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stormtracker

February 18/19th Storm Potential

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3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

No one really cares about your “imby” approval.

To be honest I would post the same if I was actually getting something for once. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

With the exception of the PARA, every single model of the 00Z suite so far has moved closer to consensus. 

Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 11.57.07 PM.png

Do you use Kuchera or 10:1 for these?  This might be a tough storm to assess because of all the sleet built into the snow totals.  

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Just now, jaydreb said:

Do you use Kuchera or 10:1 for these?  This might be a tough storm to assess because of all the sleet built into the snow totals.  

It is tough for some, yeah. These are all Kuchera (WxBell) when available, 10:1 when not. Sleet is not included, and if it were, the NAMs would be considerably higher. 

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4 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

No but it has 6 hour QPF maps

Yeah just hard to piece together what's going on. Still learning to read soundings...at least it's all frozen lol?

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Just now, ForestHillbilly said:

I hate to say it, but the data at my office is not favorable for us...especially the NOVA or DC area. Montgomery county still has a chance.

You are trying too hard.  Dial it back a bit.

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3 minutes ago, ForestHillbilly said:

You can delete my post or ridicule me. But we have seen this before. This set up is ready to let us down. I hope not, but the models do not favor us.

But the situation does favor us.  High in the right place, western low some problem but not strong nor too far north, then coastal and by now it’s a drawn out event thru Friday. Highs 25-30 

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1 minute ago, ForestHillbilly said:

I hate to say it, but the data at my office is not favorable for us...especially the NOVA or DC area. Montgomery county still has a chance.

Your post history is not favorable to you. 

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Just now, WEATHER53 said:

But the situation does favor us.  High in the right place, western low some problem but not strong nor too far north, then coastal and by now it’s a drawn out event thru Friday. Highs 25-30 

H***wd.  He's a troll.  Don't waste your time buddy. 

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This is my first hypothesis at a theory that might evolve into a guess of a future forecast.   Any resemblance to other forecasts, living or dead, is completely coincidental.  

1stGuess.thumb.png.58a90bd13c2c5199def277f2ebcb3947.png

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

How come africa dosent have a model?

It's a big hot desert, water bottle and sunscreen all you need

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This is my first hypothesis at a theory that might evolve into a guess of a future forecast.   Any resemblance to other forecasts, living or dead, is completely coincidental.  

1stGuess.thumb.png.58a90bd13c2c5199def277f2ebcb3947.png

How’s the confidence meter?

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It's a big hot desert, water bottle and sunscreen all you need
They get all kinds of weird weather. I watch alot of amazing planet lol

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is my first hypothesis at a theory that might evolve into a guess of a future forecast.   Any resemblance to other forecasts, living or dead, is completely coincidental.  

1stGuess.thumb.png.58a90bd13c2c5199def277f2ebcb3947.png

What is your forecast in regards to ice? I'm just under your 4-8" area in Baltimore County by the bay.. I have a feeling a good amount of freezing rain will show itself around here

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is my first hypothesis at a theory that might evolve into a guess of a future forecast.   Any resemblance to other forecasts, living or dead, is completely coincidental.  

1stGuess.thumb.png.58a90bd13c2c5199def277f2ebcb3947.png

Postmodern weather at its finest

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:
10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:
How’s the confidence meter?

Depends on Pittsburgh and Boston

It’s better this time. 30 in Pittsburgh and 19 in Boston is  shit for DC. 

Other  way around just fine 

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23 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

How’s the confidence meter?

I am 100% confident that map will be wrong.  The question is HOW wrong.  

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38 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

That was the RGEM, had 30 plus inches for baltimore 2 or 3 runs in a row lol.

GGEM and RGEM are doing some strange shit with the 2nd wave. Highly doubt we get two rounds of snow with a 30hr break in the middle.

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21 minutes ago, ILIKERAKE said:

What is your forecast in regards to ice? I'm just under your 4-8" area in Baltimore County by the bay.. I have a feeling a good amount of freezing rain will show itself around here

There will be significant ice in the 1-3 and 3-6" zones.  I think freezing rain will be a major problem just to the south of the 1-3" zone and through the 1-3" zone after it flips.  I think it will be mostly sleet in the 3-6" zone with some freezing rain mostly during periods of light precipitation.  

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