February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.

[PowellVolz]

Rally cap...long shot stuff.   I didn't feel like the 0z Euro was exactly benign centered on March 3.  Also, the 12z para-GFS has a low which takes the low road, but with a less than optimal thermal profile around the same time frame.  Cold is not exactly in play, but this is a ways out and things could change(for the better or worse).

Got to think SER shows up sooner than later and we start seeing cutters with thunderstorms.


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[Daniel Boone]

This late in the game, need that ridge in the west.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Got to think SER shows up sooner than later and we start seeing cutters with thunderstorms.


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Short term, yes.  Been saying the last week of Feb through March 3rd was going to be warm.  If the MJO rolls to 1-3, the SER will be squashed at some point after that time frame.  Seeing that scenario on some LR modeling operationals. Nothing a given at this point.  Real question is does the MJO loop back to 7 or turn to 1-2.  SER for the next week for sure.  Going to be a swampy mess.  I am of the opinion this is the same reset pattern that we have seen already twice this winter.  I could be wrong...won’t be the first and certainly won’t be the last.  

[Carvers Gap]

Definitely seeing bowling ball season commencing.  Just need to get one below us and time it with a trough.  

[Carvers Gap]

Half tunnel for the garden is about to go up!  @Stovepipe, when are you starting your tomato seeds?

[Stovepipe]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Half tunnel for the garden is about to go up!  @Stovepipe, when are you starting your tomato seeds?

Nice!  It's a downscaling year for me.  I've got a bunch of other things going on so I'm just going to buy a few plants.