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Kmlwx

2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion

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15 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Yea the Southern tip of that put me over 1" for the day. Much more rain to my North going to be bad flooding from all this rain. The Potomac will be raging tomorrow for sure. 

Yep...the Monocacy too.  And just when the rivers were getting into good fishing shape.

The creek in our backyard is just about to break out of its banks...Think it may come up short though.

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TOR dropped. That's all she wrote. Impressive to see a rogue TOR warned cell for ~50 miles on an otherwise benign day.

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Just now, poolz1 said:

Yep...the Monocacy too.  And just when the rivers were getting into good fishing shape.

The creek in our backyard is just about to break out of its banks...Think it may come up short though.

Yea will have to look at Ballenger Creek right behind my house. It runs through a cow pasture back there, the cows get agitated when it floods. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@mappy hope you’re paying attention. That tornadic cell is heading towards you. Tornado from that just missed my uncle in Shenandoah Junction WV earlier. He said he saw it. 

 

 
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Petered out well before the county line.  They usually do or veer south. Nice relaxing shower now, a few rumbles of thunder.  Biggest performers of the night are the Gray Tree Frogs.  They are out in full force.  The hooters (Barred Owls) will be happy! :)

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Random 2% Tor probs along i95 from DC to RIC corridor into S MD that the new day 1 doesn't discuss... but MRGL risk up for all... 5 wind and 5 hail

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8 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

TOR dropped. That's all she wrote. Impressive to see a rogue TOR warned cell for ~50 miles on an otherwise benign day.

Didn't seem like there was enough to make one form so weather does some strange stuff when you least expect it.

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9 hours ago, toolsheds said:

heading towards @mappy

 

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@mappy hope you’re paying attention. That tornadic cell is heading towards you. Tornado from that just missed my uncle in Shenandoah Junction WV earlier. He said he saw it. 

 

 
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9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

@mappy looks safe. Probably going to swing well south from Glyndon into Hunt Valley.

 

8 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

@mappy was active on twitter about an hour ago. I think she was aware and keeping safe

thanks all. i was watching it from frederick as it moved east. i was on the northern edge of the cell. appreciate you all looking out! 

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44 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

 

 

thanks all. i was watching it from frederick as it moved east. i was on the northern edge of the cell. appreciate you all looking out! 

Glad you didn't end up like the witch in the Wizard of Oz!

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The latest run of the HRRR has some good cells erupting right over the area from 20z and after. This has been a change from the 06z run. So the 7, 8, 9 and now 10z have shown a similar progression of storms. Let's see if it holds. 

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19 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Glad you didn't end up like the witch in the Wizard of Oz!

I was def a little anxious about it when it was in Carroll, as it was moving more northeast then east at the time, then as it was weakening you could see it becoming more linear and moving east instead. got a lot of thunder and lightning from it though. 

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20 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The latest run of the HRRR has some good cells erupting right over the area from 20z and after. This has been a change from the 06z run. So the 7, 8, 9 and now 10z have shown a similar progression of storms. Let's see if it holds. 

Clear skies this morning will help.  Usually have some leftover OV crapvection overcast that messes things up

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hazy blue skies this morning under full sun. would love some more boomers. ill pass on tornado warned storms though

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

hazy blue skies this morning under full sun. would love some more boomers. ill pass on tornado warned storms though

Just send them over to Herndon, VA. I can PM you the specific location if you'd like. :)

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Just now, George BM said:

Just send them over to Herndon, VA. I can PM you the specific location if you'd like. :)

I agree but it is crazy humid, I do think that we need the rain though.

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12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I agree but it is crazy humid, I do think that we need the rain though.

Yeah, it's gotten a little bit on the dry side here lately.

 

Meanwhile, looking at satellite loops it looks like sunshine should remain ample at least into the early afternoon hours.

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The NAM nest has come around to showing some activity this PM now. 

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Further...the super long range HRRR has some nasty cells mainly to the south and east tomorrow. 

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

So hard to tell if that is a tornado, or just a really low wall cloud. No doubt there was damage from the cell. I think LWX said they'd be out there today to survey and see what they find. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

So hard to tell if that is a tornado, or just a really low wall cloud. No doubt there was damage from the cell. I think LWX said they'd be out there today to survey and see what they find. 

Yeah those images are potato quality. I always just wait for the survey. Although - based on the radar presentation I'd assume something along the TOR warned path will be found to have been a tornado. 

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13z HRRR is a little less robust until you get south of DC and then SE of DC. But still a good signal for something popping this afternoon. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Yeah those images are potato quality. I always just wait for the survey. Although - based on the radar presentation I'd assume something along the TOR warned path will be found to have been a tornado. 

Agreed. Def think they will find something out in WV, and maybe again east of Frederick. 

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21 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The NAM nest has come around to showing some activity this PM now. 

    Yeah, trends are definitely good, and the full 12z suite of CAMs is quite encouraging.    That said, despite some decent mid-level flow and inverted-V profiles,  low level winds in the forecast soundings are quite weak.    So, I'm enthusiastic about stronger storms in the area later today, but I think that not going any higher than MRGL right now makes sense.

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lol was coming to post the same

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