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Ralph Wiggum

February 15-16 Event

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14 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Euro trending more like cmc with phasing of the tpv, would warm things up here. Now looks like Thursday may be a better threat for frozen heh

Model mayhem. Wonder which of these waves/threats ends up the surprise.

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Is CAD going to be an issue with these storms?   I know the cold tends to hold on pretty well in the Berks County area.

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7 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

LOL...typical MA subforum back to back. Not busting, just funny...

ma.jpg

Nothing can be worse than when MA, philly and nyc were all one subforum.  Reading out model runs was so confusing.

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4 minutes ago, yankeex777 said:

Nothing can be worse than when MA, philly and nyc were all one subforum.  Reading out model runs was so confusing.

There's a reason why the Philly subforum doesn't need Mods.

Damn, I feel bad for Stormtracker, Mappy etc to deal w/this shit on a daily basis....

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Nam looks awful.. hopefully it doesn't continue it's recent hot streak because it looks like a gully washer shaping up at 84

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

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34 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

There's a reason why the Philly subforum doesn't need Mods.

Damn, I feel bad for Stormtracker, Mappy etc to deal w/this shit on a daily basis....

What's with all of the weenie's from green keeper

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6 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

What's with all of the weenie's from green keeper

That's his job and paid well. He's not allowed to post...just hand out weenies as needed, 24/7.

Weenie.jpg

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23 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Nam looks awful.. hopefully it doesn't continue it's recent hot streak because it looks like a gully washer shaping up at 84

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

Why are you evening looking at the 84 NAM?  Those thermals alone are waaaayyyy off.

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to see an Appalachian runner this time of the year in the current pattern is unreal. I just do not see this happening with the strong High bull-nosing down in the midwest  and southern plains with the extremely cold air. Its really a battle between the SE ridge and that dam high with the resulting  moisture getting rung further southeast with every passing wave. The SE ridge will have to give some now and force the lp further northeast. The current models are off big time resulting in chaos. I base this on not enough data from the NW PAC to be ingested in the models. I would bet this lp moves further SE  big time over the course of the next 48-72 hours and or another LP will form of the SC coast. Past historical weather patterns have demonstrated this

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6 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Why are you evening looking at the 84 NAM?  Those thermals alone are waaaayyyy off.

Guess you haven't been paying attention to the nam(and rgem) both cleaning the globals clock the last week in their long range.

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3 minutes ago, Newman said:

More ice Thursday and Friday. Here's a clown freezing rain map of both storms. If you're into destruction of the power grid you'll love this upcoming week

zr_acc.us_ne.png

The warning should definitely get out there. Glad I am prepared from this forum.

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GFS is just insanity. Places would need consecutive ice storm warnings days apart. We have a chance of light freezing rain Sunday/Monday. Then the Tuesday system (which hopefully trends colder in the mid levels to reduce ice and increase snow) and then the Thursday/Friday system which the Euro likes for more snow than ice, GFS disagrees as of now. Active week ahead

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18z euro also gets 95 and immediate nw burbs above freezing. Not quite as warm as nam/rgem but warmer than the cmc/gfs and bigger plain rain signal than ice. Heaviest precip arrives just as temps go above 32 for 95 and burbs. Big time ice out in lehigh valley though.

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

18z euro also gets 95 and immediate nw burbs above freezing. Not quite as warm as nam/rgem but warmer than the cmc/gfs and bigger plain rain signal than ice. Heaviest precip arrives just as temps go above 32 for 95 and burbs. Big time ice out in lehigh valley though.

It will almost undoubtedly get into the mid 30s at points during this extended wave train. I never bought into those extreme looks the NAM was showing though. You cant drive a low into Lake Erie with a molasses HP, nao ridging, and the PV sitting there. No place for that surface low to go but under us on Tuesday. Temps will be close but not a full blown warm flooding rainstorm. Probably trends back to a significant icing event tbh.

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15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

0z NAM much colder for Tuesday. Low pressure tracks into the Tenn Valley then jumps the coast. Close to a mostly frozen event now. 

as I said before the LP will jump to the coast. The NAM is starting to show this though the LP is further north than what I initially  thought . Sleet maybe a problem for the I-95 area but  I see more snow in the LV area and  less ice.

 

-to see an Appalachian runner this time of the year in the current pattern is unreal. I just do not see this happening with the strong High bull-nosing down in the midwest  and southern plains with the extremely cold air. Its really a battle between the SE ridge and that dam high with the resulting  moisture getting rung further southeast with every passing wave. The SE ridge will have to give some now and force the lp further northeast. The current models are off big time resulting in chaos. I base this on not enough data from the NW PAC to be ingested in the models. I would bet this lp moves further SE  big time over the course of the next 48-72 hours and or another LP will form of the SC coast. Past historical weather patterns have demonstrated this

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