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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

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NAM gives serious pause to Thursday. Way more amped and likely zero snow here as depicted. 

Because it's keying all of the energy on the lead vort heading west, our winds are very unfavorably out of the SW. (just as Nut said a few hours ago)

I liked this threat yesterday assuming NE flow with confluence - we need that or we're cooked. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

NAM gives serious pause to Thursday. Way more amped and likely zero snow here as depicted. 

Because it's keying all of the energy on the lead vort heading west, our winds are very unfavorably out of the SW. (just as Nut said a few hours ago)

I liked this threat yesterday assuming NE flow with confluence - we need that or we're cooked. 

Between the Globals and HI-Res models it is ridiculous right now in differences.  

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I know it’s the long range NAM, but it was absolutely the first model that sniffed out how progressive this system would be.

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I lost interest on the Monday/Tuesday thing 3 or 4 days ago. I never really believed the snow or ice that was being shown on models (at least for LSV).

More interest for Thursday. I do feel there will be a good thump of snow. Just how much and how long we hold on will be the key.

We will switch over to sleet or sleet/freezing rain and over to drizzle/dry slot.


.

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Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

Heaviest snow looks to target areas to our south.  Right where we want it :whistle:

Yeah not buying that at all. I think per GFS and Para they get a front end thump that is good for us. This low is coming north and attacking the high to our north. There is no suppression worries at least right now. It is actually a good sign to see the level of cold air drawn down into the MA. 

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Here' the map with no sleet.  I used Kuchera because temps are in the low 20's for nearly all of the snow portion.  About 8-10" for all of us.  Roughly same as previous 0Z.

snku_acc.us_state_pa.png

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1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Here' the map with no sleet.  I used Kuchera because temps are in the low 20's for nearly all of the snow portion.  About 8-10" for all of us.  Roughly same as previous 0Z.

 

Hey Carlisle,

 

That is actually 6Z.  

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24 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Heaviest snow looks to target areas to our south.  Right where we want it :whistle:

Bingo! Exactly...

Here are the snow maps just for the Thursday event for the 12z GFS, GFS Para & GEFS.

Lots of room to maneuver in any direction.

I like where we are sitting now.

688BA68E-1D37-496A-BDD1-65D60C4685B5.png

B1CF5E23-7185-4D62-BD9E-B70B098F8DE3.png

9013DE89-F240-47E9-80BA-4D7EB4536F4C.png

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