paweather Posted February 15 We talked about this last week, I think, living on the edge of p types. It is going to come down to game time with these models it is the winter pattern of sorts with them. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i'd go to Candersons parents house Truth! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted February 15 When in doubt turn to the ICON. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 NAM gives serious pause to Thursday. Way more amped and likely zero snow here as depicted. Because it's keying all of the energy on the lead vort heading west, our winds are very unfavorably out of the SW. (just as Nut said a few hours ago) I liked this threat yesterday assuming NE flow with confluence - we need that or we're cooked. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: NAM gives serious pause to Thursday. Way more amped and likely zero snow here as depicted. Because it's keying all of the energy on the lead vort heading west, our winds are very unfavorably out of the SW. (just as Nut said a few hours ago) I liked this threat yesterday assuming NE flow with confluence - we need that or we're cooked. Between the Globals and HI-Res models it is ridiculous right now in differences. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KPITSnow Posted February 15 I know it’s the long range NAM, but it was absolutely the first model that sniffed out how progressive this system would be. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted February 15 The ICON is a good ole fashion rainstorm tonight and tomorrow. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
canderson Posted February 15 Meanwhile at my parents’ in East Texas it’s 8 degrees and they have 9” snow. 5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Meanwhile at my parents’ in East Texas it’s 8 degrees and they have 9” snow. WOW. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, paweather said: The ICON is a good ole fashion rainstorm tonight and tomorrow. So is the Nam, GFS, Rgem, Hrrr, etc....Nam gets a light period of Frz before rain. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Superstorm Posted February 15 I lost interest on the Monday/Tuesday thing 3 or 4 days ago. I never really believed the snow or ice that was being shown on models (at least for LSV).More interest for Thursday. I do feel there will be a good thump of snow. Just how much and how long we hold on will be the key.We will switch over to sleet or sleet/freezing rain and over to drizzle/dry slot.. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: So is the Nam, GFS, Rgem, Hrrr, etc....Nam gets a light period of Frz before rain. Yep. What was modeled last week with the Monday/Tuesday system isn't now. This low cuts west and that is a given for warm air in PA. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted February 15 The ICON is nicely on board for Thursday so that should make everyone happy now! 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cambria County Wx Posted February 15 Moderate snow falling here. Looks like maybe a coating so far. Not looking forward to all the sleet and freezing rain tonight. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 WOW, GFS is a major snowstorm south of us through 75. A bit of suppression. Moderate snow in LSV. Edit-Heavier snow gets up into PA a bit later. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted February 15 Flip at 0z on the GFS. but a good front end thump I would think. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted February 15 Nice Snow map LOL. Let's hope! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Just now, paweather said: Nice Snow map LOL. Let's hope! You know that includes ice, right? :-). Its more like 5-7" on Pivotal. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted February 15 Just now, Bubbler86 said: You know that includes ice, right? :-). Its more like 5-7" on Pivotal. yeah sleet/ice. I'll take it all just will be a concrete yard better than dang wet. :-) 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted February 15 I guess it is time to look beyond this week? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted February 15 Para looks to be the same as the GFS. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, paweather said: Para looks to be the same as the GFS. Heaviest snow looks to target areas to our south. Right where we want it 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted February 15 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Heaviest snow looks to target areas to our south. Right where we want it Yeah not buying that at all. I think per GFS and Para they get a front end thump that is good for us. This low is coming north and attacking the high to our north. There is no suppression worries at least right now. It is actually a good sign to see the level of cold air drawn down into the MA. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CarlislePaWx Posted February 15 Here' the map with no sleet. I used Kuchera because temps are in the low 20's for nearly all of the snow portion. About 8-10" for all of us. Roughly same as previous 0Z. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: Here' the map with no sleet. I used Kuchera because temps are in the low 20's for nearly all of the snow portion. About 8-10" for all of us. Roughly same as previous 0Z. Hey Carlisle, That is actually 6Z. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 26 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Heaviest snow looks to target areas to our south. Right where we want it I feel much more comfortable seeing it south than north - especially in this setup. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CarlislePaWx Posted February 15 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Hey Carlisle, That is actually 6Z. Oops! Fooled again. I'll go look and see if there are any significant differences... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15 24 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Heaviest snow looks to target areas to our south. Right where we want it Bingo! Exactly... Here are the snow maps just for the Thursday event for the 12z GFS, GFS Para & GEFS. Lots of room to maneuver in any direction. I like where we are sitting now. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CarlislePaWx Posted February 15 ...12Z...not bad, a smidge less although 10" for Carlisle...lol... 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted February 15 Bubbler was about right 5-7" initial thump on the 12z Globals. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
