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February 18/19th Storm Potential


stormtracker
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Just now, jaydreb said:

Do you use Kuchera or 10:1 for these?  This might be a tough storm to assess because of all the sleet built into the snow totals.  

It is tough for some, yeah. These are all Kuchera (WxBell) when available, 10:1 when not. Sleet is not included, and if it were, the NAMs would be considerably higher. 

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3 minutes ago, ForestHillbilly said:

You can delete my post or ridicule me. But we have seen this before. This set up is ready to let us down. I hope not, but the models do not favor us.

But the situation does favor us.  High in the right place, western low some problem but not strong nor too far north, then coastal and by now it’s a drawn out event thru Friday. Highs 25-30 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is my first hypothesis at a theory that might evolve into a guess of a future forecast.   Any resemblance to other forecasts, living or dead, is completely coincidental.  

1stGuess.thumb.png.58a90bd13c2c5199def277f2ebcb3947.png

What is your forecast in regards to ice? I'm just under your 4-8" area in Baltimore County by the bay.. I have a feeling a good amount of freezing rain will show itself around here

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21 minutes ago, ILIKERAKE said:

What is your forecast in regards to ice? I'm just under your 4-8" area in Baltimore County by the bay.. I have a feeling a good amount of freezing rain will show itself around here

There will be significant ice in the 1-3 and 3-6" zones.  I think freezing rain will be a major problem just to the south of the 1-3" zone and through the 1-3" zone after it flips.  I think it will be mostly sleet in the 3-6" zone with some freezing rain mostly during periods of light precipitation.  

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