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hazwoper

February 18-19 Event

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11 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Eps is a bit further north than the op. You can tell it brings the mix line just south of 95. This is about the last run the ensembles are useful, so let's hope thats as far north as we get.

 

AAAE12A5-A6FC-4D78-8453-E3C1A573BC65.png

When you guys refer to 95, which 95 is it?  I'm in nj and there's the turnpike which is commonly referred to as 95. The 95 in Pennsylvania turns into 295 once it enters NJ.  I've always been curious. 

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3 minutes ago, yankeex777 said:

When you guys refer to 95, which 95 is it?  I'm in nj and there's the turnpike which is commonly referred to as 95. The 95 in Pennsylvania turns into 295 once it enters NJ.  I've always been curious. 

Same corridor imo but it's 95 in pa and NJ turnpike. Also, it doesn't turn into 295 anymore since they built the extension in bristol.

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Winter Storm Watch

for Lower Bucks County

 

Issued by National Weather Service

Philadelphia, PA

3:14 PM EST Tue, Feb 16, 2021

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

 

 

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to one quarter of an inch possible.

 

 

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware.

 

 

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Friday afternoon.

 

 

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

 

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will begin as snow Thursday morning, with the heaviest snowfall expected Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. Sleet and/or freezing rain will then mix in Thursday evening into Thursday night. Light wintry precipitation may continue into the daytime hours on Friday.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

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Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

Beautiful

U think it comes north like all other storms? Or that confluence stronger this storm an gonna go further south?

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17 hours ago, Albedoman said:

I had thought this exact same scenario playing out and stated in my blog a four  hours ago after the 18Z NAM run. Tonight's 0Z NAM runs looks like it is confirming my thoughts. Typical overrunning situation. Winter storm watches should be hiked by tomorrow evening for our area  if the NAM model stays consistent in tomorrows day runs  LMAO if the runs remain  consistent though. Its a keeper in my book after the crap we have tonight.

 

on cue. I think the total amount is more in tune with 8-12 right now as the models become more consistent and I also believe mixing will be not be as prevalent  from the LV north

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32 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

18z NAM with a huge front end thump for the Philly burbs into the Poconos.

Was there some freezing rain in there? Snow map only has a few inches for Philly but 6-8 in central and northern Montco. A foot for Berks County.

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24 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Was there some freezing rain in there? Snow map only has a few inches for Philly but 6-8 in central and northern Montco. A foot for Berks County.

If you're looking at the snow depth map it's probably due to sleet. This for the 18z 12k NAM. Snow map verbatim looks pretty nice.

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1 hour ago, yankeex777 said:

When you guys refer to 95, which 95 is it?  I'm in nj and there's the turnpike which is commonly referred to as 95. The 95 in Pennsylvania turns into 295 once it enters NJ.  I've always been curious. 

 

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Same corridor imo but it's 95 in pa and NJ turnpike. Also, it doesn't turn into 295 anymore since they built the extension in bristol.

I understand the logic of changing I-95 to I-295 ,but I can't stand it and will always call it '95.

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14 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

 

I understand the logic of changing I-95 to I-295 ,but I can't stand it and will always call it '95.

Before they realigned everything, 295 north would suddenly just turn into 95S right around when you cross over into pa over the Scuddersfalls bridge. It makes sense when you look at it on a map cause it's just one big circle, but still confusing. I think they changed that when they changed the exit numbers. 

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Damn, I've have been paying minimum attention due to outside issues but when did this turn into a long duration system? Early Thurs to Fri late morning/early afternoon??? Again, Damn... 

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13 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Damn, I've haven't been paying minimum attention due to outside issues but when did this turn into a long duration system? Early Thurs to Fri late morning/early afternoon??? Again, Damn... 

Last 24 hours has kind of trended that way.

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28 minutes ago, yankeex777 said:

Before they realigned everything, 295 north would suddenly just turn into 95S right around when you cross over into pa over the Scuddersfalls bridge. It makes sense when you look at it on a map cause it's just one big circle, but still confusing. I think they changed that when they changed the exit numbers. 

Ha ha, coming from New Jersey yeah. I'm traveling north into NJ and still would call it I-95.

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I still think main show for city is the initial thump. We probably lose some lift and mid level temps after. There are significant differences at this range on the models for what happens after the thump. It’s going to be the wildcard for turnpike N. The NAMs snow map looks similar to other models for the most part, but it gets there in a slightly different way.

in the grand scheme of things this storm looks better for the city than maybe any other event did at this range. I’m talking about consistency throughout each model. Last event the NAM never really came on board for Philly until real late etc etc. 

as for me, I’m going to setup shop somewhere NW of the city. Idk if I’ll be more west or north yet. I could stay home but with the timing I’ll be able to come home Friday. Isn’t like I’m diving 4 hours away or anything. 
 

right now for philly im still liking 4-7” with some sleet, but if we see a few more ticks colder at mid levels I’ll go 6-10” 

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DT has a map out.... first one of his this season that I think will verify. He Thinks the ice storm risk is significant. Makes sense the last interior ice storm hit almost this time of year was that 13-14?

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20 hours ago, Albedoman said:

I had thought this exact same scenario playing out and stated in my blog a four  hours ago after the 18Z NAM run. Tonight's 0Z NAM runs looks like it is confirming my thoughts. Typical overrunning situation. Winter storm watches should be hiked by tomorrow evening for our area  if the NAM model stays consistent in tomorrows day runs  LMAO if the runs remain  consistent though. Its a keeper in my book after the crap we have tonight.

 

ednesday Night
MT Holly pinpoint for Macungie is agreeable and makes sense to me with thinking 8-11 inches
 
 
Wed night--A chance of snow after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 20. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Thursday
Thurs--Snow. High near 29. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Thurs night-- Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 1am. Low around 27. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

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Latest 18z EURO more NAMish, WAA extends from the "finger" like feautre extending from the south. Thump rides that boundary as well as the sleet changeover line. Heavier snow focused just NW of city, as we should expect. Still a fun storm verbatim. 

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2 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said:

DT has a map out.... first one of his this season that I think will verify. He Thinks the ice storm risk is significant. Makes sense the last interior ice storm hit almost this time of year was that 13-14?

Is this the map? Looks like more of a Virginia feature, which they don't really need since they are still recovering from ice this past weekend:

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Just now, KamuSnow said:

Yeah, looks that way. Don't know if there's a second guess map yet.

I don't know his routine...it's confusing. So many guess maps then a final call. Since that one is 10+hrs old...it's probably dated.

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5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I don't know his routine...it's confusing. So many guess maps then a final call. Since that one is 10+hrs old...it's probably dated.

zenmsav6810 could clarify but he's holding his cards close to his vest....

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1 minute ago, KamuSnow said:

zenmsav6810 could clarify but he's holding his cards close to his vest....

Quite honestly his dated map seems to be pretty correct as far as I'm concerned and I would hold. 3-6" in/around Philly then 6 -8" (or so)  once you hit the burbs...

31F

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