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Severe Weather 3/12-3/15

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

 

Well given that storm mode is significantly less discrete than it was earlier may not see like we did earlier with that storm. Not saying significant tornadoes can't happen in the moderate risk. Just seems like now the supercells are merging largely. But will likely still see spin ups given the shear. Could be more QLCS related though. We shall see. 

Its an outlook, nobody cares . What happens is happening. 

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4 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Its an outlook, nobody cares . What happens is happening. 

People get butthurt really easily in this forum. Lol. Was simply voicing my opinion and observations. Idc what the outlook is. I look at the meteorology not the SPC outlook. But was stating where the significant tornado happened earlier on was on the edge or possibly outside the 15 hatched but doesn't really matter. Just an observation. Calm down everyone. Lol

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Also had a close call on a muddy road. Managed to wiggle out. Could have been a much worse situation. It was a 3 mile bypass thanks to Google Maps. Started paved, otherwise I wouldn’t have taken it. Had to continue or I would have been destroyed by hail. Not one of my finer chase moments  

Tornado from earlier:

 

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1 minute ago, Quincy said:

Also had a close call on a muddy road. Managed to wiggle out. Could have been a much worse situation. It was a 3 mile bypass thanks to Google Maps. Started paved, otherwise I wouldn’t have taken it. Had to continue or I would have been destroyed by hail. Not one of my finer chase moments  

Tornado from earlier:

 

Nice catch man! 

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10 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Circulation right over Clarendon, TX

They just got incredibly lucky. 

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1 minute ago, MUWX said:

They just got incredibly lucky. 

Made a hard left so I thought the entire circulation would be occluding, but then it's just wrapped up a ton south of Howardwick

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4 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Made a hard left so I thought the entire circulation would be occluding, but then it's just wrapped up a ton south of Howardwick

Clarendon may not be out of the woods yet. 

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Core punched the Paducah storm. A lot of hail, but mostly sub severe. Followed it closely from behind for over a half hour and never saw anything conclusive. Just a raggedy, low cloud base. 

Looks like the severe threat with this event is ramping down. Quite a few rain-wrapped tornadoes, that I had no business getting close to. 

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Outside the Happy, TX storm today wasn't overly eventful from a tornado standpoint. I think that storm having more deviant motion off the front really enhanced its tornado potential. Other storms large paralleled the boundary and inflows were consistently getting contaminated by the next storm down the line. I think slower movement of cutoff low which isn't surprising lead to the flow paralleling the boundary instead of it being more orthogonal to it. Storms really struggled to get east off it into open warm sector. The best instability ended up setting up west where cirrus thinned sooner. Low level lapse rates and sfc based cape were not overly impressive in the eastern panhandle. Not a bad chase day for March but hopefully this season we can see some quality warm sector storms that aren't an HP mess in the Plains. Definitely a tricky chase today. Lots of storms to choose from. 

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12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Outside the Happy, TX storm today wasn't overly eventful from a tornado standpoint. I think that storm having more deviant motion off the front really enhanced its tornado potential. Other storms large paralleled the boundary and inflows were consistently getting contaminated by the next storm down the line. I think slower movement of cutoff low which isn't surprising lead to the flow paralleling the boundary instead of it being more orthogonal to it. Storms really struggled to get east off it into open warm sector. The best instability ended up setting up west where cirrus thinned sooner. Low level lapse rates and sfc based cape were not overly impressive in the eastern panhandle. Not a bad chase day for March but hopefully this season we can see some quality warm sector storms that aren't an HP mess in the Plains. Definitely a tricky chase today. Lots of storms to choose from. 

There was a storm with maxed out rotation today.  Today rivaled many high risk days including  April 27 2014 ... its just the area is not populated .

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Just now, wizard021 said:

There was a storm with maxed out rotation today.  Today rivaled many high risk days including  April 27 2014 ... its just the area is not populated .

Definitely did not rival a high risk day. Yes that storm was very impressive but that was the only truly cyclic beast of the day. Yes there were other tornadoes but were relatively short lived and not long tracked. 

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Definitely did not rival a high risk day. Yes that storm was very impressive but that was the only truly cyclic beast of the day. Yes there were other tornadoes but were relatively short lived and not long tracked. 

April 27 2014 also had only 1 long tracker .   The instability area was limited so many areas east were not going to get impacted.  

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Yeah I chased that day and the high risk the next day which was a much more significant outbreak with multiple long track strong to violent tornadoes. It's a good thing that storm today stayed away from major population areas. That would have been a catastrophe. 

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00z NAM coming in hot for WEDS to say the least

could start late Tuesday night even  OK/MO/AR

a cold bowling ball at 500mb moving into the warm sector results in  MLCAPE >2000 overnight with little CIN

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The DDC flukey tor appeared to happen near the warm front/low intersection. It seems like we get at least 1-2 events a year where the main focus is over TX/OK and a seemingly random tornado spins off near Dodge City...

 

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With a couple of landspout reports in NW KS/SW NE today, makes for a nice 3-day event. Pretty sure we exceed 15 tornadoes/landspouts for this 3-day period, and yesterday might have exceeded 10 tornadoes.

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I have to say HRRR did a fantastic job with Saturday. From its guidance going all the way back to the day before, I had targeted an area between Clarendon and Groom, TX. And of course the towns are indeed mentioned in the storm report. The tornadoes even appeared to have crossed at areas where I had actually parked that day. (most notably Washburn, the west side of Clarendon, and Greenbelt Reservoir)

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