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Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm


LVblizzard
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14 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Lol I've seen we've digressed into talking about '58 here. Just take your 16" inches and be happy. .... clearly too many weenies for breakfast. Nothing about this says Hecs, this is modeled as a reasonable Mecs. I dont think the low is deep enough. No wonder these storms always fall short of expectations when the expectations rise of the granddaddy of all PA blizzards-- what do you expect. 

I think the Para shows a nice solution however I think the gradient will be further south and tighter. Realistically there will be some dry slotting and probably a crust of sleet at some point. Somebody will probably see 20 to 22" out of this but you'd have to be color blind to see 50" on any of these maps!! 

 

 

Welp...

There is literally 50 inches on some of these runs.

A few weeks ago we laughed at 40 inches and whilst the placement was wrong...up by Binghamton saw that.

The intense moisture feed off the Atlantic will likely help someone achieve some ridiculous totals.  Maybe not 50...but someone could double up that 16.

I think this smells Hecsish, but of course mileage may vary at any one location.

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Was originally thinking precip rolls into the area 2-4pm tomorrow but looking at radar perhaps 12-2pm? I guess it depends on how much virga. Either way I think we're all set and let everything come together for a 1'+ storm for many. Feel like I've been tracking this for 2yrs...  

Final call for our area 8-16". Modest storm for us a 1-in-5 year event HERE. 

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11 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Lol yeah NAMs looking better. So which model(s) will guide your chase? Multiple choices. 50-75 miles NW, N, or NNE. 

Think Allentown best bet for me. Not that far really and is a better position if it forms a few ticks east than progged and they’re fine if it’s west

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5 hours ago, NJHurricane said:

Welp...

There is literally 50 inches on some of these runs.

A few weeks ago we laughed at 40 inches and whilst the placement was wrong...up by Binghamton saw that.

The intense moisture feed off the Atlantic will likely help someone achieve some ridiculous totals.  Maybe not 50...but someone could double up that 16.

I think this smells Hecsish, but of course mileage may vary at any one location.

It is amazing how it seems harder for us to get run of the mill 3-6” type snowstorm than it is to get 1-2 feet types 

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7 hours ago, Newman said:

Just loop the past 3 runs of both the NAM and RGEM at 500mb. I'm not posting the GIF's but:

1.) The RGEM is becoming LESS amplified with the trough. Not a lot, but enough.

2.) The NAM is becoming MORE amplified with the trough. Not a lot, but enough.

 

Middle ground consensus? It was clear the RGEM shifted NE. It was also clear the NAM came back west (and maybe could have even more). Jackpot is gonna be east of where the RGEM has it, west of where the NAM has it. Middle ground for everyone. Everyone wins. Goodnight

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