Jump to content

February 18-19 Event


hazwoper
 Share

Recommended Posts

Rgem.... depicts several waves of snow.  Still snowing lightly Friday afternoon.  Much colder run. Philly never breaks 29 degrees ... aloft warms for a bit and sleet is introduced to southern sections but this model continues to trend colder so the sleet line may continue to be pushed 

7E6B82CC-3C06-4BC7-9FBB-5FCBE41F955C.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, LVwxHistorian said:

I'm new to models -- is 10:1 snow ratio always used in our area?  Can't see it used in say North Dakota in the middle of winter. 

It's a good default/average. Lower with wet snow obviously, higher with colder temps and good snowgrowth conditions higher up. Wind will knock down the high ratios due to fracturing of dendrites.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, LVwxHistorian said:

I'm new to models -- is 10:1 snow ratio always used in our area?  Can't see it used in say North Dakota in the middle of winter.

Yeah 9 times out of 10 we see 10:1 ratios around here. It's too early to know if we:ll see anything higher than those ratios but 10:1 is always a good benchmark for these kind of storms in these parts. Also important to note that any sleet being factored into those maps is more like 3:1 ratio. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm with ralph, every storm this year has ticked north as we got closer. I have a feeling that 95 and immediate burbs see much more sleet than currently progged . These warm layers are notoriously tough to get correct and many times they end up further north than modeled. Trust me I want a 6-8" storm to finish out the year, but I just have a feeling this one will end up 2-4" of cement for 95 And the burbs. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on the lehigh valley taking the brunt of this one. We'll see though, I'm going to miss the tracking, this month has been a blast in that regard.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro is a nice hit, definitely further south with the heaviest banding on the WAA snows than other guidance which is where we want it right now. The event is all snow for everyone except s jersey which gets some mixing towards but also gets the most qpf. Exactly where we want to be right now. I'm cautiously optimistic for a solid winter storm warning event region wide. 

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

Euro is similar to the rgem in its duration. Would be close to a 24 hour storm if they are correct.

  • Like 3
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

First call:

4-8" along and west of the NJ turnpike with 10" lollis N and W of 95. Won't be surprised if someone hits a foot in that area if these long duration solutions verify but will have to see as we get closer. For now I think double digit totals will be the max. 

2-4" south and east of the turnpike with heavy mixing of sleet. Should still remain all frozen though and many places on the shore should see their biggest event of the season. 

 

Cautiously optimistic for a region wide winter storm warning event. Should hopefully see plenty of pink on the mt holly page tomorrow.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

First call:

4-8" along and west of the NJ turnpike with 10" lollis N and W of 95. Won't be surprised if someone hits a foot in that area if these long duration solutions verify but will have to see as we get closer. For now I think double digit totals will be the max. 

2-4" south and east of the turnpike with heavy mixing of sleet. Should still remain all frozen though and many places on the shore should see their biggest event of the season. 

 

Cautiously optimistic for a region wide winter storm warning event. Should hopefully see plenty of pink on the mt holly page tomorrow.

I am glad it is trending towards more snow and less ice. You also never know if this will be the last major threat for the winter, so I would enjoy it. How much more north do you think it could come? Would that introduce more mixing?

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

I am glad it is trending towards more snow and less ice. You also never know if this will be the last major threat for the winter, so I would enjoy it.How much more north do you think it could come? Would that introduce more mixing?

Seasonal trend has seen the mix line come further 50-75 miles north but this storm has been a bit different as confluence to our north has been modeled stronger as we've gotten closer which hasn't typically been the case. We will have to monitor tomorrow if the seasonal trend of ticking north comes to fruition. If it does, I expect the mix line to hit the Philly area and immediate burbs in lower bucks/montco/mercer. It is almost certainly going to be all frozen though at this point which is great news. If we see that north tick, and I put it at a big if at this point, I would probably lower totals around 95 to 3-6" but I still think this will meet winter storm warning criteria for 95% of the region even if we see more mixing than currently progged.

  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest WXSIM with 12z NAM and 6 Z GFS has sleetfest 2021 on tap on Thursday - actual output shows about 3" of IP from my estimation

Thursday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the morning, then
 sleet likely in the afternoon. High 30. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 24. Wind
 northeast around 4 mph in the morning, becoming east around 8 mph, gusting to 15
 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground)
 accumulation about an inch.

 
 Thursday night: Dense overcast. Sleet likely in the evening, then a mix of
 freezing rain and sleet likely after midnight. Low 29, but temperatures rising
 after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 20 to 25. Wind east around 9 mph,
 gusting to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly around an inch. Ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch.
 Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.2 inches.

 
 Friday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. A
 chance of a mix of freezing rain, sleet, rain, and snow in the morning, then a
 slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 35. Wind chill around 27. Wind
 north-northwest around 7 mph, gusting to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation 50
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. No
 snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Little if any freezing rain
 accumulation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...