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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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7 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

Lightning has the whole western sky lit up in rehoboth, with the stars out. Dog kennel across the road from me all the dogs just started barking...maybe they can hear the thunder before we do

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

So far its a solid gusty thunderstorm. Raining hard but seems to be moving through quickly.

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5 hours ago, CAPE said:

So far its a solid gusty thunderstorm. Raining hard but seems to be moving through quickly.

The initial line moved through quickly, but on and off moderate to heavy showers continued for a few hours. 1.05" total.

The wind occurred along the outflow/gust front just ahead of the storm. Nothing severe.

 

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22 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

0.76" Monday night.

One of best light shows of the year so far.

Temp at 63 just before 6am.

Nearby PWS has a similar total. My cheapie plastic rain gauge has 1.1”. Kind of amazed it wasn’t more. Storms regenerated a few times overhead. Had a solid hour+ of heavy rain. 
 

Easily the most entertaining storm this year.

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9 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’m not sure but that 1978 one is the one I think my client who had gone to work at AC airport told me he picked up the very tops of our cells at 70,000.’

That Kettering storm was unbelievable.  I still remember the date -- July 10, 1978.    The hail was tennis ball size and took out all the west-facing windows of people's houses.  I remember my dad running from window to window helplessly as they shattered.  Everyone got new roofs too.  The Orlando storm caused $1,500 damage to my car and some neighborhoods had several inches of hail on the ground.

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About 1.7" last night on my station in Arlington in a little over an hour.  Trashcans were a complete mess last night floating down the street.  Running out with the constant flashes probably wasn't my best idea.

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9 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

That Kettering storm was unbelievable.  I still remember the date -- July 10, 1978.    The hail was tennis ball size and took out all the west-facing windows of people's houses.  I remember my dad running from window to window helplessly as they shattered.  Everyone got new roofs too.  The Orlando storm caused $1,500 damage to my car and some neighborhoods had several inches of hail on the ground.

We got a new roof too.  It was about the only thing on our house that looked good. Looking back, I feel bad for our neighbors having to look at our beaten down house and weed-filled yard every day.  :lol:

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1 hour ago, H2O said:

wx station said only .6" fell but there is no way.  It POURED for almost an hour.  Del Ray, Alexandria had over 2" and I'm not that far from there.

Didn't measure but we only had perhaps 30 minutes of moderate rain, reduced to light showers on that line's way east. Even the lightning/thunder was garden-variety summer thunderstorm here, but we were on the very southern edge of the roughest stuff. Radar did look intense to the north, though, and I wondered if there would be flash flooding in the usual trouble spots like Huntington and over by Wolf Trap.

And man...did I get an earful from Mrs. V this morning about the wx radio klaxons signaling flood warnings, which came through around 1:45 a.m. and 6:05 a.m. Since we rarely "flood" here, might have to disable those particular alerts... :yikes:

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32 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Didn't measure but we only had perhaps 30 minutes of moderate rain, reduced to light showers on that line's way east. Even the lightning/thunder was garden-variety summer thunderstorm here, but we were on the very southern edge of the roughest stuff. Radar did look intense to the north, though, and I wondered if there would be flash flooding in the usual trouble spots like Huntington and over by Wolf Trap.

And man...did I get an earful from Mrs. V this morning about the wx radio klaxons signaling flood warnings, which came through around 1:45 a.m. and 6:05 a.m. Since we rarely "flood" here, might have to disable those particular alerts... :yikes:

The county built a big dyke down near Huntington to prevent that one area from flooding so maybe it will pay off for these rain events.  Wolf Trap has a valley effect in places so that won't get any better with all the paving and storm drains.

Your hood is just low to begin with.  If y'all were a few feet lower you'd almost be tidal.  lol

I'm just getting frustrated with my VP2 wx station.  Its old.  Like 15 years old.  And the rain collector gets clogged too easily and not sure its measuring precip accurately anymore

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From MH AFD-

Saturday will be a return to more typical summer mugginess with highs potentially approaching 90 and dewpoints rising well into the 60s. Naturally, given the high Theta-E airmass ahead of the cold front and increasing mid-lvl flow ahead of the shortwave, convection (potentially strong-severe) could be a concern if the timing of the best forcing aligns well with the diurnal peak in instability... which is still to be determined.

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That cool radar-based rainfall totals map someone looked to recently shows that, as I suspected, I was right in the line of the heaviest rain, though about six blocks to the west of the deepest purples. Estimates 2.84" for me, and I believe it. Just poured and poured. Rushing rivers of water in the gutters, which I don't remember seeing very often. One really close lightning strike, but otherwise mainly just a great light show.

 

Screenshot_20210615-104847~2.png

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6 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

That Kettering storm was unbelievable.  I still remember the date -- July 10, 1978.    The hail was tennis ball size and took out all the west-facing windows of people's houses.  I remember my dad running from window to window helplessly as they shattered.  Everyone got new roofs too.  The Orlando storm caused $1,500 damage to my car and some neighborhoods had several inches of hail on the ground.

I was on Harry Truman Dr in Largo and hail was quarter sized and green hue to sky just sickly.  Luckily I got my car into a carport.

the house I was visiting  had 4 broken windows and shingle damage.  The siding was vinyl but many were metal and damaged 

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just saw that this happened in my neck of the woods last night…I don’t think I got a gust anywhere close to 88 but maybe 50
 

Tonight we want to recognize the heroic actions of Marine Emergency Team 26 . 

Just prior to this evenings storm, a distress call was recieved for a vessel stranded on the rocks at the Craighill Channel Upper Range Light. Marine Emergency Team 21 and Marine Emergency Team 26 responded. Marine unit 269 from MET 26 faced grave conditions including a reported water spout or possible tornado within a few hundred feet of their vessel. After rapidly extricating the stranded persons from the rocks around the lighthouse, MU269 advised they were unable to get into the marina. MU 269 had to ride out the storm in extremely high winds that toppled sea containers at the nearby Dundalk Marine Terminal. Segirt cranes at the terminal reported wind gusts up to  88mph.

After the incident Marine unit 217 and 219 from MET 21 remained with their vessels until all other units reported they were safe and back on land.

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Surprised no talk this morning of the LWX AFD for our severe prospects starting late Friday on @high risk  @Eskimo Joe @Kmlwx 

Quote
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will shift offshore on Fri with winds turning
southerly allowing warmer and more humid air to return to the
area. Moisture return increases in earnest Fri night with
potential for showers and thunderstorms to reach the Appalachian
region after dark associated with a strong shortwave trough
moving across the upper Great Lks. The ECMWF has been remarkably
consistent the past several days showing a complex of t-storms
reaching the Appalachian region around 12Z Sat. Unfortunately,
the 16/00Z run is delayed and not available at this time. The
00Z NAM synthetic imagery shows a huge complex of thunderstorms
over western Ohio Fri evening reaching the Appalachian region
late Fri night after midnight in a weakened stage.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will shift offshore by the start of the weekend
leading to increasing heat and humidity. A disturbance (noted by an
unseasonably strong upper jet) will cross the region Saturday posing
a risk for some showers and strong to severe thunderstorms, though
uncertainty exists due to any left over cloud cover or wind shifts
associated with upstream convection the day before.

After a brief break Sunday as the front from the day before stalls
just to the south, Monday into Tuesday of next week looks unsettled
as southerly flow returns. Increasing heat and humidity will likely
interact once again with an unseasonably strong upper jet, and there
may be a connection to tropical moisture with this one.
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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Too early to get interested in Fri/Sat. Without nuclear grade heat and an EML, it's going to be tough to get any MCS across the mountains. Debris clouds could spoil us Saturday...shocker.

Venting section:

It's early indeed and no two systems are the exact same. But I literally (Yeah... I said 'literally'. Don't cringe too hard.) was just thinking about the bolded statement and how it's these kind of potential events that are NOTORIOUS for screwing us over with early day cloud cover and/or convection that takes too long to clear out. (Think a 6z day 1 ENH+ for the region that becomes a 1630z or 20z Day 1 MRGL). 

 

Non-venting section:

Saturday definitely looks like the kind of day that would have 'higher than normal' severe potential if we don't get those infamous morning shenanigans mentioned in the above paragraph ruining steeper than normal MLLRs/EML given the likely swift deep-layer flow. 

As always... fingers crossed.

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