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Central PA - Spring 2021


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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z GFS is much cooler for Independence weekend.   Fantasy land model wise but a significant change at 500MB for early in the weekend. 

As long as the good stuff keeps showing up on the models, I have hope.

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4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z GFS is much cooler for Independence weekend.   Fantasy land model wise but a significant change at 500MB for early in the weekend. 

4 hours ago, TimB84 said:

As long as the good stuff keeps showing up on the models, I have hope.

 

C'mon guys, the 4th is supposed to be hot, just like Christmas is supposed to be cold. And I know, this past Christmas Eve was warmish, but...it came with an all day rain.

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10 minutes ago, Voyager said:

 

C'mon guys, the 4th is supposed to be hot, just like Christmas is supposed to be cold. And I know, this past Christmas Eve was warmish, but...it came with an all day rain.

Not wishing anything just reading models.  24 hours ago the 4th was going to be blazing hot and then all of a sudden it is not.  I actually hope the 4th is warm and sunny.  80's and low humidity. 

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35 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not wishing anything just reading models.  24 hours ago the 4th was going to be blazing hot and then all of a sudden it is not.  I actually hope the 4th is warm and sunny.  80's and low humidity. 

I'll take that!

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2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

@Bubbler86did you see the 6z GFS’s take on the 4th of July? Won’t post because it’s both fantasy land and blasphemy.

I did and I did not post out of respect for the others so same vein of thought in your blasphemy comment.   I would put it on the scale of seeing a 384 hour MECS.  

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I did and I did not post out of respect for the others so same vein of thought in your blasphemy comment.   I would put it on the scale of seeing a 340 hour MECS.  

I’m also in the camp of wanting a pleasantly warm 4th of July. Somewhere around 80 w/o humidity would be ideal. That said, 70 would be preferable to 90, and 60 would be preferable to 100.

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Just now, TimB84 said:

I’m also in the camp of wanting a pleasantly warm 4th of July. Somewhere around 80 w/o humidity would be ideal. That said, 70 would be preferable to 90, and 60 would be preferable to 100.

One thing about this year is some people may be celebrating on Monday.  But yes that depiction is definitely not a preference of me either.   Midnight high.

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

One thing about this year is some people may be celebrating on Monday.  But yes that depiction is definitely not a preference of me either.   Midnight high.

Fortunately we get about 60 model runs for that to change, and we know for at least the next 5 or 6 days each run of the GFS will alternate between that scenario and a massive heat wave and everything in between.

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A couple days ago it was leading up to a July 4th firecracker of a heat wave. 

GFS is Exhibit A when it comes to illustrating the practical limits on how far out you can realistically model/forecast. Of course, now we have the GEFS ensemble that goes to 840 hours instead of 384. Wonder what the accuracy of that thing is at day 35.

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Just now, TimB84 said:

GFS is Exhibit A when it comes to illustrating the practical limits on how far out you can realistically model/forecast. Of course, now we have the GEFS ensemble that goes to 840 hours instead of 384. Wonder what the accuracy of that thing is at day 35.

I think the MA LR Thread is Exhibit 1A on that. 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It is ironic since that thread used to be all about coldmeisters.  The break from Covid really changed the make up down there.   

Unapologetic card-carrying coldmeister here (obviously). Be interesting to see if that changes as I get older.

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