the heat wave actually has less precip. (Including a min of 0.3” for the entire run at Altoona.)

NO doubt a heat wave does not mean precip but we know low DP's will certainly limit it.   Maybe the TS possibility makes it moot. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

NO doubt a heat wave does not mean precip but we know low DP's will certainly limit it.   Maybe the TS possibility makes it moot. 

If it plays out like the last heat wave and areas on the fringes of it get the pop up storms (we did well enough out here last week that we’re actually back to normal for the month for the time being), then it’s promising.

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I leave for Texas tomorrow. Let's check out the local forecast ...

Wednesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 103. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 76. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Thursday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the morning.

Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 76. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday
Sunny, with a high near 97. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 73. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 97. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 74.

Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 97.

Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 77.

Monday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 97.

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6 minutes ago, canderson said:

I leave for Texas tomorrow. Let's check out the local forecast ...

Wednesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 103. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 76. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Thursday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the morning.

Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 76. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday
Sunny, with a high near 97. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 73. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 97. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 74.

Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 97.

Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 77.

Monday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 97.

You're so, so lucky. 

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8 minutes ago, canderson said:

I leave for Texas tomorrow. Let's check out the local forecast ...

Wednesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 103. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 76. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Thursday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the morning.

Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 76. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday
Sunny, with a high near 97. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 73. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 97. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 74.

Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 97.

Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 77.

Monday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 97.

Easy to pack.

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